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The strong magnet

megajorko Posted 4 Nov. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 120.0000, Date: 1 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Dollar #Yen #USD/JPY #Rate Hike #Boj Stimulus
Hello traders,
as we can see the USD/JPY pair is in a tight range since the middle of the year and there is no pattern formed.
The Daily chart:
There were several false Bullish starts and 1 huge drop to nearly 118. After all everything ended where it started.
The picture on the weekly chart shows that after reaching the level 120 there was only noise and nothing more:
So in conclusion I can say only other possibilities:
1) Fed decides to increase the i-rate - USD/JPY probably will go up to…
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Consolidation with bearish tilt

marius24 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on CAD/JPY, Target: 102.4500, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD/JPY #Boj Stimulus #Overbought Status #Oil Price
Currency Pair:Cad/Jpy
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 103.85
Trend: very strong uptrend
Possible trading range:101-105
Signals: The upward movement has begun to lose momentum mainly on the back of a falling canadian dollar. Due to the overbought status in Cad/Jpy some pullbacks are in the sight
Forecast: The BOJ stimulus is already priced in and a further fall in the oil's price will definitely hurt the canadian dollar. Based on the above analysis i ex…
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marius24 10 Dec.

update: as many other japanese pairs the Cad/Jpy headed in the first phase to higher grounds at around 106.49 ,but a recent sell off in usd/jpy has dragged down once again the price in 103 area. It's seems that a head and shoulders pattern is right now underway on the daily chart. The current price is 104.09.

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marius24 19 Dec.

update:i was right saying that a head and shoulders pattern was underway. THerefore the bears managed to break down that neckline situated at around 103.47 and sent the price towards 99 level. Since this episod the price recovered much of the lost ground and hovers at 102.95. From here i expect further consolidation between 104 and 101.

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marius24 27 Dec.

update: SO far the bulls haven't managed to exceed a strong resistance situated at 103.47 and this fact could be a sign of weakness of the recovery attempt. From this point i expect some selling pressure until the price hit one more time a support situated much lower at 101.25. Anyway this pair has entered in a consolidation phase. CUrrent price:103.36

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Consolidation with bearish tilt in the sight

marius24 Posted 29 Nov. as Analysis on CHF/JPY, Target: 121.3700, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Ecb #Consolidation #CHF/JPY #Boj Stimulus #Rising Wedge
Currency Pair:Chf/Jpy
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 122.71
Trend: very strong uptrend
Possible trading range:120-125
Signals: THe pair comes after a very long uptrend backed by the aggressive monetary policy undertaken by the BOJ. Right now the price is in the very top of a rising wedge ( weekly chart) and given this fact a slowdown in the rally is expected in the following period.
Fundamentals: THe BOJ stimulus will keep this pair at elevated levels…
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marius24 10 Dec.

update:chf/jpy has continued to rally  in the last days and hit 124.50, but due to a recent selloff in usd/jpy the price has been dragged down once again in 122 area. I expect from here a consolidation with a bearish tilt in the following period.

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marius24 18 Dec.

update:the price has suffered a downside correction once the japanese yen began to strengthen on the back of a rise in risk aversion. Chf/Jpy has hit 120.59, but right now the rate is hovering at around 121.42. Let's see and wait if the latest move from SNB would curb the demand for the franc.

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marius24 26 Dec.

update: chf/jpy has barely moved in the last days heading higher from 120 towards 121.87. On the 4 hour chart a head and shoulders pattern with its neckline at 121.06 has some chances to appear if the price goes lower once again in the 120 area.

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Low volatility in the coming month

marius24 Posted 27 Nov. as Analysis on NZD/JPY, Target: 92.2700, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #NZD/JPY #Boj Stimulus #Overbought Status
Currency Pair:Nzd/Jpy
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 92.72
Trend: very strong uptrend
Possible trading range: 90.50-94
Signals: Historically speaking and looking at Nzd/Jpy chart i noticed that after a boom period of the price the market has entered in a 200-300 pips consolidation which in average lasted 1-2 months. So given the overbought status after this massive spike it's highly probable to see no major moves in the coming month
Fundamentals: …
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3 Kommentar
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marius24 9 Dec.

update:it;s quite hard to find a direction when the nzd is appreciating and the yen is appreciatiing. Nzd/jpy has touched this week 93.96 level and then the tumble has come quickly due to the sell off in usd/jpy. Today the price hit 91.35 and from this point further consolidation is ahead. Current price 91.86

