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How to trade a surprise Fed decision

annatimone Posted 30 Oct.  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #Trading #USD/JPY #AUD/USD #Economy #Us #Fomc #Fed #Bernanke
Can the market really be this complacent heading into a Fed decision?

On September 18, the Fed burned many market watchers with a surprise decision not to taper. Six weeks later many traders plan to sleep through today’s FOMC decision, believing it will be similar to the previous statement. What is the risk of a surprise? In September, the Fed explained the decision not to taper like this:
Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment, the Committee sees the improvement in eco…
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stane2405 30 Oct.

well, I was surprised! my clock/time was 1 hour late, hehe

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Will Doctor Yellen prescribe a dose of inflation for the

annatimone Posted 28 Oct.  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #USD #Trading #Yellen #Inflation #Economy #Us #Fed #Us Dollar #Bernanke
The noises being made about a possible increases to QE are rising. A New YorkTimes story over the weekend adds further evidence that some are calling for more.
They note that the topic of discussion at the Fed may start to focus on inflation and whether more QE should be done to boost inflation up, to give the economy the boost it’s lacking.Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff says that inflation needs to be embraced and that the Fed is being too meek. He wants inflation pushed up to 6% for a few ye…
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sonjatrader 28 Oct.

Peter Schiff comes to the easy conclusion than the new leader at FederalReserve is just as incapable as her predecessors of recognizing a dangerous asset bubble .Worse yet, a a diehard believer in the power of expansive monetary policy,Miss yellen would be much less likely to attack an asset bubble even if she were ever to recognize one before it burst

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mimuspolyglottos 30 Oct.

It is just like bobsleigh sport. FED need steeper and steeper track to go down at the qualifying time forgeting to drive it. They think inertion and gravitation will do the job. And someone will see a crash of their bob close to VIP seats.

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Here comes Yellen!

annatimone Posted 9 Oct.  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #USD #Yellen #Fed #Obama #Us Dollar #Bernanke
Obama thanked Bernanke and introduced Yellen. No one said much of substance but this one caught my attention:
  • Yellen believes the Fed must have vigorous debate, then unite behind response
Other central banks are moving more toward openly expressing their opinions in public and that’s been true of the Fed under Bernanke. This is a hint that Yellen wants all the Fed Presidents to speak with one mouth in public.
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stane2405 9 Oct.

hehe, here we go...

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sonjatrader 10 Oct.

Yellen has a profile more continuity than Summers in relation to ultra soft boots monetary policy that Bernanke has propped up the US economy.UU. in the last few years. However, one of his first tasks will be the articulate a timetable for the withdrawal of these stimuli with which Washington has flooded liquidity markets. So far, only another woman, the Russian Elvira Nabiullina, had played a similar chargement...

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When will we actually believe in a recovery?

annatimone Posted 6 Aug.  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #UK #Trading #Trade #Economy #Bernanke #Carney #Recovery #Abe
There was some very interesting response after the latest upbeat UK figures. The problem with judging a recovery is that you can’t confirm it until many months later when you can look back and say, “yep, that’s a recovery”. If a few figures start slipping early on then the fear creeps back in that the good run was temporary, the problems seem as bad as ever, and we’re all doomed….again, and so on. What are we supposed to do then? Do we fade the good figures if we believe that they will rever…
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When Will the US Dollar Substantially Increase in Value?

annatimone Updated 28 July  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #Currency #Us #Us Dollar #Bernanke #Home Sales #Interests Rates #Manufacturing #Quantitative Easing #Consumers
The US dollar rose in value only temporarily on Thursday when durable goods orders increased by 4.2% - exceeding predictions of 1.1%. That said, on Wednesday the US dollar rose in value compared to other major currencies as positive data regarding US new home sales and the US manufacturing industry sector was released. The Markit’s July flash purchasing managers’ index for the United States increased to its highest reading in four months to 53.2. Additionally, new home sales in the US in June ro…
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