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U.S. labour market strong, stock market tanks

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2018年02月02日  in #Trader's blog #Sp500 #U S Jobs Report #D1 Chart #Blow Off Top #Permabears
U.S. labour market report for January came in strong with payrolls at 200K and wages up 2.9% y/y. A bigger story is sell-off in stocks. This year's price action increasingly looks like a blow-off top. After nine years of bull, is 2018 the year when permabears will finally be able to say "we told you so"?
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Loonie to remain supported above 1.30

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2016年09月28日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CAD, 予想レート: 1.3125, 予想日: 1日11月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Bullish Bias #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Blow Off Top #Net Long Positioning #Dovish Boc
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
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Loonie started the year with a sharp rally and topped out near 76.4% retracement of the 2002 - 2007 downtrend. The reversal was even more impressive…
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al_dcdemo 2016年10月13日

UPDATE 5: Minutes of the FOMC meeting that took place in September showed nothing that we haven't already known. Perhaps the most important takeaway is that the federal funds rate is going up, barring an economic shock. The committee members more or less agree on the need to raise the rate, it is the timing that is still being considered. The U.S. dollar broadly strengthened after the release but there's some profit taking noted today. A part of the reason may well be much weaker than expected  Chinese export data that could be taken as a sign of slowing global growth.

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al_dcdemo 2016年10月14日

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar mostly extended its fourth quarter gains against G7 major currencies this week. The exceptions were the Canadian and the Australian dollars while the New Zealand dollar was pulled down by expectations of further easing by the RBNZ. Worries about global growth after much weaker than expected Chinese export data were diluted today by the first positive PPI figure in five years from the #2 economy which could be a sign of better times ahead. The gradual tightening from the Fed that we're seeing should keep risk assets supported.

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al_dcdemo 2016年10月21日

UPDATE 7: Major currencies finished the week mixed against the U.S. dollar. The euro moved lower after Draghi dispelled speculation of an early tapering of the ECB QE programme. The franc followed suit. The yen ended the week in the middle of its two-week range. The pound closed marginally higher on short covering. The Canadian dollar tested 1.30 on pretty hawkish statement only to reverse sharply on Poloz's revelation that they considered a rate cut. The Australian and New Zealand dollars remain supported by carry traders, though the former sold off after weak labour force data.

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al_dcdemo 2016年10月28日

UPDATE 8: Advance version of the U.S. GDP for the third quarter came in at 2.9% (vs. 2.5% expected and 1.4% previous). The dollar jumped after the release but the gains were quickly reversed. Selling has just been intensified after the news came out that FBI reopened Hillary Clinton investigation. European currencies and the yen are benefiting the most but those are also the currencies that fell the most in the past couple of weeks. Looks more like a position squaring ahead of the next week which will feature BOJ, Fed and BOE meetings.

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al_dcdemo 2016年10月31日

UPDATE 9: Sharp moves on Friday afternoon were followed by a relatively calm opening on Monday. Currencies have been mostly unwinding those moves in the first twelve hours of trading. U.S. dollar rose against most of the major currencies with Canadian and Australian dollars two notable exceptions. Holidays in some countries over the next few days shouldn't have a great deal of influence on already low participation that we've been witnessing lately. If past summer is of any guide, otherwise "slow" months can be quite volatile if there's enough substance to drive price moves.

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Loonie to remain range-bound in September

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2016年08月24日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CAD, 予想レート: 1.3075, 予想日: 3日10月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Wedge #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Blow Off Top #Net Long Positioning
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Loonie started the year with a sharp rally and topped out near 76.4% retracement of the 2002 - 2007 downtrend. The reversal was even more impressiv…
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al_dcdemo 2016年09月19日

UPDATE 6: Week ahead is among the most important ones this year. Even though the market discounts little chance of a Fed hike in September, the meeting will shape expectations for whether we'll get one this year at all. Perhaps even more important will be the decision from the BOJ. This bank has been struggling with deflation and upward pressure on the yen for decades - can they finally put end to that? RBNZ is another central bank that meets this week. No action from them is widely expected, after they cut rates in August.

