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Silver Poised for Another Major Low

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Nov. as Analysis on XAG/USD, Target: 14.3200, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Bearish #Silver #Psychological Number #XAG/USD
Silver bearish trend that started in 2011 is still well mature and running without any clear sights that it may end any time soon and in this regard we should expect for the trend to remain in place and resume to the downside. This bearish cycle has lasted almost 4 years and based on my experience we need to have a final "flush" at the lows before the bottom may be considered in place in this regard I'm still expecting one final leg to the downside in order to consider completed this cycle.
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Daytrader21 22 Nov.

Update 1: Silver seems poised to make a false breakout in the short-term time frame below 13.90 and even lower but eventually a reaction higher should happen in the coming weeks. We're still trading within a very narrow range between 14.50 resistance and 14.00 support level.

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Daytrader21 29 Nov.

Update 2: We did broke below 13.90 but it was a false breakout and right now we're still back inside the range we need a break and a daily close on each side in order to have more confirmation on which side it want to go. I favor a break of current resistance at 14.40 and a retest of the big psychological number 15.00

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Daytrader21 14 Dec.

Update 3: We already hit our target but we had a strong sell of from there and now we made new lows below 13.90. We're still moving inside a tight consolidation and there is scope for more range activity around the 14.00 big round number since we're still during the holiday period in which we have a strong seasonal pattern.

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Daytrader21 20 Dec.

Update 4: Silver is still moving inside a range between 14.60 resistance level and 13.60 support level. Right now we can see another test of the upper limit of this current range. We have to keep in mind that during this time of the year the market will move less.

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Daytrader21 27 Dec.

Update 5: The momentum from these final two weeks of trading has pushed back up the price to my target and as per my expectation we should see Silver trading between 14.50 resistance levels and 14.20 support level. Current trading environment and taking in consideration the seasonal pattern we should see further ranging conditions

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AUD/USD Range Mode

Daytrader21 Posted 30 May as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7642, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Audusd #AUD/USD #Bearish #Head And Shoulders Pattern #Range #Range Box
Since beginning of the year aussie has been trading in a big range zone with the big round number and psychological figure 0.7500 acting as support and 0.8000 another big round number acting as resistance. It also may be the case we're forming a head and shoulders pattern(see Figure 1) in which case we should expect another rally towards 0.7800 level to form the right shoulder.
Major Levels to watch:
[list][/list]…
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Daytrader21 14 June

Update 1: Aussie has been moving over the past week in a very tight range between 0.7800 resistance level and 0.7600 support level. Next week we should expect another break higher above 0.7800 and find resistance at 0.7850 before going back down.

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Daytrader21 19 June

Update 2: We have been trading inside a very narrow range between 0.7600 support level and 0.7850 resistance level. As long as this level are in place we should see more consolidation. Because of the summer range trading conditions there is a high probability we wont see any major moves

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Daytrader21 26 June

Update 3: Right now we're retesting the 0.7650 level which is also my target. There is still room to retest the 0.7600 round number before to react from this support level. The bias remains that in for the last 2 days of the month the market to trade between 0.7600 and 0.7700 resistance level.

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Daytrader21 29 June

Update 4: Now that we retested the key support level 0.7600 as per my previous update we got bounce and we are trading right now into 0.7700 which should act as resistance. For more downside we need an hourly close below 0.7690

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Silver Broken Trendline

Daytrader21 Posted 14 May as Analysis on XAG/USD, Target: 18.2200, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Trendline #Bearish #Pivot Point #Silver #XAG/USD
Silver bearish trend may have ended once we broke the trendline that connects the 2011 highs and all the intermediate highs of this bearish trend. This bearish cycle has lasted almost 4 years and based on my experience any new major trend starts with a trendline breakout of previous trend. We already broke to the upside of the trendline that connects the highs of this bearish trend at beginning of the year(see Figure 1), and not only that but we had a successful retest of th…
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Daytrader21 16 May

Update 1: It seems that now the 17.20 previous resistance level once broke it's acting as support and the momentum is starting to build up for the next up leg. Until than we should see further accumulation between 17.20-50 level.

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Daytrader21 22 May

Update 2: As expected silver is now retesting the previous broken resistance at which is now new support. The 17.00 round number is acting as expected and the market is already inside a small range between 16.85-17.30 with the round number being a central pivot.