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marius24 18 Dec.

update:due to a bearish head and shoulders pattern broken to the downside at around 91.78 the price headed lower towards 89.92. From this point the bulls took the control once again and sent the rate higher into 91 area. I expect further upside moves in this pair in the following period

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marius24 26 Dec.

update: i was right with my bullish outlook predicted on 18 Dec because the price continued to move higher towards 93.25. From this point the bulls need a strong support in order to push the rate even higher. RIght now there is no chance to see that scenario and a retracement is more likely to be see in the coming days

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Consolidation in the following period

marius24 Posted 27 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 146.2300, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Ecb #EUR/JPY #Consolidation #Boj Stimulus #Overbought Status
Currency Pair:Eur/Jpy
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 146.55
Trend: very strong uptrend
Possible trading range: 143-150
Signals: As many other japanese pairs the Eur/Jpy has jumped sharply at higher levels gaining almost 1000 pips from 138 to 149. Having this in mind i think that a pause in the rally is necessary for future rallies. THe overbought status will certainly attract more bears in the market.
Fundamentals: The unknown variable remains the ECB…
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marius24 9 Dec.

update:eur/jpy rallied until 149.77 and from this point the tumble has begun:)).  On the 1 hour chart a head and shoulders pattern with its neckline at around 148.22 has been broken to the downside and after that an ascending channel has been breached at 147.48 dragding down the price as low as 146.78. It's worth mentioning that the latest fall comes due to the sell off in usdjpy and a little risk averision in the equity markets. Current price 147.78

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marius24 18 Dec.

update:the price continued to fall towards 144.96 where until now it proved to be a bottom. The current price is hovering at 146.10 and only further falls in eur/usd will probably cause the same reaction in Eur/Jpy. I remain in favour of seeing more sideways moves in the coming days.

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marius24 26 Dec.

update: eur/jpy has been under two opposite forces coming both in the same time ( bullish usd/jpy and bearish eur/usd). Technically speaking a head and shoulders pattern with its neckline at 145.54 is right now underway ( 4 hour chart). The current price is at around 146.63 not far way from my target

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A consolidation with a bearish tilt in the sight

marius24 Posted 27 Nov. as Analysis on GBP/JPY, Target: 183.4600, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/JPY #Consolidation #Boj Stimulus #Overbought
Currency Pair:Gbp/Jpy
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 185.25
Trend: very strong uptrend
Possible trading range: 181-187
Signals: Right now the pair seems to be entered into a overbought status and some corrections are expected in the following period
Fundamentals: In my opinion the latest BOJ's stimulus have been priced in and further upward moves in this pair look quite limited at this point as long as Carney appeared very concerned regarding risks to…
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marius24 9 Dec.

update:the price continued to rally and stopped so far at 189.71. Due to the overbought status first correction has appeared and managed to drag the rate at lower levels at around 187.56. From this point on the hourly chart a head and shoulders pattern with its neckline at 187.56 can bring additional selling pressure on this pair. Current price 187.63

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marius24 18 Dec.

update:i was quite right regarding that head and shoulders pattern which brought more bears in the market and managed in this way to send the price as low as 181.54.The current price is hovering at 185.35 and from this point further consolidation is more likely to take place in the following period

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marius24 26 Dec.

update: gbp/jpy has followed the same path that usd/jpy went and hit once again 187.52. From this point the bulls seem reluctant to keep the situation in their hands and sooner rather than later the bears will enter in the market with bigger force

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Only one way: up

marius24 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on AUD/JPY, Target: 100.2600, Date: 1 von December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/JPY #Ascending Channel #Boj Stimulus
Currency Pair:Aud/Jpy
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 98.78
Trend: very strong uptrend
Possible trading range:96-102
Signals: the BOJ stimulus will act like a support for further upside moves in this pair
Forecast: it's highly likely to see more rises in this pair until at least 102
My target: 100.26
Weekly chart (below)
Daily chart (below)
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marius24 6 Nov.

update:this pair was pushed even higher since i put this prediction touching 99.69, but the recent sell off which occurred in the aussie/dollar pair has acted like a hinder in its way to reach that round level of 100. From this point (98.92) it's likely to see a pause in the rally and therefore some pullbacks are ahead.

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marius24 19 Nov.

update: i was quite wrong saying last time that the pair would prepare for a consolidation. Instead the price continued to rally towards higher levels as high as 102.38. RIght now we have some signal of overbought and therefore some downside corrections are more likley.

