Open trading account 
Technical
Monthly
Reversal candle that we've discussed last time has become even greater and has increased its reversal quality. As we have said previously - EUR right now shows many bearish signs, as mentioned reversal candle, inability to reach YPR1 etc.
Now short-term sentiment shows that US rate hike expectation has dropped, but not drastically and summer rate change is possible. Impact of previos poor NFP was mild and many analysts expect high NFP data on June.
Currently EUR stands at rather strong support area. This is lower border of downward channel and all-time 5/8 Fib support. Here EUR has formed Butterfly "buy" and it has reached first 1.27 extension here.
EUR is forming typical reversal candle in May. Price has moved above April top and tends to close below April's lows. It could not get extended continuation, but usually market shows downward continuation within next 1-3 candles. But we're on monthly chart guys...
Sometimes reversal candles lead to collapse, as it was on EUR around 1.40 area. Thrust down has started particularly by reversal candle in March 2014.
Also, market starts to show signs of bearish dynamic pressure. Although trend has turned bullish in summer of 2015 - EUR still can't abandon sideways consolidation and move above 1.15 area.
Finally EUR was not able to reach YPR1 and returned right back down to YPP. This is bearish sign. Following this logic next destination could be YPS1 right around parity and 1.618 butterfly target. This is just another destination point that we have here.
That's being said, appearing of reversal candle brings nothing good to bulls. Currently we can't precisely forecast the consequences of its appearing, but even minor results will bring 1-2 months of downward action inside current 1.04 -1.15 consolidation... Although potential bearish impact could be even stronger.
Finally we have another bearish sign that looks like bearish dynamic pressure. Take a look that although trend holds bullish - market shows inablitity to move up, even from strong support area. Next strong support stands precisely at parity and will become a culmination of downward action, since this level includes support line, YPS1 and butterfly 1.618 target. Brexit results hardly will bring prosperity to EU and probably will become another bearish driving factor for EUR.
That's being said, we treat long-term perspective for EUR as moderately bearish. Any rate hike from the Fed will accelearte dropping here.
[img class=CToWUd a6T src=https://ci6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/xBE3NUvdJXtq1OLM3lLlkXsCEfYW41Mye15D3AJhmfVy6VQ2vxaek4GhLLwWSKC6J4bretotnUvTTKQXlbYEA2gR8qnZVXAlHAzAQnXiSJwOMbknT1-lbnTjC15CFALo3P_C=s0-d-e1-ft#http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/community/attachments/eur_m_27_06_16-png.25956/]
Weekly
Here we first recall what we've said last time.
Trend has turned bearish on weekly chart. Market has dropped below MPS1. These moments give a hint that current move down could get further continuation. Despite multiple fluctuations in wide range - market keeps valid the shape of butterfly. It is especially interesting that during last upside action EUR has stopped slightly below the top of major butterfly swing. As well as 1.05 low was slightly higher that low of March 2015. This lets EUR to keep chances on this large butterfly that has the same targets around parity as monthly one by the way....
But let's get closer to shorter-term perspective. Careful analysis of the swings shows that EUR keeps almost equal all downward harmonic swings inside this consolidation. Sometimes they are slightly greater, sometimes slightly smaller, but this difference is mild and mostly they are equal. So, we've estimated that that EUR should move slightly lower to major 50% support around 1.1060 area.Now this has happened.
Here again we mostly support our previous view that EUR will move down further. This stubborn standing around 1.1050-1.11could be explained combination of daily levels and YPP. But on Brexit turmoil EUR has pierced it strongly and right now this level becomes weaker and we have reversal candle on monthly chart.
Take a look carefully at weekly chart - we have drop out from the top. Last time when this has happened EUR has doubled harmonic swing on a way down and reached 1.05 lows. As we have similar situation here - harmonic swing again could be doubled. In this case we again will appear around 1.05 lows.
But this is not the end guys. Right now we see relatively rare candlestick pattern that calls "3 black crows". This is bearish reversal pattern and very often becomes a sign for significant downward action. Thus, in perspective of 1-2 months we really could get downward continuation here, on EUR.
And finally in last 3-4 weeks we clearly see inability of market to turn up again. This behavior amazingly correpsonds to the same action when EUR has dropped down from 1.16 top. After first wave of drop - it also has tried to turn up by some retracement but later failed and dropped to 1.05. Here we see very similar behavior.
If this time we will get the same continuation as last time, i.e. double of harmonic siwng - then, we again should appear around 1.05 area... But second appearing of the price there could become a fatal and EUR easily will follow to butterfly target and parity destination.
