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[b]Core Durable Goods Orders
[/b]Core Durable Goods Orders
The US Core Durable Goods Orders indicator measures the change in value of durable orders placed with manufacturers, excluding transportation items. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.
8:30am(NY Time)
US Durable Goods Orders
Actual??? Forecast 0.1% Previous 1.1%
ACTION:USD/JPY
BUY1.9%
SELL -1.7%.
Our focus will be on the Core Durable Goods, or Durable Goods Ex. it is what most bankers focus on. This report has been losing its impact since the beginning of the year, and the actual release number must be a huge surprise for the market to react.
If the deviation is over 1.8% higher, then I would look to BUY USD/JPY, if the deviation is 1.8% lower, then I would look to SELL USD/JPY. Remember the idea is to get a surprise number, if the number is veryclose to release price, then there is no trade whatsoever.
One important correlation to be aware of is the Housing data for the month of June; since Durable Goods Data is closely associated with home sales, we could be looking at a higher than expected release number.
UPDATED: Durable Goods number came out much worse than expectation at -2.5%, but the Core Durable Goods was actually positive 1.1%. The Core Durable Goods is aderivative of the headline number minus the transportation factor, which varies
from season to season.
Traders focus on the Core, also known as Durable Goods EX.Transportation, because it is a more accurate reflection of the market. Upon verifying that the Core and Headline are in conflict, I decided that there are no valid reason (news wise) for this trade.