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How to trade a surprise Fed decision

Can the market really be this complacent heading into a Fed decision?

On September 18, the Fed burned many market watchers with a surprise decision not to taper. Six weeks later many traders plan to sleep through today’s FOMC decision, believing it will be similar to the previous statement. What is the risk of a surprise? In September, the Fed explained the decision not to taper like this:
Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment, the Committee sees the improvement in eco…
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stane2405 avatar

well, I was surprised! my clock/time was 1 hour late, hehe

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Welcome to the FX week! Monday morning Forex prices

Good morning, afternoon, or evening to all and welcome to the kick-off of the FX week.
With only the New Zealand market open at this time, market liquidity is super thin compared to most other times of the trading week, so please take care out there.
Price guide:
  • EUR/USD 1.3561
  • USD/JPY 98.21
  • GBP/USD 1.5979
  • USD/CHF 0.9096
  • USD/CAD 1.0368
  • AUD/USD 0.9420
  • NZD/USD 0.8292
Again, the usual caveats apply – it is relatively illiquid and prices can move sharply on not very much at all.
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NAB business confidence and conditions recap. Animal spirits lift again

  • Business confidence in at +12 from +4 prior
  • Business conditions in at -4 from -7 prior
  • From the NAB:
    • Confidence surges to its highest level in 3½ years.
    • Business conditions, however, still subdued – with employment poor.
    • Signs of better conditions in finance/ business/ property and construction.
    • Forward indicators – including orders, stocks and capacity utilisation – point to future improvement.
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    August 2013: Trading the Chinese Flash Manufacturing PMI

    I know past results don't guarantee future performance, but there is a lesson to be learned in looking at last month’s numbers.
    Chinese Flash Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is based on a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector.
    Respondents are surveyed for their view of the economy and business conditions in China. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.
    Indicator Background. Traders should pay close attention …
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    JBTrader 21 sep

    good info. Thanks!

    Trader_Andrew avatar

    helpful

    aslamhammad avatar

    good analysis :)

    annatimone avatar

    Thank you...:)

    Haynes6EU avatar

    Thank for your analysis :)

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