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Morning Dears; we see last from Fx Market.
The FX traders’ attention shifted to China at early trading hours. The soft consumer and producer price inflation and slowdown in Chinese exports (from 15.3% to 11.6%) revived speculations for additional monetary stimulus in the coming months. The PPI y/y hit a 32-month low of -2.2%, confirming that despite direct liquidity injections and repo rate cuts in September and October, China is running below its full capacity. In this respect, the macro fundamentals in China hint at further PBoC easing. Although the PBoC refrains from a global rate cut, dovish PBoC actions should intensify in Q4.In addition to market supportive PBoC expectations, news that Shanghai – Hong Kong connect program will be effective from November 17th and allow a net 23.5 billion Yuan cross-border purchases boosted inflows into Chinese stock markets. The PBoC raised Yuan daily reference rate to 6.1377 per dollar, the strongest since March to avoid further CNY appreciation.We are heading into a date-full week in China: new yuan loans and aggregate financing RMB, October money supply, retail sales, industrial production as well as FDI should give direction to Yuan through the week. Given the slight pick-up in trend momentum with the help of PBoC, we suspect a formation of base above 6.1000/80 area and expect a bounce back toward 6.15 (Fib 50% on January – April rally) as divergence between Fed/PBoC deepens. In the option markets, offers dominate pre-6.20 for the month ahead, the 3-month (25-delta) risk reversals sit at 5-year highs suggesting a steady rise if 6.10 base holds. Zoom into AUDDovish PBoC expectations lifted AUD/USD to 0.8683 in Sydney, yet the ongoing weakness in iron ore prices still weigh heavy on Aussie-complex. Iron ore delivered to China is heading toward $75 for the first time since mid-2009, the record low stands at $64.06 (at launch on May 29th, 2009). According to Australian PM Abbott, there is no strict assumption of lower iron ore prices, however deflationary fears should keep the selling pressures tight in AUD. The AUD/USD pares last week losses. In the absence of important US/Australian data, the focus remains on China. We see resistance at 0.8747/90 area (21-dma / MACD pivot) and bet for a re-test of 0.85 support.EUR/AUD remains well bid at 50/100-dma (1.4367/68), as 50-dma tests 100-dma on the upside. The technical bias should remain positive for a daily close above 1.4435/45 (MACD pivot / 21-dma). The ascending Ichimoku cloud (1.4192/1.4392) suggests further development of the bull market. Resistance stands at 200-dma (currently at 1.4644).GBP/AUD trades in the tight range of 1.8316/91 before UK labor data and BoE’s Quarterly Inflation Report due on Wednesday. Following the aggressive cut in wage growth forecast at last quarter IR, markets stand ready for lower UK growth and inflation forecasts from the BoE, given the gloomy economic outlook in the Euro-area. Indeed, the UK exports slumped by 11% over the past year and the uncertain situation across the Channel will keep the BoE alert. This being said, the selling pressures in GBP-complex should also translate into lower GBP/AUD this week. A daily close below 1.8238 (MACD pivot) should signal the end of the bullish correction period. The candle pattern analysis print the formation of shooting star (conviction 5/9) strengthening our bearish short-term technical view.Bye by @FxCox
The FX traders’ attention shifted to China at early trading hours. The soft consumer and producer price inflation and slowdown in Chinese exports (from 15.3% to 11.6%) revived speculations for additional monetary stimulus in the coming months. The PPI y/y hit a 32-month low of -2.2%, confirming that despite direct liquidity injections and repo rate cuts in September and October, China is running below its full capacity. In this respect, the macro fundamentals in China hint at further PBoC easing. Although the PBoC refrains from a global rate cut, dovish PBoC actions should intensify in Q4.In addition to market supportive PBoC expectations, news that Shanghai – Hong Kong connect program will be effective from November 17th and allow a net 23.5 billion Yuan cross-border purchases boosted inflows into Chinese stock markets. The PBoC raised Yuan daily reference rate to 6.1377 per dollar, the strongest since March to avoid further CNY appreciation.We are heading into a date-full week in China: new yuan loans and aggregate financing RMB, October money supply, retail sales, industrial production as well as FDI should give direction to Yuan through the week. Given the slight pick-up in trend momentum with the help of PBoC, we suspect a formation of base above 6.1000/80 area and expect a bounce back toward 6.15 (Fib 50% on January – April rally) as divergence between Fed/PBoC deepens. In the option markets, offers dominate pre-6.20 for the month ahead, the 3-month (25-delta) risk reversals sit at 5-year highs suggesting a steady rise if 6.10 base holds. Zoom into AUDDovish PBoC expectations lifted AUD/USD to 0.8683 in Sydney, yet the ongoing weakness in iron ore prices still weigh heavy on Aussie-complex. Iron ore delivered to China is heading toward $75 for the first time since mid-2009, the record low stands at $64.06 (at launch on May 29th, 2009). According to Australian PM Abbott, there is no strict assumption of lower iron ore prices, however deflationary fears should keep the selling pressures tight in AUD. The AUD/USD pares last week losses. In the absence of important US/Australian data, the focus remains on China. We see resistance at 0.8747/90 area (21-dma / MACD pivot) and bet for a re-test of 0.85 support.EUR/AUD remains well bid at 50/100-dma (1.4367/68), as 50-dma tests 100-dma on the upside. The technical bias should remain positive for a daily close above 1.4435/45 (MACD pivot / 21-dma). The ascending Ichimoku cloud (1.4192/1.4392) suggests further development of the bull market. Resistance stands at 200-dma (currently at 1.4644).GBP/AUD trades in the tight range of 1.8316/91 before UK labor data and BoE’s Quarterly Inflation Report due on Wednesday. Following the aggressive cut in wage growth forecast at last quarter IR, markets stand ready for lower UK growth and inflation forecasts from the BoE, given the gloomy economic outlook in the Euro-area. Indeed, the UK exports slumped by 11% over the past year and the uncertain situation across the Channel will keep the BoE alert. This being said, the selling pressures in GBP-complex should also translate into lower GBP/AUD this week. A daily close below 1.8238 (MACD pivot) should signal the end of the bullish correction period. The candle pattern analysis print the formation of shooting star (conviction 5/9) strengthening our bearish short-term technical view.Bye by @FxCox