[img class=CToWUd a6T src=https://ci5.googleusercontent.com/proxy/xun3jLxDYc29RkYvuTO8qx6cdjYo5Ys5c7972ydihmzJmWqNJIE_Xz4HhLsJeSiACS5L_aJwNWYnId_aue5CvQTeVKtpbcQ2Ik9eFQMa0M1TqPGSshynY5gOCdggG4OTyfgb=s0-d-e1-ft#http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/community/attachments/eur_w_27_06_16-png.25957/]
Daily
Daily chart shed some more light on perspectives of price action in nearest future. As we've estimated on weekly chart - EUR has broken harmonic swing tendency to the downside. On daily chart it takes shape of steep AB=CD pattern that creates an Agreement with major 5/8 Fib level.
On Friday downward action was held by extreme oversold and strong support area and upside retracement has started.
As CD leg is very fast and steep - it suggests more action to the downside. Particularly speaking - to 1.618 target of this AB-CD after retracement will finish. If this will happen - then market definitely will reach previous lows. And as we've estimated above - significantly will increase chances to reach major target around parity.
Thus, overall situation around EUR stands bearish.
[img class=CToWUd a6T src=https://ci4.googleusercontent.com/proxy/4ZHcnvqoT4xvBLIHfTRH2IZSJfPxif7iEzPaESYnPSnTRbJFx8zUSs-Ee2zQ6_ejZ_iSLgVE_E50rpwoA7tga_mOCQIVtX_yklSVcJUKAoCLD06vXyKLcR3zys4isgAwgw6C=s0-d-e1-ft#http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/community/attachments/eur_d_27_06_16-png.25958/]
Hourly
So, upside retracement could take different shape, and become slightly higher or lower. Right now EUR already has reached it's favorite 50% resistance and it could happen that upside retracement will stop right here.
At the same time we have potential butterfly "Sell" pattern that should finish at next 1.23 major Fib level. Thus, somewhere between 50% and 61.8% Fib level and as butterfly will be completed - EUR could turn down. At least on Monday we will monitor for this setup.
[img class=CToWUd a6T src=https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/5_gV0j_9bmKGcZRdJVK8B112kKYWowqqKW1kyUuGwvQZ5822htEb2dexPJClYuk99yqGpaiQctm3CgnPajN16yq9pUmHSuuNFXBwv5FhislAV8zgAlrU0tfLwOOG21JyDCbMAw=s0-d-e1-ft#http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/community/attachments/eur_1h_27_06_16-png.25959/]
Conclusion:
Support where market stands on monthly chart is very long-term and wide. Standing there could last for months or even years, and may be sometime upward action will happen there. But right now, EUR shows bearish signs for perspective of 1-2 months. It's really high probability exists that move down will continue at least to 1.05 area or even deeper.
Monthly
Reversal candle that we've discussed last time has become even greater and has increased its reversal quality. As we have said previously - EUR right now shows many bearish signs, as mentioned reversal candle, inability to reach YPR1 etc.
Now short-term sentiment shows that US rate hike expectation has dropped, but not drastically and summer rate change is possible. Impact of previos poor NFP was mild and many analysts expect high NFP data on June.
Currently EUR stands at rather strong support area. This is lower border of downward channel and all-time 5/8 Fib support. Here EUR has formed Butterfly "buy" and it has reached first 1.27 extension here.
EUR is forming typical reversal candle in May. Price has moved above April top and tends to close below April's lows. It could not get extended continuation, but usually market shows downward continuation within next 1-3 candles. But we're on monthly chart guys...
Sometimes reversal candles lead to collapse, as it was on EUR around 1.40 area. Thrust down has started particularly by reversal candle in March 2014.
Also, market starts to show signs of bearish dynamic pressure. Although trend has turned bullish in summer of 2015 - EUR still can't abandon sideways consolidation and move above 1.15 area.
Finally EUR was not able to reach YPR1 and returned right back down to YPP. This is bearish sign. Following this logic next destination could be YPS1 right around parity and 1.618 butterfly target. This is just another destination point that we have here.
That's being said, appearing of reversal candle brings nothing good to bulls. Currently we can't precisely forecast the consequences of its appearing, but even minor results will bring 1-2 months of downward action inside current 1.04 -1.15 consolidation... Although potential bearish impact could be even stronger.
Finally we have another bearish sign that looks like bearish dynamic pressure. Take a look that although trend holds bullish - market shows inablitity to move up, even from strong support area. Next strong support stands precisely at parity and will become a culmination of downward action, since this level includes support line, YPS1 and butterfly 1.618 target. Brexit results hardly will bring prosperity to EU and probably will become another bearish driving factor for EUR.
That's being said, we treat long-term perspective for EUR as moderately bearish. Any rate hike from the Fed will accelearte dropping here.
[img class=CToWUd a6T src=https://ci6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/xBE3NUvdJXtq1OLM3lLlkXsCEfYW41Mye15D3AJhmfVy6VQ2vxaek4GhLLwWSKC6J4bretotnUvTTKQXlbYEA2gR8qnZVXAlHAzAQnXiSJwOMbknT1-lbnTjC15CFALo3P_C=s0-d-e1-ft#http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/community/attachments/eur_m_27_06_16-png.25956/]
Weekly
Here we first recall what we've said last time.
