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- The six-month and three-year global economic expectations worsened in February, a Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed. The six-month economic sentiment index declined 0.02 to 0.62, after declining to 0.64 in January. The three-year economic outlook deteriorated 0.04 to 0.69.
- Respondents became more pessimistic about the six-month and three-year European economic outlooks in February. The six-month economic sentiment index declined 0.01 to 0.52, the lowest level since September 2013. The three-year outlook worsened 0.04 to 0.60.
- The North American economic outlooks also deteriorated. The six-month and three-year indices tumbled to 0.69 and 0.71, down from 0.73 and 0.80, accordingly.
- The Asia-Pacific six-month month and three-year economic expectations were little changed at 0.66 and 0.76, respectively.
Figure 3 presents the term structure of the Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index (Y-axis) mapped against GDP growth forecasts made by poll respondents (X-axis). Overall, DBSI values and GDP growth forecasts match directionally, suggesting the global economy will perform better three years from now.
Respondents revised the European six-month and three-year economic growth forecasts to 0.50% and 1.13% in February, from 0.62% and 1.17% respectively in January.
Poll respondents suggest that the North American economy will expand an annualized 1.83% six months from now and 2.27 three years from now.
The Asia-Pacific economic growth projections are the most prominent. Experts forecast growth of 3.36% and 3.90% six months and three years from now respectively.
Figure 4 presents the business cycle and its phases - expansion (real GDP is increasing), peak (real GDP stops increasing and begins decreasing), contraction or recession (real GDP is decreasing), and trough (real GDP stops decreasing and begins increasing).
Respondents are divided on the European six-month EDS. Ten claim the economy will be in a recession while eleven say the economy will be expanding.
Experts support the view that the North American economy will be expanding both six months and three years from now.
Experts are united about the Asia-Pacific 3-year EDS – twenty three experts forecast expansion and two say the economy will reach its peak.
Video version will be available here.
- The six-month and three-year global economic expectations worsened in February, a Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed. The six-month economic sentiment index declined 0.02 to 0.62, after declining to 0.64 in January. The three-year economic outlook deteriorated 0.04 to 0.69.
- Respondents became more pessimistic about the six-month and three-year European economic outlooks in February. The six-month economic sentiment index declined 0.01 to 0.52, the lowest level since September 2013. The three-year outlook worsened 0.04 to 0.60.
- The North American economic outlooks also deteriorated. The six-month and three-year indices tumbled to 0.69 and 0.71, down from 0.73 and 0.80, accordingly.
- The Asia-Pacific six-month month and three-year economic expectations were little changed at 0.66 and 0.76, respectively.
Figure 3 presents the term structure of the Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index (Y-axis) mapped against GDP growth forecasts made by poll respondents (X-axis). Overall, DBSI values and GDP growth forecasts match directionally, suggesting the global economy will perform better three years from now.
Respondents revised the European six-month and three-year economic growth forecasts to 0.50% and 1.13% in February, from 0.62% and 1.17% respectively in January.
Poll respondents suggest that the North American economy will expand an annualized 1.83% six months from now and 2.27 three years from now.
The Asia-Pacific economic growth projections are the most prominent. Experts forecast growth of 3.36% and 3.90% six months and three years from now respectively.
Figure 4 presents the business cycle and its phases - expansion (real GDP is increasing), peak (real GDP stops increasing and begins decreasing), contraction or recession (real GDP is decreasing), and trough (real GDP stops decreasing and begins increasing).
Respondents are divided on the European six-month EDS. Ten claim the economy will be in a recession while eleven say the economy will be expanding.
Experts support the view that the North American economy will be expanding both six months and three years from now.
Experts are united about the Asia-Pacific 3-year EDS – twenty three experts forecast expansion and two say the economy will reach its peak.
