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As one of the few here i was shorting Bitcoin -0.18% at 11.500/11.600 because i knew that big inverse H&S everyone was looking at would be a big bull trap. I predicted an acceleration down, which clearly happened (look up my previous charts for more info). I closed most of my short positions around the 8500 because there i predicted a short covering rally.
Even though my first target was and still is 7500ish, i closed my short position at 8500 because i expected a move up towards the 9800/10.200. There i said upfront i would build up a big short position because i expected another wave down. My first 20% got in at 9850, but unfortunately there was hesitation at the 9800/9900 and i could see we would probably not go higher anymore and that's why i added another 20% at 9800 (again i called this upfront).
Now Bitcoin -0.18% has been making a big bearish flag as you can see in this picture. For new readers, please look up my older charts for more info. Now for the short term it's possible we could still go towards the 9400 before making another big drop down towards the 8300/8400. IF we get there, i expect it to hang around those levels and that it will probably make another big drop into the 7K levels. When we get to those levels, i expect an even bigger drop towards the 6K and most probably even towards the 4K levels.
The purple line you see, is the neckline of an H&S i showed a week ago. It's not a textbook one, but what most people don't understand about TA, it's not about the patterns, indicators or whatever, TA is a story, the chart gives you a story and you must be able to read it. That's why i was convinced that big inverse H&S would fail!
For now, we are still moving sideways and slowly up, the 9250 is a heavy resistance, but even if we get above it, i expect it to stay below the 9400. If we get above the 9500, i will probably change my strategy a bit. BUT, my medium term outlook does not change!! If we get above the 9300 i will be adding to my short position, between the 9300 and 9400.
If we drop again, our biggest challenge is the 8700/8800 level (more important than the 8300/8400!! I said in an earlier update that we had to take out the 8750 level to drop even further.
Even though my first target was and still is 7500ish, i closed my short position at 8500 because i expected a move up towards the 9800/10.200. There i said upfront i would build up a big short position because i expected another wave down. My first 20% got in at 9850, but unfortunately there was hesitation at the 9800/9900 and i could see we would probably not go higher anymore and that's why i added another 20% at 9800 (again i called this upfront).
Now Bitcoin -0.18% has been making a big bearish flag as you can see in this picture. For new readers, please look up my older charts for more info. Now for the short term it's possible we could still go towards the 9400 before making another big drop down towards the 8300/8400. IF we get there, i expect it to hang around those levels and that it will probably make another big drop into the 7K levels. When we get to those levels, i expect an even bigger drop towards the 6K and most probably even towards the 4K levels.
The purple line you see, is the neckline of an H&S i showed a week ago. It's not a textbook one, but what most people don't understand about TA, it's not about the patterns, indicators or whatever, TA is a story, the chart gives you a story and you must be able to read it. That's why i was convinced that big inverse H&S would fail!
For now, we are still moving sideways and slowly up, the 9250 is a heavy resistance, but even if we get above it, i expect it to stay below the 9400. If we get above the 9500, i will probably change my strategy a bit. BUT, my medium term outlook does not change!! If we get above the 9300 i will be adding to my short position, between the 9300 and 9400.
If we drop again, our biggest challenge is the 8700/8800 level (more important than the 8300/8400!! I said in an earlier update that we had to take out the 8750 level to drop even further.