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AUD/CHF Inside DownChannel

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Nov. as Analysis on AUD/CHF, Target: 0.7289, Date: 1 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliott Wave #AUD/CHF #Range Box #Downchannel
On the daily chart we can see that since the SNB black swan event the market has been moving inside a downward channel (see Figure 1) which can also be a diagonal, and based on the Elliott Wave we should see a 5 wave move inside the channel before the market to decide on it's direction. Currently we're in the stage of developing the 4rd wave but first we'll need to hit the upward limit of this channel at around the big round number 0.7300 where a bounce lower should occur.
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Daytrader21 1 Jan.

Update 6:As expected the 0.7150 level has been providing us a good support in previous week and we indeed started to rally. Right now we closed the week at only 1 pips distance from my forecast target of 0.7289. The ideal scenario is for a retest of previous broken swing high at 0.7250 and than a rebound and a retest of my target at 0.7289.

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tdbatinkov 1 Jan.

good analysis

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foreignexchange 1 Jan.

Great analysis, do you think that a retracement in the Oil forecast could facilitate with this pair some bullish speculation ?

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WallStreetBlog 1 Jan.

Very interesting!!!

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WallStreet6 2 Jan.

Great anaysis!

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AUD/CHF Inside Down Channel

Daytrader21 Posted 15 July as Analysis on AUD/CHF, Target: 0.7055, Date: 1 von September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliott Wave #AUD/CHF #Channel #Range Box
On the daily chart we can see that since the SNB black swan event the market has been moving inside a downward channel (see Figure 1)which can also be a diagonal, and based on the Elliott Wave we should see a 5 wave move inside the channel before the market to decide on it's direction. Currently we're in the stage of developing the 3rd wave but first we'll need to hit the lower limit of this channel at around the big round number and psychological number 0.6800 where a bounc…
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Daytrader21 26 July

Update 2: After we retested the previous minor resistance at 0.7100 the market has been drifting lower as expected and we had another retest of the big round number 0.7000. since we couldn't mange to get below the round number this week we can expect a false breakout below it and than a quick recovery, at least that's the plan.

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Daytrader21 1 Aug.

Update 3: Once again the big round number 0.7000 has provided some good support in the past week. Still nothing much has happened and as per my forecast we should expect further range activity and for next week look again for 0.7000 to provide support and resistance stands at 0.7130

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Daytrader21 9 Aug.

Update 4: The momentum has pushed this pair to the upside and we stop at key resistance level 0.7300 which is also the top of previous range box and which I'm expecting to hold any upside movement. For coming week first level of support is the round number 0.7200

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Daytrader21 15 Aug.

Update 5: AS expected not only that the upside momentum has fade away but we also found support at 0.7200 level as per my previous update. Right now we can't exclude a retest of previous weeks high at 0.7280 before resuming down. First level of support comes in at 0.7130 level.

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Daytrader21 28 Aug.

Update 6: The sell of has been quite violent and once we broke below 0.6900 the momentum has start accelerating. However the momentum has started to pick up and we can see a "v" shape low

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AUD/CHF Inside Down Channel

Daytrader21 Posted 30 May as Analysis on AUD/CHF, Target: 0.7090, Date: 1 von July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliot Wave #AUD/CHF #Channel #Audchf #Snb Black Swan #Range Box
On the daily chart we can see that since the SNB black swan event the market has been moving inside a downward channel (see Figure 1)which can also be a diagonal, and based on the Elliott Wave we should see a 5 wave move inside the channel before the market to decide on it's direction. Currently we're in the stage of developing the 3rd wave but first we'll need to hit the lower limit of this channel at around the big round number and psychological number 0.7000 where a bounc…
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Daytrader21 14 June

Update 1: As expected after we broke below key support level at 0.7250 the market is now using the same level as resistance as this past week we already had a successful retest of this level. Next key support level stands at big figure 0.7000 which should act as the bottom of current range bottom.

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Daytrader21 19 June

Update 2:As expected we found support near the big figure 0.7000 at 0.7050. Right now we are in a range mode with resistance at 0.7300. Next week we should expect further consolidation between this two limits.

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Daytrader21 26 June

Update 3: We're still in the wave 3 stage (see figure 1) and before to continue higher to form the next wave cycle we need another retest of the big figure 0.7000 and complete the wave sequence. In order for this to happen we need the 0.7180 to act as resistance and a break below current week low  at 0.7120

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Daytrader21 29 June

Update 4: Even though we broke below last week low at 0.7120 and also hit our target at 0.7090 right now the market is experiencing a small bounce. We still need that false break out towards the big figure 0.7000 in order for the wave cycle to be completed so watch out for more downside tomorrow

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AUD/CHF - ABC Correction

Daytrader21 Posted 16 Aug. as Analysis on AUD/CHF, Target: 0.8427, Date: 1 von October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliott Wave #Correction #AUD/CHF #Bearish Trend #Range Trading Boxes
There is no surprise as AUD/CHF has been moving in a tight congestion zone as we're still in consolidation. Based on Elliott Wave since mid-2012 we have been moving in a consistent bearish trend(see Figure 1) and now since we established the 0.7700 swing low, we're correcting this 5 wave cycle, We're still in the earlier stage of this correction as after 5 wave down we need an ABC correction to the upside and we only managed to put in place wave A so there is still more behind this movement, but…
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Daytrader21 30 Aug.

