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I came across an interesting article on Yahoo Finance ” Forex Outlook for June“ and thought I would share my opinion with you. Generally, I think Forex is expected to be very volatile this year, because of drop of gold prices and slowdown of economy in China. Economic slowdown in China is mostly due to substantial decline in exports in response to recession in Europe and US, inflated property prices and generally inflation in China is on a rise. Also, China unsuccessfully tried to burst the bubble in the real estate sector since the past few years. Naturally, it impacting the commodity prices and will lead to devaluation of Chinese currency.
Furthermore, the biggest players in Forex will be Asian currencies. I expect US dollar to go substantially higher against Japan, Korea, Thailand and other currencies of Asian countries. On Friday last week, the President of Sony said if the dollar/yen would reach 110 yen to dollar Sony profits will be 150 percent higher. And at this point, most likely the Bank of Japan will try to lead currencies. Now, most likely the big loser could be Australian dollar and it should go much lower due to China devaluation and the drop in gold prices.
Over last weekend, in response to lower than expected Chinese data, the Australian dollar fell lower and trading below 0.9499, a new low and I think we can expect it to go even lower.