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Prepearing the Week Ahead

Daytrader21 Uaktualniono 25 Paź  w #Trader's blog #Boj #Monetary Policy #Interest Rates #Fed
Definitely the week ahead is shaping out to be pivotal in determining whether or not the movements started last week are genuine and we're going to see some follow through or the market will complete reverse and go the other way. The Economic calendar looks quite heavy this week as we have Fed rate decision which as per market expectation should be a predictable event in the sense that Fed will hold monetary policy.
On the other side of the monetary policy spectrum we have BOJ which many are spe…
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Joe_Vulcan avatar
Joe_Vulcan 25 Paź

Nice.  This has me pumped up.

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Nikkei 225 - USD/JPY Correlation

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 17 Mar  w #Trader's blog #USD/JPY #Boj #Qe #Monetary Policy #Fed #Bubble #Nikkei 225 #Balance Sheet
Last year around the summer time I've made this prediction about Nikkei 225, read more here: Nikkei 225 Will Revive Yen Bearish Trend?
Since than there have been many new developments in the market and the macro landscape has been reinforced itself as soon as BOJ has gone full tilt expanding their current QE programme, and BOJ has lunched QQE II on October last year. BOJ decided to increase its amount of monetary base from 60-70T yen to 80T yen, expanding their balance sheet even further.…
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USD/JPY Elliott Wave Cycle Completed

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 3 Sty  w #Trader's blog #USD/JPY #Boj #Fed #Elliot Wave #Range #Abc Correction
I've posted this view on USD/JPY in the Technical Analysis Contest and I thought to share it here as well, you can find the original post here: USD/JPY Elliott Wave Cycle Completed
Based on the Elliott Wave cycle the bullish trend that started in 2012 in USD/JPY as completed a 5 wave move(see Figure 1) and in this regard now we can expect some type of correction. This bullish move was quite straight forward without much correction only a shallow correction in wave IV. Now that we have com…
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Yen Pairs On The Move

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 9 Kwi  w #Trader's blog #Yen #Boj #Carry Trade #S P500 #Us Dollar #Risk Aversion #Stimulus Program
The big risk event from recent session was BOJ rate decision, but it only was of big importance because market participants assumed that the BOJ would follow up with an upgrade of his stimulus program. The BOJ did nothing however the yen pairs were sold of in a strong fashion way but this only happened during the NY session.
Figure 1. USD/JPY Daily Chart

What we saw with the yen movements was not a general risk aversion theme because the S&P500 and also the US dollar were not confirming this mo…
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independeceday32 avatar
independeceday32 9 Kwi

No probem daytrader21, I think this armike speaking respectfully defending his opinion. Clearly not, stop hunting define the whole movement in the yen yesterday, and I think the same way that daytrader21 about this topic.Armike I think it is clear that in forex, even OTC, there are manipulations, a week ago came the news that the FBI was investigating big banks operating in forex, because their employees by messages through the Bloomberg or Reuters terminals, agreed positions market. This makes clear that there are manipulations in forex, but I think due to lower volume than other market.

independeceday32 avatar
independeceday32 9 Kwi

sorry, I wrote the name wrong .... Airmike.!!

Airmike avatar
Airmike 9 Kwi

Sorry guys,I think is onlz misunderstanding. My opinion is a bit damaged by professional deformation :). It is very hard to explain, when we are talking about different stuff. for example Market - Forex. Manipulation - SLH. I am talking about Forex and SLH and probability to see something like this by small investor eyes on daily basis. My opinion is that is no chance to see or prove any SLH technique just by the screening a chart. that's impossible. 99% of breakout spike are definitely not SLH, and movements about 100 points are not at all. Thats my opinion :)

independeceday32 avatar
independeceday32 9 Kwi

I agree with you Airmike, it is impossible for a movement of 100 points, is to SLH, and previously I did not mean that the whole movement yesterday the USD / JPY was due to SLH, it is impossible, I just used a colloquial talking.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 9 Kwi

Mike, I say the same let's just not get lost into the semantics and lose sight of the things that really matter.

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Preparing the week ahead

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 6 Kwi  w #Trader's blog #Ecb #Nfp #AUD/USD #Boj #EUR/USD #Unemployment Rate #Easing #Risk Events #Deflationary

Last week was definitely hot in terms on high risk events as on one hand we had the ECB monetary policy and on the other hand we had NFP figures which saw 3 straight monthly increases in the labor market, and S&P500 hitting a new all time high. The fact that ECB has not acted on the deflationary pressures is becoming an increasingly bigger threat to EU zone this puts a higher risk on the upcoming inflation figures from different countries withing EU zone that are abo…
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Convallium avatar
Convallium 6 Kwi

interesting post as always! )

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Prepering the week ahead

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 16 Luty  w #Trader's blog #Boe #Central Banks #Rba #Boj #Cpi #Inflation #Unemployment Rate #Forward Guidance

In comparison to last week economics events we should expect for the week ahead some pretty decent action. Although there are no major central bank meeting this week except BOJ Monetary Policy and Interest rates decision we have other data like the CPI which are measuring the inflation and have a threshold target from central bank forward guidance.

Here are the main risk events for this week that you should pay attention:
[list][/list]…
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4 Komentarze
Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 16 Luty

good job bro. Your blog sure helps me in fundamental contest to be always up to date.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 16 Luty

Thanks buddy, at least I hope you'll win the Fundamental Contest, too bad I don't have to much time left otherwise I'll be all over it:)

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 16 Luty

Thanks buddy. I know. You were the fundamental superstar. You won a dozen prizees.

HOANG_MAI_NHI avatar
HOANG_MAI_NHI 17 Luty

Thanks pro

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CHFJPY Clash of The Titans: BOJ and SNB

Daytrader21 Przesłano 18 Paź jako Analiza CHF/JPY, Cel: 106.6000, Data: 2 z Grudzień, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #Boj #Elliott Wave #Snb #CHF/JPY #Box #Ranging
Since beginning of the year after we had BOJ step into the market and announced his stimulus program CHFJPY has been going nowhere. In fact the only notable thing is that we have made a new high above the high we made in the 2011 summer. That high was put in place right after we had the SNB intervention.
This pair is stuck between the battle of the biggest central bank in the world SNB and BOJ, which has kept the pair in a tight ranging zone in the last months. The fact that we couldn't stay …
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Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 25 Paź

Update 2: The sell of continued in the last few days confirming that a top is forming right here we still have to go more to the downside before wave 1 of the current down wave to complete. Next support is at 107.80 where I'm expecting to make a minor swing low and complete the wave 1 and start another attempt towards the highs and form wave number 2 before collapsing.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2 Lis

Update 3: We finally manage to get a decent sell of from the highs and as I stated in my previous update the market indeed fin support at around 107.80 and the fact that we manage to close the daily candle above the round number 108.00 suggest that it will take more time before to continue to the downside. This is just the first leg based on Elliott wave analysis so in this stage price developing should be more quiet .

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 8 Lis

Update4: The momentum in the past days continued to the downside gaining more ground and near our 106.6 target. The first wave is not yet completed this suggest further consolidation ahead.Expecting 107.00 support line to hold for some days now before any move to the downside. We may even deep below our target to close the gap at 105.60 from where I'm expecting a strong reaction.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 15 Lis

update 5: After hitting our target last week is seems the market has took another run up to retest the highs. The current rally has took shape of a five wave rally sequence. which suggest the 109.80 top should hold and we should see a strong correction from beginning if next week that should take us back to our 106.60 target

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 22 Lis

Update 6:It seems CHFJPy has broken higher as USDJPY was moving higher and this dragged everything to move to the upside

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