The Telegraph nicely sums up the long-term implications of the fiscal impasse in Washington in a story that’s being passed around. A deal is close but it’s a limited can kicking exercise and with a Congress increasingly filled with zealots, it’s impossible to imagine the near-future with a properly functioning Congress. It’s also impossible to envision a future where the dollar is a more-dominant currency; instead it will gradually lose influence (and value).
Politics are grabbing the headlines but the bigger trend isn’t political. The dollar is the middle-man in many international financial because of historical lack of transparency elsewhere and high transaction costs. Foreign markets becoming more transparent, time is allowing them to build a track record and technology is driving down direct trading costs. More than politics, those will be the drivers of the decline of the dollar.
Politics are grabbing the headlines but the bigger trend isn’t political. The dollar is the middle-man in many international financial because of historical lack of transparency elsewhere and high transaction costs. Foreign markets becoming more transparent, time is allowing them to build a track record and technology is driving down direct trading costs. More than politics, those will be the drivers of the decline of the dollar.