Open trading account 
Forget demand-driven inflation; worry about debt inflation in the Submerging Markets
- Dot plots. We won't bother re-phrasing the Financial Times' (FT's): "In the hours after the Fed's statement was released, its 'dot plot' setting out officials' expectations for interest rates proved to be one of the main drivers of market movements. The chart sets out projections of future movements in the Fed's key rate made by each member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for 2015, 2016 and 2017..."
- Specific downgrades. "The markdown in rate expectations was striking. FOMC members' median interest rate projections for 2015, 2016 and 2017 were reduced by 50 - 75 basis points from December.... Interest rate futures suggest the Fed's overnight borrowing rate will rise 0.5 per cent by the end of the year. That compares with a FOMC estimate of 0.625 per cent and down from a forecast of 1.125 per cent. For the end of 2016, the bond market thinks the rate will rise to 1.25 per cent, versus a FOMC call of 1.875 per cent. By December 2017, the market expects borrowing costs to be about 1.85 per cent, well below the FOMC's estimate of 3.125 per cent."
- FOMC reasons for these downgrades. The key reasons were voiced by Chairwoman Yellen: lower inflation expectations, and "...a downgrade to peoples' assessments of the long-run normal unemployment rate," i.e. people think that unemployment will remain higher and longer than originally thought. Step in rotten education not keeping-up with market needs exposed by globalization.
- View: For some years we have felt that inflation as we know it (i.e. demand-pull inflation, whereby too much money chases too few goods) is a thing of the past: globalization has taken over, thereby making the supply curve along with competition infinite. That, of course, pertains only to open economies where capitalism works...step in America. That welfare museum, Europe, along with that closed market zombie, Japan, will remain on their backs for many years to come: structural changes just won't happen. Thus, we are unsurprised and un-excited by these official interest rate downgrade.
- Currency mismatches fuel debt inflation. The far more worrying thing is that of currency mismatches in Emerging Market (EM) debt: those greedy corporates misled in to issuing "cheap" dollar debt are now finding that the servicing thereof out of ever-weaker local currencies is causing (local currency) debt inflation. And that is a key factor leading to the next market crash: when one EM corporate gets hit big, it will ricochet violently throughout the globalized banking system.
- Thought implication. Don't stare at interest rates when you should be staring at EM exchange rates and the debt inflation of EM corporates.