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Daytrader21 29 May

Update 3: Even though we broke back inside the range this may be just a pullback. Right now we're below the key support level 17.00 at the next support level 16.50 which should act as support next week. We'll need a break and a close above 17.00 next week in order for the bullish momentum to come back

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EUR/USD Elliott Wave Count

Daytrader21 Posted 14 May as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0941, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Bearish #Consolidation #EUR/USD #Elliot Waves #Range Box
Since mid of last year EUR/USD has been developing quite a strong bearish trend and based on Elliott Wave cycle (see Figure 1) we still have a lot further to go. Currently we can count 3 waves of major degree and with wave number IV currently being under development. Usually during this stage of the cycle we should expect some consolidation and an ABC correction. Right now we're still in the initial phase of this whole corrective move as we only managed to develop wav…
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Daytrader21 16 May

Update 1: For now the 1.1500 big round number and the top of current box is holding back any upside movement. Support stands at 1.1150 and nothing much has changed we should see further range activity on this pair in coming weeks

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Daytrader21 22 May

Update 2: We broke the current market structure to the downside and the next level that comes into play is the big round number 1.1000. However we can retrace all the way down to 1.0800 which is the mid range of previous trading range box and important pivot point. Next week resistance is at 1.1065 which is the former support zone of the above range

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Daytrader21 29 May

Update 3: As expected the 1.0800 level is now support level and next week I'm expecting to fill in the range formed this week. Resistance for next week is at 1.1150 and support level comes in at 1.0900

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Daytrader21 14 June

Update 1: As long as current high at 1.14500 holds the price down we can still see this pair moving down in the direction of the bigger long time frame trend. Another attempt to retest the current swing low at 1.08900 is not out of the cards.

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Daytrader21 26 June

Update 5: The momentum is still pointing a lower move, right now we're only 70 pips away from my target and current support at 1.1140 has been retest multiple times and has become weaker so a break and close below this level should point to more downside.

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GBP/USD Fractal Map

Daytrader21 Posted 12 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Bearish #Range #Fractal #Market Cycles
Last month I've posted this analysis that you're about to read in the Technical Analysis Contest, you can find the original post here: GBP/USD Fractal Map I thought to share it here as well since it has provided a good road map in trading cable so far.
Cable's price action looks quite familiar and it's a fractal of the 1992-2000 price action (see Figure 1). We can see that the massive sell off in the 90's resemble the sell off that we had in 2007-2008 and going forward both sell offs have seen a…
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EUR/GBP Breakout Mode

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.7230, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Bearish #Breakout #EUR/GBP #Seasonality
EUR/GBP has started shifted to the downside once we broke the major support level of 0.7700(see Figure 1). This is a major support level since it was support level in 2008 and than in 2010, but once we managed to break and close below it the momentum started accelerating and this is a strong sign that for now we're going to move in the direction of line of least resistance. Next major level comes at 0.7100 which was a strong resistance level from 2003 to 2008 when we finally broke to the upside.…
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Daytrader21 14 Mar.

Update 4: The momentum has carried this pair below our support zone at 0.7100 and we retested a much bigger level like the 0.7000 round number. As expected we found some support here and the market has put a temporarry bottom in place. For next week 0.7000 remains a key level and we need this one to hold in order to get a second bounce and move back towards 0.7200

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Daytrader21 21 Mar.

Update 5: As expected and as per my previous update the 0.7000 big round number was key and we mange to put in place a temporary bottom. Now we're back above the 0.7200 level as per my previous update. Next week we should see further consolidation

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Daytrader21 28 Mar.

Update 6: This week we manage to recover back towards our target and we have an overshoot move which found resistance all the way up to around 0.7400 level. This level should provide the next week good resistance in fact I don't even think we're going to retest that level as this corrective move is over. Expect more downside move next week towards 0.7200 level

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Daytrader21 31 Mar.

Update 7: The 0.7350 level has provided a goo resistance level this week and that momentum has shifted to the downside as per my expectations. Right now we have hit our target at 0.7230, however there are few more our to go until the tomorrow's deadline. See figure for the short term plan.

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Daytrader21 1 Apr.

Last update: This is unbelievable, as it has been happening EVERY time during the last months, few hours ahead of the deadline my prediction had only 1-10 pips deviation and it was the same during previous months as well, just that due to month end flow redistribution we have this spikes in price which is distorting the price action. I think Dukascopy should reconsider the deadline and to consider as the deadline last day of the month, NY close price when the session ends, otherwise all the lucky hitter will take the 1st place.