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marius24 26 Nov.

update:Aud/Jpy made one more leg higher until 102.83 and then fell as low as 100.39 mainly driven by a falling aussie across the board. My target lies at 100.26, very close from the current price. From here any furture direction depends on what Usd/Jpy will behave in the following period

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marius24 1 Dec.

update:the price hovered between around 102 last weak and today it seems that it took a blow from aud/usd which opened with a gap lower. Unless nothing important happen till 12:00 GMT i expect to see aud/jpy fluctuating between 100.15 and 100.50

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Bullish on GBP/JPY

marius24 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on GBP/JPY, Target: 180.2300, Date: 1 von December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/JPY #Boj Stimulus #V Shape Pattern
Currency Pair:GbpJpy
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 179.27
Trend: strong uptrend
Possible trading range: 176-182
Signals: when a V shape pattern appears then we must be ready for further upside moves in the following month
Fundamentals: BOJ has just added extra stimulus to achieve that inflation target of 2%
Forecast: i expect to see this pair staying above 180 level
My target: 180.23
Weekly chart (below)
Daily chart (below)
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marius24 9 Nov.

update: since i put this prediction here the pound against yen has rallied another 465 pips from 179.64 towards 184.29. Meanwhile the bears have come in the market and managed to drag down this pair at lower levels as low as 181.14. Any rally above 184 level looks quite impossible at this stage and a consolidation between 179 and 184 has more chances to be seen

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marius24 19 Nov.

update:this pair has been traded in a consolidation area between 181.05 and 184.65 mainly on the back of a falling pound and in the same time of a falling japanese yen. THe pound is not expected to rally any time soon, but the yen is expected to slow down a litle bit the pace of depreciation

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marius24 26 Nov.

update: the price is hovering at 185 level and at this moment seems quite impossible to fall and hit my target situated at 180.23. Only a bigger correction in Usd/Jpy would trigger some significant drop in Gbp/Jpy

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Further upside moves for EUR/JPY

marius24 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 142.5500, Date: 1 von December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/JPY #Inverted Head And Shoulders #Boj Stimulus
Currency Pair:Eur/Jpy
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 140.55
Trend: uptrend
Possible trading range: 136-144
Signals: an inverted head and shoulders is right now under way with its left shoulder missing. So if price breaks above 141.20 then it's time to see further gains in this pair towards 144.
Fundamentals: BOJ has just added extra stimulus to achieve that inflation target of 2%
Forecast: in this case we have only one direction to follow and that is …
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marius24 9 Nov.

update: like many japanese currency pairs eur/jpy has rallied another 353 pips since i post this prediction here. SO far it seems that 144.20 acted like a top because the bears managed to stop the price dragging it down at around 142.15. Only an upside correction in the eur/usd would probably encourage more bulls to buy this pair in the next period.

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marius24 19 Nov.

update: eur/jpy has rallied further due to a rising euro and also a rising usd/jpy in the last period. I am expecting ot see a correction in Usd/Jpy, but in the same time euro is poised to deliver a higher correction very soon on the back of a better data coming out of Europe. Right now the price is hovering at around 147.54

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marius24 26 Nov.

update: EUr/Jpy hit another level (149.14) not seen since 2008 and right now is hovering much lower at around 146.64. A bearish pattern called double top has some chance to be completed should the price heads towards 145.57. In my view there are small chances to hit my target put at 142.50 in just a few days taking into account that euro is poised to rally.

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Further upward moves are in the sight

marius24 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 111.5300, Date: 1 von December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Boj Stimulus #115 Level In USD/JPY
Currency Pair:Usd/Jpy
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 111.59
Trend: very strong uptrend
Possible trading range: 108-115
Signals: right now the fundamentals drive the chart and therefore the technical indicators do not matter at this moment
Fundamentals: BOJ decided today to add more stimulus in order not to miss the inflation target of 2%
Forecast: having the above analysis on the table it's very likely to see further bullish moves
My target: 11…
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marius24 10 Nov.

update:i was quite precisely when i said that the price would rally until 115, because the usd/jpy has stopped at 115.58. Meanwhile the price has experienced a pullback toward 113.82. RIght now the rate is hovering at 114.60 and further bearish moves are more likely to occur in the next period

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marius24 20 Nov.

update:the price has jumped too much in order to let here a reasonable comment :))

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marius24 26 Nov.

update:still hovering at 117.50.no chance for my target

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