Open trading account 
Morning Users;
as expected last week the RBA kept Australian interest rates on hold at 2.0% whilst avoiding any suggestion that it would be taking a more dovish tone in coming months. The lack of a clear indication of possible further cuts gave the AUD some respite in the aftermath of the decision but sluggish retail sales figures, the largest ever trade deficit and stronger offshore data saw that the upside for the Aussie was short-lived.With the business week in Australia not getting underway until Tuesday following the Queen's Birthday public holiday the AUD will start the week at the whim of foreign markets. Chinese trade figures loom as the first real test of the week whilst any fallout from the G7 talkfest could also weigh on the currency. Later in the week we will see business confidence figures in Australia as well as consumer sentiment figures. These will then be closely followed by a speech from RBA Governor Stevens on Wednesday.Unemployment figures on Thursday do, however remain the big local data release for the Australian market this week with signs of increasing long-term unemployment beginning to make an impact on the local economy.US Non-Farm Payrolls data late last week showed a strong increase in May with 280,000 new jobs. Whilst this figure in itself was widely welcomed the increase in average earnings that accompanied this strong jobs growth was even more warmly received. The sense of buoyancy in employment markets in the US was however tempered by flat inflation growth and moderate signs of manufacturing growth. Retail sales data on Thursday will be closely watched and anticipated to see if the increase in wages is flowing through and resulting in increased consumer spending. That all being said it now appears even more likely that the US Fed will seriously look at increasing interest rates in September or the final quarter of 2015.Across the Tasman in New Zealand this week the RBNZ takes centre stage and the "will they or won't they" cut rates arguments have begun in earnest. Whilst many see this as a line ball call at this week's meeting we think that the RBNZ will take the plunge and cut by 0.25%, reversing the most recent rate increase. The still strong NZD must be remaining in the thoughts of RBNZ Governor Wheeler and the the nation's exporters. Whilst the rate cut would invariably heap even more pressure on the rampant Auckland housing market a cut this month seems a logical step following last months moves to adjust deposit requirements in the region.The Greek predicament continues to dominate European economic news particularly since the delay on Friday of the repayment to the IMF until the end of the month. The G7 meeting currently underway has urged Europe to fix the situation as a matter of utmost urgency to avoid continued impact o the region and global economies. The G7 is also reasserting its pressure on Russia with the prospect of continuing sanctions until Russia abides in full with last year's terms. Russia remains sidelined from what was then the G8. GDP data on Tuesday will be closely watched in the struggling euro zone with industrial production figures also top of mind. Bank of England Governor Carney will be speaking this week amidst a backdrop of industrial and manufacturing production data and house price figures.Chinese trade and price data will be closely watched on a global level early in the week and retail sales and new loans figures will provide further insight into the health of the domestic economy. Japanese data leads off the week. The revised GDP figure in particular will attract close attention with an expectation of 0.6% growth for the first quarter ending the short period of recession.
Regards
as expected last week the RBA kept Australian interest rates on hold at 2.0% whilst avoiding any suggestion that it would be taking a more dovish tone in coming months. The lack of a clear indication of possible further cuts gave the AUD some respite in the aftermath of the decision but sluggish retail sales figures, the largest ever trade deficit and stronger offshore data saw that the upside for the Aussie was short-lived.With the business week in Australia not getting underway until Tuesday following the Queen's Birthday public holiday the AUD will start the week at the whim of foreign markets. Chinese trade figures loom as the first real test of the week whilst any fallout from the G7 talkfest could also weigh on the currency. Later in the week we will see business confidence figures in Australia as well as consumer sentiment figures. These will then be closely followed by a speech from RBA Governor Stevens on Wednesday.Unemployment figures on Thursday do, however remain the big local data release for the Australian market this week with signs of increasing long-term unemployment beginning to make an impact on the local economy.US Non-Farm Payrolls data late last week showed a strong increase in May with 280,000 new jobs. Whilst this figure in itself was widely welcomed the increase in average earnings that accompanied this strong jobs growth was even more warmly received. The sense of buoyancy in employment markets in the US was however tempered by flat inflation growth and moderate signs of manufacturing growth. Retail sales data on Thursday will be closely watched and anticipated to see if the increase in wages is flowing through and resulting in increased consumer spending. That all being said it now appears even more likely that the US Fed will seriously look at increasing interest rates in September or the final quarter of 2015.Across the Tasman in New Zealand this week the RBNZ takes centre stage and the "will they or won't they" cut rates arguments have begun in earnest. Whilst many see this as a line ball call at this week's meeting we think that the RBNZ will take the plunge and cut by 0.25%, reversing the most recent rate increase. The still strong NZD must be remaining in the thoughts of RBNZ Governor Wheeler and the the nation's exporters. Whilst the rate cut would invariably heap even more pressure on the rampant Auckland housing market a cut this month seems a logical step following last months moves to adjust deposit requirements in the region.The Greek predicament continues to dominate European economic news particularly since the delay on Friday of the repayment to the IMF until the end of the month. The G7 meeting currently underway has urged Europe to fix the situation as a matter of utmost urgency to avoid continued impact o the region and global economies. The G7 is also reasserting its pressure on Russia with the prospect of continuing sanctions until Russia abides in full with last year's terms. Russia remains sidelined from what was then the G8. GDP data on Tuesday will be closely watched in the struggling euro zone with industrial production figures also top of mind. Bank of England Governor Carney will be speaking this week amidst a backdrop of industrial and manufacturing production data and house price figures.Chinese trade and price data will be closely watched on a global level early in the week and retail sales and new loans figures will provide further insight into the health of the domestic economy. Japanese data leads off the week. The revised GDP figure in particular will attract close attention with an expectation of 0.6% growth for the first quarter ending the short period of recession.
Regards