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al_dcdemo 2016年09月22日

UPDATE 7: FOMC kept the federal funds rate steady at yesterday's meeting. This outcome was widely anticipated though there were still a lot of players expecting an early hike.  It was a "hawkish hold" with the committee sending a strong implicit signal that the second hike is not far away, barring any economic shocks. The dollar fell after the decision and extended its losses in today's European session. It then recouped a big part of the losses in the N.A. session which is consistent with a very real prospect of a rate hike in December.

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al_dcdemo 2016年09月26日

UPDATE 8: Currencies ended the first day of the week mixed but mostly higher against the U.S. dollar. The winner was the yen which approached the strong 100 level once again. A convincing break below it could send few ripples through the FX market, particularly via crosses such as GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Canadian dollar was the loser of the day, following through on the weakness after Friday's inflation and retail sales reports. Market focus is now turning to the U.S. elections. It's also the last week of the quarter so we may well witness some larger position squaring flows.

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al_dcdemo 2016年09月30日

UPDATE 9: The U.S. dollar ended the month higher against the pound and the Canadian dollar but it closed lower against the euro, the franc, the yen and the antipodean dollars. It was a great month for range traders while trend followers are still waiting for a real breakout (higher TFs). They may not have to wait for too long. Contracting ranges will sooner or later give way, in one or the other direction. Uncertainty around U.S. presidental election and potential for a December FOMC rate hike should keep the dollar supported in the Q4.

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al_dcdemo 2016年10月03日

UPDATE 10: Contrary to expectations of many market participants, September turned out to be a mostly sideways month. One reason were certainly central banks, namely the Fed and the BOJ, and lack of action on their part. Oil did have a couple of volatile moves but the pair seems to be less sensitive to it than in earlier part of the year. The market probably already discounted much of the oil price shock. I'm happy with the prediction, particularly the target price while the projected price path was somewhat less accurate.

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USD/CAD to rise towards 1.35 in August

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2016年07月27日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CAD, 予想レート: 1.3275, 予想日: 1日9月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Breakout #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Blow Off Top #Net Long Positioning
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
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Loonie started the year with a sharp rally and topped out near 76.4% retracement of the 2002 - 2007 downtrend. The reversal was even more impressive…
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al_dcdemo 2016年08月15日

UPDATE 5: Another subdued weekly opening as thin summer trading continues. The seven major currency pairs traded in 20-30 pip ranges during the Asian session. Data wise, we have a busy week ahead. U.S. will release inflation report and FOMC meeting minutes. U.K. will report inflation, labour market and retail sales data. Australia and New Zealand will publish labour force reports. We'll get the latest readings on Canadian inflation and retail sales. All in all, this points to a little bit more action than implied by the opening.

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al_dcdemo 2016年08月17日

UPDATE 6: Many participants positioned for the U.S. dollar strength ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, encouraged by yesterday's hawkish comments by the NY Fed president Dudley. The minutes were less hawkish than expected in that only a few members felt that a rate hike was needed. Majority would like to see some more data before taking that decision. The dollar made its customary round-trip, running stops on both extremes, before returning to pre-release levels. The commodity currencies ended the day lower while the rest of the G7 closed near unchanged for the day.

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al_dcdemo 2016年08月22日

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar opened the week with a significant gap in its favour. Weekend comments by the Fed's Stanley Fischer were cited as a contributing factor though it all looks like a simple continuation of the last Friday's reversal. The calendar for the week ahead is relatively light with the main event, a speech by the Fed governor Janet Yellen, coming in at the end of the week. At the moment it seems we'll get a bit of a dollar strength ahead of the event as the market discounts rising (albeit still low) odds of a rate hike by the Fed later this year.

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al_dcdemo 2016年08月30日

UPDATE 8: Last Friday's speech by Fed Chair Yellen seems to have, at least temporarily, reversed the U.S. dollar weakening trend. Major currencies have been impacted to various degrees. BOJ's Kuroda comments over the weekend about room for further monetary policy action made the yen the weakest of the currencies followed by the Canadian and the Australian dollars. Cable seems to be the most resilient and is down just marginally on the week, in part probably due to a lack of new sellers as implied by record net and gross short positions in FX futures.

