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Fx daily musings (Nov. 7th 2013)

Boogs_7702 Posted 7 Nov.  in #AUD #EUR #JPY #NZD #Yen #Unemployment #Wheeler #Stevens #Fed
It seems traders were just waiting for the slightet bad news to rip into Aud and the employment data wasn't good. Nzd got pulled with it but has already taken back some of the losses.
Nzd is very strong (so says Graem Wheeler as well not too long ago who is the head of RBNZ and incidentally has said he doesn't see room for intervention as of yet. Hint! Hint! Hint! So he must not be as worried as Stevens who has been quite a bit more communicative and verbal about the Aud's current rate. This lac…
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Bank of Australia's Gov. Stevens

Boogs_7702 Posted 6 Nov.  in #AUD #Rba #Stevens
So here is an article on Oct. 29th explaining how Stevens said that Aud was already unusually high. I am assuming Aud has reached the unusual height again at .9540. I cannot see it going any further. The RBA will put some serious road blocks if it does. Even if the employment data comes out well, Aud is destined to go lower (this all of course if the RBA is being honest and I think why not).
Mr Stevens also had words of caution for foreign exchange investors, saying the recent rise in the Austra…
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Rba rate decision #3

Boogs_7702 Posted 5 Nov.  in #AUD #Exchange Rate #Uncomfortably High
The Rba's rhetoric is nothing more than that. The interpretation of 'uncomfortably high' could simply mean: 'Yes, it hurts but we accept the pain." Unless they actually come up with a way of lowering the uncomfortable Aud exchange rate, Aud is going up to parity with no problem.
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RBA rate decision #2

Boogs_7702 Posted 5 Nov.  in #AUD #Rate Decision #Rba #Cash Rate
I love central bankers' ways of wording things: "The Australian dollar is uncomfortably high". Or, "At some point in time in the future, the Australian dollar will be materially lower than it is today."
Let's see how far down Mr. Stevens can push the Aussie dollar just by using words. Not bad so far but yesterday we were up 75 pips so let's see if we come back down today.
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RBA rate decision

Boogs_7702 Posted 4 Nov.  in #AUD #USD #Rate Decision #Rba #Stevens #Glenn
If Bank Governor Stevens really wants the Aud to be weaker, he is going to have to surprise us all and reduce the cash rate. It's as simple as that. If they don't reduce the cash rate, then all this talk from the RBA and RBNZ for that matter is just talk and they don't really care. Why? Because if they stick to their cash rate, Aud will surely reach .9750 in a hurry again, no problem. And according to Stevens this rate was not even explainable. So tonight is actually really big for the Fx market…
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3 Comments
jezz avatar
jezz 4 Nov.

I think it's enough for this year's cuts

Boogs_7702 avatar
Boogs_7702 4 Nov.

We will see but I say again, if they really do want the exchange rate lower, this is really the only solution right now. The Fed din't taper as expected and this could really make the RBA rethink what they need to do. Let's not forget that more cuts were already foreseen for this year so it wouldn't really be too many.

jezz avatar
jezz 4 Nov.

Ok. Bloomberg predicted aud/usd at 0.80 when it was 1.05. It didn't seem real back then, now it is possible. Rate cuts + gold price have helped a lot, so it is plausable

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