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GBPUSD Fractal Map

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Feb. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5069, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Bearish #Cable #Range #Cycle #Retracement #Fractals
Cable's price action looks quite familiar and it's a fractal of the 1992-2000 price action (see Figure 1). We can see that the massive sell off in the 90's resemble the sell off that we had in 2007-2008 and going forward both sell offs have seen a 66 months retracement. Not only that the price action looks similar but also time wise this fractal looks similar. This fractal will suggest that eventually we'll have to see another major swing low below 1.3490 before the market to enter in the next p…
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Daytrader21 28 Feb.

Update 2: As expected from previous update 1.5550 has provided a great resistance level and we had a strong rejection. However we need a break below 1.5300 in order for the long term bearish trend to resume.

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Daytrader21 7 Mar.

Update 3: This week was a formidable week and it has proved once again that my Fractal map is working as we had an incredible 400 pips sell off from the highs. This move is over exaggerated and oversold at this levels and because we couldn't get a close below 1.5000 big round number it may be the case we will consolidate next week between 1.5200 resistance level and 1.5000 support level

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Daytrader21 14 Mar.

Update 4: As expected we indeed pushed down, however due to the broad base dollar strength across the board the momentum was strong enough to push below the big round number 1.5000. At this stage I'm afraid that we may not see again 1.500 as we have a strong weekly close below this level and also we're closing below an important support level.

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Daytrader21 21 Mar.

Update 5: Due to extreme volatility environment we have been trading in a very big range with 1.5000 level providing a good resistance level for the time being. As per my fractal model this should have been expected as we're in the blue circle area (see Figure 2).

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Daytrader21 28 Mar.

Update 6: Even though we're trading still below 1.5000 big round number our fractal map suggest we should see another move higher. so far the fractal map has been quite precise and in this regard we should follow the map. Next week 1.4800 need to act as support and we should see another false breakout above the big round number 1.5000

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CAD/CHF Downward Channel

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Resistance #Bearish #CAD/CHF #Elliott Wave #Channel #Pivot
I've been posted this analysis in Technical Analysis Contest as well but I thought it has great potential to turn into a nice trade so I'm sharing my analysis here as well: CAD/CHF Downward Channel
Over the last several year CAD/CHF trend has been very consistent and we have been moving in a downward channel without any kind of deep retracement which shows the fact that this bearish trend is very strong and current price action doesn't suggest that there are many big support level that ca…
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CAD/CHF Downward Channel

Daytrader21 Posted 13 Apr. as Analysis on CAD/CHF, Target: 0.7785, Date: 2nd of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #Bearish #CAD/CHF #Elliott Wave #Downward Channel #Pivot
Over the last several year CAD/CHF trend has been very consistent and we have been moving in a downward channel without any kind of deep retracement which shows the fact that this bearish trend is very strong and current price action doesn't suggest that there are many big support level that can stop this bearish trend. I'm still expecting this trend to press lower and to retest the all time swing low level at 0.7100.
In Figure 1 we have the CAD/CHF weekly chart where we can visualize how slo…
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Convallium 13 Apr.

Daytrader21 when do you have  time to write so many blog posts?  it is amazing) !

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Daytrader21 21 Apr.

Update 1: We have been trading in a very narrow market in the last week between 0.7960 support level and 0.8030 resistance level.This is just the first leg that started from the 0.8160 swing high level, based on my prediction we should see a five wave to the downside.

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Daytrader21 7 May

Update 2: The narrow market condition has been very persistent over the last two weeks and we're still stuck in a tight congestion zone: 0.8050-0.7950. I suspect we're going to break to the downside and trade in the direction of the main trend.

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Daytrader21 17 May

Update 3: Unfortunately this pair doesn't follow my forecast and it seems the momentum already started to pick up.

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War bullish or Bearish?

Daytrader21 Posted 5 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Bearish #Bullish #Stock Market #War #Risk Event #Geopolitical Event
Currently the main market driven theme and the high risk event is the geopolitical event happening right now in Ukraine. As we have seen the market has become very sensitive to any risk event The news coming out from Ukraine are escalating very fast the Risk ON-OFF play and usually in time of uncertainties Risk On-Off will play in both sides as things begin to escalate in Ukraine risk aversion will kick in and when things will see some …
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Nicco 5 Mar.

Very, very interesting, as any post of Daytrader! You dom't find any data to interpolate COLD WAR too? The present situation with Russia-Ukraine-The rest of the World I think isn't a true war (I hope so!) but a cold war, or a freesing war...

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Daytrader21 5 Mar.

Thanks, Nicco. Cold war doesn't necessarily mean direct military action. Unfortunately I don't have any data as per your request

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Convallium 6 Mar.

yes, Ukraine brought risks!

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