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AUD/NZD Elliott Wave Cycle Completed

Daytrader21 Posted 15 May as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0960, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/NZD #Elliott Wave #Fibonacci Retracement #Cycle #Abc Correction #Zig Zag Pattern
Based on Elliott Wave cycle if we count the move that started from the 2011 high (see Figure 1) all the way down to 2015 parity level we can tell that we have done a five wave move and us such we may consider the downtrend in the final stage. Right now we should be looking for a ABC corrective stage that should at least bring the price near the highs of wave IV at around the 1.1300 level.
Major Levels to watch:
[list=1][/list]…
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Daytrader21 22 May

Update 2: As per my analysis we're now heading towards the 50% fib retracement and as expected we made a temporary top at 1.0900. Next support comes in at 1.0600 which should be a good level to take profits as it can produce a bounce

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Daytrader21 29 May

Update 3: Right now price is reacting off of the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement and it may be the case we're not going to head much more lower and resume the current up trend. However we need current low at 1.0600 to hold price. Resistance comes in at previous swing high 1.0900.

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Daytrader21 14 June

Update 4: As expected AUD/NZD reacted higher from the 38.2 Fib level and we also broke above previous swing high at  1.09000. Right now for next week the 1.1000 big round number should act as support level which later on should be break

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Daytrader21 19 June

Update 5: Unfortunately the upside momentum has pushed up this pair right into the major resistance at 1.13000. We should see from here a push lower at least in 3 waves however I'm not sure if there is enough time to reach our target near 1.1000. Even though there are only 200 pips difference current price structure worries me. If Monday we can push lower and close below 1.1180 we can see more downside

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Daytrader21 26 June

Update 6: The market is already posting a reversal and a break below 1.1150 should see the market accelerating to the downside and eventually to see a retest of the big figure 1.1000

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AUD/NZD Multi-Decade Support Level (part 5)

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Mar. as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0633, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #AUD/NZD #Elliott Wave #Psychological Level
AUD/NZD is approaching a multi-decade support level at 1.0400 which I think will provide some good trading opportunities. In Figure 1 you can see the monthly chart and the strong sell of from the past few months. Since April 2013 after we broke the psychological level of 1.2100 big round number the downward momentum accelerate and we barely see any kind of retracement. But since we hit the 1.0500 level market has started to bottom and move inside some trading boxes, on top of each other. However…
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Daytrader21 21 Mar.

Update 1: Unfortunately we broke to new lows and it may be the case that we're going to have an overextended wave 5. If next week we manage to recover the losses from previous week we're back in cards to hit out target. However we need a close above the 1.0400 level.

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Daytrader21 28 Mar.

Update 2: Since we haven't managed to close above 1.0400 and posted another bearish weekly bar, I suspect this pair is headed much more lower.

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Daytrader21 11 Apr.

Update 3: As expected we have gone lower and even tested the parity level from where we posted a low, which however must be confirmed by another bullish weekly candle

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WallStreetBlog 29 Apr.

Good Job!

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WallStreet6 1 May

really good analysis!

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Weekly Recap

Daytrader21 Updated 7 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Nfp #EUR/JPY #AUD/NZD #Fed #NZD/USD #Qe Programme

Interesting week we had with big developments in the market on the one hand ECB came out with it's QE programme details and on the other hand the US job report has confirmed once again the US labor market is on strong growth path, which may signal that the first rate hike can happen sooner rather than later. See here my previous blog post as why I was expecting NFP figures to beat market expectation: [url=https://www.dukascopy.com/tradercontest/?action=post-read&post…
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RBA Keep Rates on Hold

Daytrader21 Updated 3 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #AUD/NZD #Central Banks #Rba #Market Sentiment #Interest Rates #Economic Reports
This week is abundant in big economic reports and figures and last night we just had the first Central Bank announcing its interest rate decision. Despite the market consensus for a 25bp cut, RBA "unexpectedly" disappointed the market and decided to keep the key interest rates on hold at 2.25%.
RBA interest rate decision is an BINARY event that can have only 2 possible outcome:
  1. Either RBA delivers a rate cut.
  2. Or keep rates on hold
in which case we have a non-event. However taking in consideratio…
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CommunitySupport 3 Mar.

