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AUDCAD Coiling within a range

Jignesh Publier 7 avr  dans #Trader's blog #Audcad
AUDCAD touched it's near term high on March 9th, and since then has been in a tight 150 pip range for nearly a month now.
Today was a sharp down day for the pair, and near the end of the London session, it has taken a pause at the previous support as indicated by the chart below.
Because of the momentum down here, I will be looking for a break lower. We may see a bit of a bounce over the next few days, however a break lower exposes the downside, and as momentum has been slowing in the tighter ra…
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AUDCAD Struggles Ahead of Parity

Jignesh Publié 31 oct comme Analyse sur AUD/CAD, Cible: 0.9417, Date: 1 de décembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #AUD/CAD #Audcad #Fibonacci #Elliott Wave #Parity
AUDCAD has been getting some footing over the last few weeks, but the clear trend and heavy momentum appears to the downside.
The Monthly outlook on the pair shows the top in Feb 2012 and a larger cycle to the downside is in play.
Levels
1.0000 - Phsycological Parity level
0.9970 - Weekly Resistance Level
0.9960 - October High & 50% Retracement of last leg down (1.0234-96.88)
0.9830 - Weekly/Monthly minor support and Fib confluence area
0.9417 - Weekly/Monthly Major support and Fib confluence …
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Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 17 nov

AUDCAD has gained back much of it's losses from early in the month as is typical of a the first wave in a new structure.  The levels to watch for further downside momentum are 0.9930-.9940 which marks that 76.4% retracement of the last leg down.  And the area of previous resistance.  The 88.8% retracement comes in at 99.60 - a break of which would negate downside pressure.

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Jignesh 25 nov

As per previous comments the intial leg and retracement supported the view as outlined in the analysis.  However recent consolidation requires a break for further momentum.  Fundamentals out of China with an unexpected rate cut can have some implications for the AUD.  This week the CAD can put some pressure on the pair as the CAD futures are showing potential signs of reversal as well as oil.

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Jignesh 25 nov

Over the last 12 hours, the pair has broken lower out of consolidation.  The blue box on the chart above marks the previous October lows.  The Bollinger bands indicate that the momentum is strong to the downside on the daily chart, and this move looks like it is just beginning to start.

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Jignesh 27 nov

AUDCAD has made a surprising sharp reversal.  The CAD has been slightly weaker in the last 12 hours but not to warrant such a move.  Flows can be coming in through AUDUSD which has the bulls fighting to protect a major 50% fib retracement from 2008 lows to 2011 highs found on  the weekly chart. 

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Jignesh 28 nov

After an ABC structure to the upside, the pair has managed to once again turn bearish.  So far momentum is looking good to the downside, however with well over 200 pips from targets and just over 1 day trading left, the targets are most likely out of scope for this pair.

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