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al_dcdemo 2016年08月31日

UPDATE 9: Even though the official end of the summer doldrums is after the Labor Day holiday in the U.S., we've seen increased participation this week. Last Friday's move after Fed's Yellen speech sparked some volatility although she offered nothing particularly new. If anything, I think the market was positioned for a less hawkish (maybe even dovish) speech. September rate hike is however back on the table which makes Friday's NFP report a very important one. We'll get ADP Nonfarm Employment Change in a couple of hours  and the reaction to it may be more than usual.

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USD/CAD to remain range-bound in July

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2016年06月25日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CAD, 予想レート: 1.2925, 予想日: 1日8月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Brexit #Blow Off Top #Net Long Positioning
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Loonie started the year with a sharp rally and topped out near 76.4% retracement of the 2002 - 2007 downtrend. The reversal was even more impressiv…
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al_dcdemo 2016年07月11日

UPDATE 5: June's NFP report suggested that the figure for May was just a fluke and that the U.S. jobs market is still strong. Having said that, its performance graduated somewhat over the past year which is in line with diminishing slack in the market. Immediate reaction was to buy the dollar but, after few whipsaws, prices mostly settled near pre-release levels, with a slight risk-on bias. Talking about risk-on, S&P 500 futures posted an all time high overnight, barely two weeks after Brexit.

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al_dcdemo 2016年07月15日

UPDATE 6: Loonie has been contained in a five-cent range between 1.27 and 1.32 since early May, though it has spent most of the time in the inner 1.28 - 1.31 range. The range looks like a rising wedge, which is generally a bearish pattern. The BOC left policy unchanged on Wednesday while the oil seems to be in a correction mode. That seems to keep the pair in balance for now. Some resistance shall be found near 1.31, 1.33 and 1.35 and support at 1.27 and 1.25.

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al_dcdemo 2016年07月26日

UPDATE 7: Loonie broke above two-month consolidation pattern which spans roughly between 1.2675 and 1.3175. The breakout was accompanied by weakness in oil and came few days after 50 DMA crossed above 100 DMA for the first time in a year. 1.33 - 1.3325 (200 DMA, 38.2% retracement of the January - May downswing) will be the first real test and then 1.3450 - 1.35 (September 2015 high, 00's). 1.31 - 1.3150 shall now hold as a support.

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al_dcdemo 2016年07月30日

UPDATE 8: One could argue that the FOMC missed a perfect window to hike the federal funds rate. Brexit disruption proved to be minuscule, labour market bounced, inflation expectations recovered, data improved recently and stocks are trading at or near all time highs. Advance GDP came in much weaker than expected on Friday but will likely be revised towards 2.5% in the following two revisions. It seems that "gradually and cautiously" means one 0.25% hike per year at the most. That means no hike in September with December a much more probable date.

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al_dcdemo 2016年07月31日

UPDATE 9: Currencies staged an impressive reversal against the U.S. dollar last week after a combo of dovish Fed and much weaker than expected Advance GDP print. The yen was the biggest beneficiary as it gained about 400 pips on the week, helped by a lack of stimulus actions from the BOJ. Commodity currencies rallied with the New Zealand dollar a star performer and the Canadian dollar a bit of a laggard. The euro and the franc also rallied strongly with the pound quite behind but still well in the green. Price action points to further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

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USD/CAD to extend gains in June

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2016年05月21日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CAD, 予想レート: 1.3275, 予想日: 1日7月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Bounce #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Blow Off Top #Net Long Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Loonie started the year with a sharp rally and topped out near 76.4% retracement of the 2002 - 2007 downtrend. The reversal was even more impressiv…
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al_dcdemo 2016年06月06日

UPDATE 4: Friday's move after much weaker than expected NFP report might have been a bit overdone and the U.S. dollar started to retrace some of its losses in the Asian session. Aussie and Cable were the two that gave back the most with the latter selling off on renewed Brexit worries. There was little movement in the Euro and the Swissie while the Yen, the Loonie and the Kiwi gave back around 50 pips each. We won't have to wait for too long to see a reaction of European traders to the aforementioned report.

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al_dcdemo 2016年06月10日

UPDATE 5: We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150 pip decline in Cable and a 200 pip fall in GBP/JPY. Commodity currencies have continued yesterday's pullback as did the oil while the gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into in the current environment.