Hi, nice post, just shared it on Twitter

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Daytrader21 3 Mar.

CommunitySupport Hi, Thanks. I've tweeted it as well.

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AUD/NZD Multi-Decade Support Level (part 5)

Daytrader21 Posted 27 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0638, Date: 2nd of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/NZD #Elliott Wave #Retracement #Momentum #Multi Decade Support
AUD/NZD is approaching a multi-decade support level at 1.0400 which I think will provide some good trading opportunities. In Figure 1 you can see the monthly chart and the strong sell of from the past few months. Since April 2013 after we broke the psychological level of 1.2100 big round number the downward momentum accelerate and we barely see any kind of retracement. But since we hit the 1.0500 level market has started to bottom and move inside some trading boxes, on top of each other. However…
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Daytrader21 24 Jan.

Update 2: After making a new low at 1.0350 the momentum has started to pick up and we're now in the process of developing the first wave A, correcting the entire structure that started from 1.3780 sell off. The five wave sequence looks completed. For next week we have support at 1.0500 big round number

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Daytrader21 28 Jan.

Update 3: As expect 1.0500 big round number has provided a good support and right now we're heading for a retest of 1.0755 resistance level. For now the market should be contained inside this two levels. Based on Elliott wave we are forming a flat so we could expect further consolidation

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WallStreetBlog 1 Feb.

Thanks!!!

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Daytrader21 1 Feb.

Update 4: As per my last update we indeed retested previous resistance level and gone beyond that all the way up towards next round number 1.0800, where we had a supply zone. From there we indeed reacted and come back lower towards 1.0600. Right now we're in a much more complex price structure and it may be the case we're doing a double zig-zag pattern, see figure.

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Metal_Mind 1 Feb.

This is a volatile pair so you have all chances to meet your target.Good luck

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AUD/NZD Multi Decade Support Level (part 4)

Daytrader21 Posted 12 Oct. as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.1347, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/NZD #Elliott Wave #Multi Decade Support #Psychological Level #Trading Boxes
AUD/NZD is approaching a multi decade support level at 1.0400 which I think will provide some good trading opportunities. In Figure 1 you can see the weekly chart and the strong sell of from the past few months. Since April 2013 after we broke the psychological level of 1.2100 big round number the downward momentum accelerate and we barely see any kind of retracement. But since we hit the 1.0500 level market has started to bottom and move inside some trading boxes, on top of each other.
…
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Daytrader21 19 Oct.

Update 1: As expected wave D has completed and current swing low at 1.1000 should provide a strong support and the base for the next rally. For next week the resistance stands at 1.1100 which is where we opened last week

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Daytrader21 15 Nov.

Update 2: Since my last update not only that wave D has been completed but the entire sequence ABCDE has been completed which based on Elliott Wave we should now push higher and break above current congestion zone. Current resistance zone remains 1.1300 and we need a break and close above this level in order for the bullish sentiment to be in charge again

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AUD/NZD Multi Decade Support Level

Daytrader21 Posted 3 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #AUD/NZD #Elliott Wave #Round Number #Bullish Flag
I've been posting this analysis in the Technical Analysis Contest as well, you can find it here: AUD/NZD Multi Decade Support Level
AUD/NZD is approaching a multi decade support level at 1.0400 which I think will provide some good trading opportunities. In Figure 1 you can see the weekly chart and the strong sell of from the past few months. Since April 2013 after we broke the psychological level of 1.2100 big round number the downward momentum accelerate and we barely see any kind of ret…
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Shalomavahatikvah 3 Sep.

Very plausible. Nice.

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AUD/NZD Multi Decade Support Level

Daytrader21 Posted 16 Aug. as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.1036, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #AUD/NZD #Elliott Wave #Round Number #Bullish Flag #AUN/NZD
AUD/NZD is approaching a multi decade support level at 1.0400 which I think will provide some good trading opportunities. In Figure 1 you can see the weekly chart and the strong sell of from the past few months. Since April 2013 after we broke the psychological level of 1.2100 big round number the downward momentum accelerate and we barely see any kind of retracement.
Figure 1. AUD/NZD Weekly chart
The five wave cycle has been completed and now we have entered in a tight congestion zone …
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Daytrader21 24 Aug.

