• GBP/JPY gapped up on Monday and continued trading higher during the European morning. The advance was stopped by the 153.60 (R1) resistance line and then the rate retreated somewhat. Bearing in mind that the bulls managed to overcome the 152.00 (S1), I believe that there is the possibility for another positive leg. A break above 153.60 (R1) could confirm the case and perhaps target our next resistance zone of 155.00 (R2), which stands slightly above the 50% retracement level of the 31st of May – 16th of June decline. Our short-term oscillators detect upside speed but they also give evidence that a setback may be on the cards before the next positive leg, perhaps even below 152.00 (S1). The RSI hit resistance slightly above 70 and turned down, while the MACD, shows signs that it could start topping slightly above its zero line. Switching to the daily chart, I see that the break below 152.00 (S1) on the 13th of June signaled the downside exit of the wide range the pair had been trading since the 18th of February, between that key support zone and the resistance of 163.00. Then, the rate printed a lower low at around 145.40. In my view, this keeps the longer-term outlook to the downside. Therefore, I would treat any further short-term advances as a corrective move for now.
  • Support: 152.00 (S1), 150.80 (S2), 149.50 (S3)
  • Resistance: 153.60 (R1), 155.00 (R2), 156.00 (R3)
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