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Australian Dollar Faces Perfect Storm of Key Event Risk Ahead

Ucef 投稿日: 2015年11月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:AUD/USD, 予想レート: 0.7444, 予想日: 1日1月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Resistance #AUD/USD #Upward Channel #Bullish Flag #Support Zone
Daily analysis
AUD/USD started the week at 0.7225 and climbed to a high of 0.7283. The pair then reversed directions and dropped to a low of 0.7158, testing support at 0.7160. The pair closed at 0.7191. The Australian Dollar faces a perfect storm of volatility in the week ahead as high-profile event risk on the homegrown and the external fronts looms ahead. Monetary policy considerations are first to take center stage, only to be replaced by churn in risk sentiment trends. The RBA is expected …
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USD/CAD Bullish Flag

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2015年04月15日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CAD, 予想レート: 1.2711, 予想日: 1日6月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Usdcad #Bullish Flag #Demand And Supply #Liquidity Hunt
USD/CAD has been trading inside a wide range formation since beginning of the year, forming a bullish flag pattern (see Figure 1) which points for further gains once we break the 1.2830 resistance level. However first we need to clear the stops below current 1.2350 support level. This support level has been hit for just too many times and it's a warning that before to go up we must have a false
breakout to the downside to suck in seller and to wipe out the long weak hands.
Figure 1. USD/CAD W
…
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Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2015年04月18日

Update 1: As expected we managed to break below the big support level of 1.2350 as per my prediction, and coincidence or not we stopped right at the area highlighted by me in Figure 2. Now we should see the market return back inside the big range

VALTRAD avatar
VALTRAD 2015年04月18日

Очень интересно, придётся исследование провести, копнуть глубже. А на истории похожие паттерны встречались? Зерно сомнения про поход вниз посеяно.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2015年05月02日

Update 2: So far this pair has been moving as per my plan. Now we need a retest of former support level at 1.2400. At first this will produce a minor reaction but the momentum should keep pushing to the upside and ultimately to see this pair trading back inside 1.2400-1.2800 range

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2015年05月09日

Update 3: We're still consolidating inside a wide range between 1.2200-1.1950. We need a break above the upside resistance in order for it to gain more upside momentum.

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AUD/NZD Multi Decade Support Level

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年09月03日  in #Trader's blog #AUD/NZD #Elliott Wave #Round Number #Bullish Flag
I've been posting this analysis in the Technical Analysis Contest as well, you can find it here: AUD/NZD Multi Decade Support Level
AUD/NZD is approaching a multi decade support level at 1.0400 which I think will provide some good trading opportunities. In Figure 1 you can see the weekly chart and the strong sell of from the past few months. Since April 2013 after we broke the psychological level of 1.2100 big round number the downward momentum accelerate and we barely see any kind of ret…
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Shalomavahatikvah 2014年09月03日

Very plausible. Nice.

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AUD/NZD Multi Decade Support Level

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年08月16日。分析予想通貨ペア:AUD/NZD, 予想レート: 1.1036, 予想日: 1日10月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #AUD/NZD #Elliott Wave #Round Number #Bullish Flag #AUN/NZD
AUD/NZD is approaching a multi decade support level at 1.0400 which I think will provide some good trading opportunities. In Figure 1 you can see the weekly chart and the strong sell of from the past few months. Since April 2013 after we broke the psychological level of 1.2100 big round number the downward momentum accelerate and we barely see any kind of retracement.
Figure 1. AUD/NZD Weekly chart
The five wave cycle has been completed and now we have entered in a tight congestion zone …
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Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年08月24日

Update : although in the last couple of days we have been pressing higher this move looks overbought and we should expect some retracement back inside the range but not further than 1.0950. Next resistance is at around previous week high at 1.1100 where next support is at 1.1035

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年08月30日

Update 2: This low from the 1.0620 swing low looks right now has developed only a structure of 3 waves to the upside it's not yet suggesting big impulsive so we can still wait for a retracement to the downside. Next big resistance level stands at 1.1220 and intermediate support at 1.1125 which looks very weak after so many retests, so we can expect next time a break below

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年09月13日

Update 3: As expected and as per my previous update the 1.2220 has indeed provided a good resistance although we broke above it the move was not sustained and we dropped back below it and further more. For next week 1.1000 big round number should provide a good support see figure attached for more reference.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年09月20日

Update 4: Although it seems we broke below 1.1000 round number we have another big support level at 1.0950 which can hold the price for further declining. The line in the sand remains 1.0930 which if it fails to hold the price we can see further retracement. However since we're in an impulsive move this should not happen.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年09月27日

update 5: As expected 1.1000 has indeed provided a good support but unfortunately the reaction from this level was overextended. We have stopped at 1.1130 which is a line in a sand at this stage, if the bulls manage to break further up than it's game over if not we can expect a 3 wave decline. First support came in at 1.1070

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AUD/NZD Near Multi Decade Support Level (part 2)

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年05月15日。分析予想通貨ペア:AUD/NZD, 予想レート: 1.0670, 予想日: 1日7月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/NZD #Elliott Wave #Bearish Trend #Round Number #Bullish Flag
AUD/NZD is approaching a multi decade support level at 1.0400 which I think will provide some good trading opportunities. In Figure 1 you can see the weekly chart and the strong sell of from the past few months. Since April 2013 after we broke the psychological level of 1.2100 big round number the downward momentum accelerate and we barely see any kind of retracement.
Figure 1. AUD/NZD Weekly Chart
The five wave cycle has been completed and now we have entered in a tight congestion zone wh…
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Omela avatar
Omela 2014年05月17日

it is perfectly!)

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年05月24日

Update 1: So far so good it seems that for now we're heading lower and developing wave D as per my prediction. There is not much support underway until previous swing low at 1.0650 so we should expect price following the line of least resistance for now which is down

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年06月18日

Update 2: The breakout above the 1.0900 level was a false one as momentum couldn't keep up and we're back into the range. It seems that wave C has not ended there and instead took shape of an 3 wave correction abc. Now wave D is under developing and there is only one thing that stand between reaching our target which is the previous swing low at 1.0750 and we need a daily close below it for further downside movement

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年06月22日

Update 3: So far previous swing low 1.0750 has been providing some support but the fact that we're not seeing any kind of reaction is reason enough to consider that we may as well break below that level and complete a 3 wave to the downside and reach our target at around 1.0670

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年06月28日

Update 4: We finally broke below last swing low at 1.0750 and from here on we should see momentum start building to the downside and reach our target. Based on Elliott Wave projection we should end the wave D around our target and above previous swing low at 1.0640

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EUR/USD Bull Trap (Part 2)

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年01月15日  in #Trader's blog #Resistance #EUR/USD #Bullish Flag #Bull Trap #Spike
If you have been following my blog yesterday I've made a prediction on EUR/USD saying that we're heading lower and the spike up that happened during the yesterday's London session is just a bull trap, you can check out my blog post here: EUR/USD Bull Traps
Now we can look back and see how price action developed after I've made that prediction. In Figure 1 you can see the chart that I was posting it yesterday. At that point I said the fact that we couldn't close above the resistance level and …
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