Update : although in the last couple of days we have been pressing higher this move looks overbought and we should expect some retracement back inside the range but not further than 1.0950. Next resistance is at around previous week high at 1.1100 where next support is at 1.1035

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Daytrader21 30 Aug.

Update 2: This low from the 1.0620 swing low looks right now has developed only a structure of 3 waves to the upside it's not yet suggesting big impulsive so we can still wait for a retracement to the downside. Next big resistance level stands at 1.1220 and intermediate support at 1.1125 which looks very weak after so many retests, so we can expect next time a break below

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Daytrader21 13 Sep.

Update 3: As expected and as per my previous update the 1.2220 has indeed provided a good resistance although we broke above it the move was not sustained and we dropped back below it and further more. For next week 1.1000 big round number should provide a good support see figure attached for more reference.

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Daytrader21 20 Sep.

Update 4: Although it seems we broke below 1.1000 round number we have another big support level at 1.0950 which can hold the price for further declining. The line in the sand remains 1.0930 which if it fails to hold the price we can see further retracement. However since we're in an impulsive move this should not happen.

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Daytrader21 27 Sep.

update 5: As expected 1.1000 has indeed provided a good support but unfortunately the reaction from this level was overextended. We have stopped at 1.1130 which is a line in a sand at this stage, if the bulls manage to break further up than it's game over if not we can expect a 3 wave decline. First support came in at 1.1070

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AUD/NZD Near Multi Decade Support Level (part 2)

Daytrader21 Posted 15 May as Analysis on AUD/NZD, Target: 1.0670, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/NZD #Elliott Wave #Bearish Trend #Round Number #Bullish Flag
AUD/NZD is approaching a multi decade support level at 1.0400 which I think will provide some good trading opportunities. In Figure 1 you can see the weekly chart and the strong sell of from the past few months. Since April 2013 after we broke the psychological level of 1.2100 big round number the downward momentum accelerate and we barely see any kind of retracement.
Figure 1. AUD/NZD Weekly Chart
The five wave cycle has been completed and now we have entered in a tight congestion zone wh…
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Omela 17 May

it is perfectly!)

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Daytrader21 24 May

Update 1: So far so good it seems that for now we're heading lower and developing wave D as per my prediction. There is not much support underway until previous swing low at 1.0650 so we should expect price following the line of least resistance for now which is down

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Daytrader21 18 June

Update 2: The breakout above the 1.0900 level was a false one as momentum couldn't keep up and we're back into the range. It seems that wave C has not ended there and instead took shape of an 3 wave correction abc. Now wave D is under developing and there is only one thing that stand between reaching our target which is the previous swing low at 1.0750 and we need a daily close below it for further downside movement

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Daytrader21 22 June

Update 3: So far previous swing low 1.0750 has been providing some support but the fact that we're not seeing any kind of reaction is reason enough to consider that we may as well break below that level and complete a 3 wave to the downside and reach our target at around 1.0670

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Daytrader21 28 June

Update 4: We finally broke below last swing low at 1.0750 and from here on we should see momentum start building to the downside and reach our target. Based on Elliott Wave projection we should end the wave D around our target and above previous swing low at 1.0640

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AUD/NZD Trade Setup Update

Daytrader21 Posted 25 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Resistance #AUD/NZD #Setup #Double Bottom #Pattern Idea
More than a week ago I've posted a potential trade setup on AUD/NZD, which was retesting a multi-decade support around 1.0500 big round number and forming double bottom on the weekly chart. You can find that blog post here: AUD/NZD Near MultiDecade Support Level. Trade Pattern Idea
As this pattern idea was based on the weekly chart it was obvious that it will take more time until it will develop itself. Next big resistance level stands at 1.0850 but for now we have another minor resistanc…
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