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On September 6th, the US Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) number will be released. This particular figure measures the monthly change in the number of recently employed individuals in the United States. As the NFP name suggests, this total does not include people employed in the farming sector. If the released NFP number is higher than the number forecasted by economists, the US dollar is likely to increase in value. After all, the creation of jobs is an extremely important indicator when it comes to the overall health of an economy.
Will the Non Farm Payrolls Number Rise?
Many economists predict that the NFP will increase and may come in at approximately 180,000 for the month of August. In July, the NFP actually came in below analyst expectations at 162,000. Moreover, the NFP for June came in at 188, 000. Therefore, you can see that the NFP can be difficult to predict and there is always a chance that this number will surprise investors.
With that said, most economic indicators were fairly positive this August in the United States. For instance, unemployment benefits claims – measured weekly - became lower throughout the month and hiring appeared to be positive. Thus, there is a good chance that these encouraging signs may indicate that the NFP employment figures may be up for the month of August as well.
What Will Happen if the NFP Increases?
If the released NFP number is higher than expected, the USD should be higher in value when compared with other currencies such as the JPY, EUR, the GBP and emerging market currencies. Additionally, if the number is strong, there is a good chance that the US government will begin tapering – perhaps by approximately $15 billion in September. As it stands right now, the government currently spends about $85 billion per month on this program.
Time will only tell the result of this all-important economic indicator.