Update 2: Current price structure has changed as we broke and close above the psychological round number 0.8500. This only means wave A is overextended and also on the daily basis we're overbought so we still can expect a three wave down to complete wave B of the larger correction

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Daytrader21 6 Sep.

Update 3: It seems Wave B has formed a flat and this is the reason why we haven't seen any sell off towards 0.8300 but instead we broke above wave A swing level at 0.8550 and we are currently developing wave C. My prediction is still correct as we indeed move higher but my timing was wrong

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Daytrader21 13 Sep.

Update 4: It seems the move towards the 0.8700 was a false move as we already consumed all the rally and are back down. This only proves that wave B is also developing a three wave move. For next 0.8300 level should provide a good support level and also a rebound see image attached for more reference.

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Daytrader21 20 Sep.

Update 5: The market has established a defined ranging zone between 0.8490 resistance zone and 0.8360 support level, and in the next week I'll be looking for the market to trade between this 2 levels as currently the market is developing wave b of B so there is a high chance for our target to be hit as currently we're only 36 pips away from my target.

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Daytrader21 27 Sep.

Update 6: Although we retested our 0.8300 support level the fact that we couldn't have a weekly close below that level suggest the bears are weak and we can expect a rebound next week. There is not much resistance underway up until the round number 0.8400 level

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AUD/CHF Bearish Trend to Resume

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Mar. as Analysis on AUD/CHF, Target: 0.7640, Date: 1 von May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #AUD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Box Trading Effect
AUD/CHF has been trading to the downside since beginning of last year and is showing the same pattern as he was done few years ago. In Figure 1 you can see AUD/CHF weekly chart and a symmetrical triangle (not the symmetrical triangle based on Elliot Wave theory) based on this we should see a retest of the 0.7200-0.7000 region in coming weeks.
  • Figure 1. AUD/CHF weekly chart (click on figure to enlarge).
On the daily chart we can have a look at the more recent price action behaviour and we can see…
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Daytrader21 5 Apr.

Update 1: Unfortunately the momentum has changed to the upside after on the daily chart we have formed a H&S pattern which is a reversal pattern. The only way there is a change to resume the bigger down trend is to have a false breakout above the neckline and sell of below it, otherwise we go up

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AUD/CHF Poised For Further Consolidation.

Daytrader21 Posted 10 Nov. as Analysis on AUD/CHF, Target: 0.8510, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #Sentiment #Elliott Wave #AUD/CHF #Range #Zig Zag Pattern #Wave Cycle
AUD/CHF has witnessed a strong downtrend since the beginning of the year which is taking form of an five wave decline as seen in Figure 1. We are in the final stage before the five wave cycle is completed. Currently the wave 4 is developing in a double zig-zag pattern. Which means that AUD/CHF is poised for further consolidation until the downwards momentum start to pick up. In order for AUD/CHF to gain downward traction, we need to see a meaningful shift in AUD sentiment. There’s a strong possi…
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Daytrader21 10 Nov.

I have no idea what's happening but I see that the second paragraph is not aligned as it should be

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Daytrader21 15 Nov.

Update 1: AUDCHF has just ended finishing wave B of the wave 4 correction. From here on I'm expecting the market to run up above wave A and complete the ABC correction. I'm expecting this rally to take shape of an five wave sequence. Currently the 0.8500 round number is holding the market very strong.

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Daytrader21 22 Nov.

Update 2: AUDCHF has been dragged down by it's correlation with AUDUSD. This new down leg can develop in 5 wave sequence of lesser degree. Currently we are in the stage of ending the wave 3 from here on expecting market to settle down and 0.8270 should act as strong support as it's an unfilled gap.

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Daytrader21 29 Nov.

Update 3: The current down leg is overdone it seems that the 0.8200 is holding the market quite strong, expecting next week the momentum to pick up and it will need to do so in a five wave sequence of lesser degree, because this down leg was formed of an abc movement. First resistance level is at 0.8350 which I'm expecting to be broken and hold as support.

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Daytrader21 9 Dec.

Update 4. I think I got it wrong with this one as we broke and close below last swing low 0.8170, this forecast has been invalidated

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