Trend has turned bearish on weekly chart. Market has dropped below MPS1. These moments give a hint that current move down could get further continuation. Despite multiple fluctuations in wide range - market keeps valid the shape of butterfly. It is especially interesting that during last upside action EUR has stopped slightly below the top of major butterfly swing. As well as 1.05 low was slightly higher that low of March 2015. This lets EUR to keep chances on this large butterfly that has the same targets around parity as monthly one by the way....
But let's get closer to shorter-term perspective. Careful analysis of the swings shows that EUR keeps almost equal all downward harmonic swings inside this consolidation. Sometimes they are slightly greater, sometimes slightly smaller, but this difference is mild and mostly they are equal. So, we've estimated that that EUR should move slightly lower to major 50% support around 1.1060 area.Now this has happened.
Here again we mostly support our previous view that EUR will move down further. This stubborn standing around 1.1050-1.11could be explained combination of daily levels and YPP. But on Brexit turmoil EUR has pierced it strongly and right now this level becomes weaker and we have reversal candle on monthly chart.
Take a look carefully at weekly chart - we have drop out from the top. Last time when this has happened EUR has doubled harmonic swing on a way down and reached 1.05 lows. As we have similar situation here - harmonic swing again could be doubled. In this case we again will appear around 1.05 lows.
But this is not the end guys. Right now we see relatively rare candlestick pattern that calls "3 black crows". This is bearish reversal pattern and very often becomes a sign for significant downward action. Thus, in perspective of 1-2 months we really could get downward continuation here, on EUR.
And finally in last 3-4 weeks we clearly see inability of market to turn up again. This behavior amazingly correpsonds to the same action when EUR has dropped down from 1.16 top. After first wave of drop - it also has tried to turn up by some retracement but later failed and dropped to 1.05. Here we see very similar behavior.
If this time we will get the same continuation as last time, i.e. double of harmonic siwng - then, we again should appear around 1.05 area... But second appearing of the price there could become a fatal and EUR easily will follow to butterfly target and parity destination.
[img class=CToWUd a6T src=https://ci5.googleusercontent.com/proxy/xun3jLxDYc29RkYvuTO8qx6cdjYo5Ys5c7972ydihmzJmWqNJIE_Xz4HhLsJeSiACS5L_aJwNWYnId_aue5CvQTeVKtpbcQ2Ik9eFQMa0M1TqPGSshynY5gOCdggG4OTyfgb=s0-d-e1-ft#http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/community/attachments/eur_w_27_06_16-png.25957/]
Daily
Daily chart shed some more light on perspectives of price action in nearest future. As we've estimated on weekly chart - EUR has broken harmonic swing tendency to the downside. On daily chart it takes shape of steep AB=CD pattern that creates an Agreement with major 5/8 Fib level.
On Friday downward action was held by extreme oversold and strong support area and upside retracement has started.
As CD leg is very fast and steep - it suggests more action to the downside. Particularly speaking - to 1.618 target of this AB-CD after retracement will finish. If this will happen - then market definitely will reach previous lows. And as we've estimated above - significantly will increase chances to reach major target around parity.
Thus, overall situation around EUR stands bearish.
[img class=CToWUd a6T src=https://ci4.googleusercontent.com/proxy/4ZHcnvqoT4xvBLIHfTRH2IZSJfPxif7iEzPaESYnPSnTRbJFx8zUSs-Ee2zQ6_ejZ_iSLgVE_E50rpwoA7tga_mOCQIVtX_yklSVcJUKAoCLD06vXyKLcR3zys4isgAwgw6C=s0-d-e1-ft#http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/community/attachments/eur_d_27_06_16-png.25958/]
Hourly
So, upside retracement could take different shape, and become slightly higher or lower. Right now EUR already has reached it's favorite 50% resistance and it could happen that upside retracement will stop right here.
At the same time we have potential butterfly "Sell" pattern that should finish at next 1.23 major Fib level. Thus, somewhere between 50% and 61.8% Fib level and as butterfly will be completed - EUR could turn down. At least on Monday we will monitor for this setup.
[img class=CToWUd a6T src=https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/5_gV0j_9bmKGcZRdJVK8B112kKYWowqqKW1kyUuGwvQZ5822htEb2dexPJClYuk99yqGpaiQctm3CgnPajN16yq9pUmHSuuNFXBwv5FhislAV8zgAlrU0tfLwOOG21JyDCbMAw=s0-d-e1-ft#http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/community/attachments/eur_1h_27_06_16-png.25959/]
Conclusion:
Support where market stands on monthly chart is very long-term and wide. Standing there could last for months or even years, and may be sometime upward action will happen there. But right now, EUR shows bearish signs for perspective of 1-2 months. It's really high probability exists that move down will continue at least to 1.05 area or even deeper.