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al_dcdemo 2016年06月13日

UPDATE 6: It may be too early to say but it seems like toppy action in oil may lead to a period of consolidation or a deeper correction. Inability of the Canadian dollar to rally on much better than expected labour market report is also telling. The pair found support at the 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2016 rally last week and posted a reversal pattern on Friday. The immediate resistance is 1.28 (2015 support/resistance line) before 1.2870 (50 DMA) and 1.30.

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al_dcdemo 2016年06月24日

UPDATE 7: In Thursday's UK EU referendum, 52% of Britons supported Leave and 48% Remain. Though not entirely unexpected, the result was surprising, particularly given that the last couple of opinion polls showed Remain ahead. The outcome sent jitters through capital markets and indeed currencies. Of 28 G7 currency pairs, GBP/JPY was the one with the biggest daily range - a whopping 2700 pips. Repercussions from this once-in-a-decade kind of event will likely be felt for weeks, if not months.

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al_dcdemo 2016年06月29日

UPDATE 8: After gaps lower of varying degrees on Monday and initial signs of a follow-through, it looked like we would see continuation moves this week. Instead, currency pairs started to retrace Friday's losses while only Cable made a new low before heading higher on improved risk sentiment. It is not clear when and how will Britain exit the E.U. but the fact that they're in no hurry to invoke Article 50 seems to provide some calm to the markets at the moment despite prolonged uncertainty.

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Will USD/CAD bottom out in May?

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2016年04月23日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CAD, 予想レート: 1.2575, 予想日: 1日6月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Blow Off Top #Net Long Positioning #Relentless Pullback
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Loonie started the year with a sharp rally, topping out near 76.4% retracement of the 2002 - 2007 downtrend before reversing. The correction has bee…
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al_dcdemo 2016年05月09日

UPDATE 4: After the U.S. dollar reversal last week, Canadian dollar has been one of the currencies that have been hit the hardest. Raging wildfires in Alberta have definitely contributed to the rise in USD/CAD as oil prices remain supported. The pair added more than five cents since Tuesday and is currently trading just below a confluence of the April 18th high, 50 DMA and 1.30 big figure level. 1.30 - 1.3065 (2008 - 2009 highs) seems like a decent sell zone but with current momentum the pair may just slice through.

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al_dcdemo 2016年05月13日

UPDATE 5: Last few days felt a bit like a summer in the markets. There was no real trend while volatility declined, particularly in European currencies - Euro's weekly range being currently worth only about 90 pips. Loonie (~250 pips) and Yen (~230 pips) have fared somewhat better. I think UK EU referendum is playing a big part here. The uncertainty is causing many players to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in the current mode for a couple of weeks before things really start to kick off in the run-up to the big event.

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al_dcdemo 2016年05月19日

UPDATE 6: Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a big surprise. Rarely do this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September. The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. USD/CAD, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance at 1.30. GBP/USD on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Remain option firmly ahead in polls.

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al_dcdemo 2016年05月23日

UPDATE 7: Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were however decent for a Monday and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that. Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23rd).

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al_dcdemo 2016年05月26日

UPDATE 9: BOC held rates steady yesterday and didn't deliver a dovish statement as many in the market expected. Canadian dollar adjusted higher after the event while firming oil prices haven't been doing it any harm. Brent broke $50 overnight with WTI trading close to the big figure too. Loonie is back below 1.30 - 1.3065 area, now targeting 50 DMA. That looks like a good spot for a pullback support but, if oil extends above $50, a deeper pullback in the pair seems more likely. The aforementioned area shall remain a near-term sell zone for now.

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USD/CAD to trade higher in April

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2016年03月27日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CAD, 予想レート: 1.3575, 予想日: 1日5月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Blow Off Top #Relentless Pullback
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Loonie started the year with a sharp rally. It topped out near 76.4% retracement of the 2002 - 2007 downtrend (~1.4690) before reversing. The corre…
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al_dcdemo 2016年04月11日

UPDATE 5: Major currencies opened the week mostly with small gaps against the U.S. dollar and then went pretty much sideways from there. Chinese CPI and PPI reports came in largely as expected. Yen did make a new marginal high (USD/JPY low) but then consolidated as well. U.S. Q1 earnings season starts after today's market close, so a bit of position squaring in risk sensitive pairs would not be that unexpected.

