This seems rather speculative, so I am uncertain about how much attention to give it. But I’m positing it, it may well be useful – comments welcome.

The Wall Street Journal (ungated) asks if the cash crunch we saw in June in China could be repeated in September:

The causes of the June cash crunch that pushed short-term borrowing rates close to 30%, triggering a sell-off in the mainland’s equity and bond markets, were complex. But analysts break it down into five main factors. Some of them look set to return.

The Journal highlights these 5 factors that could lead to a September cash crunch

  1. Capital outflows in June could resume
  2. End-of-quarter demand for cash
  3. Wealth-management products falling due … banks may have to hit the money markets for funds
  4. Government departments end of quarter draw-down of bank deposits
  5. Actions of the big banks

Another liquidity scare in China would weigh on the AUD, but whether or not we see it September … I dunno.

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