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al_dcdemo 2016年04月13日

UPDATE 6: While commodity currencies already had a great few days, low-yielders such as euro, yen and franc remained supported up until today. Positive risk sentiment finally impacted them as well while the dollar strengthened across the board. U.S. (Core) Retail Sales and (Core) PPI reports and especially BOC meeting later in the day are definitely factors behind some position adjustments, particularly in commodity pairs which have become a bit extended, technically.

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al_dcdemo 2016年04月14日

UPDATE 7: After relatively upbeat rate statement yesterday, Loonie hit the lowest level since last July. BOC governor Poloz was less upbeat at the press conference and the pair turned higher, helped by consolidating oil prices. The pair cleared stops below strong 1.28 - 1.285 band (Q1 2015 highs, July and October 2015 lows) and stalled about 70 pips ahead of 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2016 uptrend. 1.30 - 1.3065 zone (2008 and 2009 highs) shall now provide some resistance.

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al_dcdemo 2016年04月24日

UPDATE 8: First quarter turmoil seems like a distant memory now as commodities and equity indices turned up. Central banks (ECB, BOJ, PBOC, RBNZ, ...) that acted or didn't act (Fed) earlier in the year are claiming some of the credit for the positive developments but the main driver seems to be the recovering oil. U.S. dollar indeed strengthened across the board last week but another theme was yen weakness and appreciation of risk sensitive currency pairs.

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al_dcdemo 2016年04月25日

UPDATE 9: With the exceptions of the British pound and the Canadian dollar, which were the strongest currencies last week, the U.S. dollar opened with a small gap higher against major currencies. Interesting and potentially lively week ahead will feature Fed, BOJ and RBNZ meetings, U.S., E.U., U.K. and Canadian GDP reports, Australian quarterly inflation report and several central bank speakers.

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USD/CAD may retest 1.40 in March

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2016年02月28日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CAD, 予想レート: 1.3725, 予想日: 1日4月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Blow Off Top #February Range
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
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Loonie started the year with a sharp rally. It rose through 1.40 (2004 and 2015 high), 1.4250 and 1.45 (76.4% retracement of the 2002 - 2007 downtr…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2016年03月07日

UPDATE 4: Major currencies opened the week with dollar the gapping to the upside. This is not surprising given substantial dollar losses on Friday post-NFP. Loonie gapped about 20 pips to the upside and continued to drift higher throughout the Asian session. There's a strong cluster of support between 1.3250 and 1.33 while 1.3450 - 1.35 shall now act as a decent resistance.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2016年03月19日

UPDATE 5: Surprisingly dovish FOMC spurred a U.S. dollar sell-off in which commodity currencies benefited the most. USD/CAD so far lost about three and a half cents. It also had a positive effect on U.S. stocks with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices turning positive on the year. Given that the next candidate meeting for raising rates is not before June and even raising then is under question, the current U.S. dollar pullback is set to continue.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2016年03月21日

UPDATE 6: After relentless, so far 1800 pip, pullback, driven by stabilization in oil, lack of policy action by the BOC and relative resilience of the Canadian economy, Loonie found some support near the big figure level at 1.30. The level coincides with 2008/2009 highs in 1.3000 - 1.3065 zone and 61.8% retracement of the May 2015 to January 2016 upswing. The next major level is 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2016 uptrend near 1.27. March 11th low (~1.3165) shall provide some resistance.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2016年03月25日

UPDATE 7: Good Friday and Easter Monday holidays will make this weekend four days long instead of usual two days. Even though U.S. resumes trading on Monday, full participation is not expected until Tuesday. We've already been witnessing low liquidity and volatility. Both are to remain on low levels during this period, though there's always a possibility of a sharp move in such conditions.

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al_dcdemo 2016年03月31日

UPDATE 8: Tomorrow is a NFP day and, following recent dovish turn by the Fed, I would expect more U.S. dollar losses on a weaker than expected report than gains on a better than expected report. If I'd have to guess, I'd say we would get overall slightly better than expected report. Price action would depend on the pair, but would probably involve taking out stops on both sides with the dollar ending up near unchanged on the day.

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