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CAD/CHF Range Boxing

Daytrader21 Posted 15 July as Analysis on CAD/CHF, Target: 0.7293, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD/CHF #Psychological Number #Momentum #Range Box
We can see that for the most part cross pairs like CAD/CHF have the tendencies to move in consolidation box, which i call range box effect. Right now we're moving inside one of those range zone between 0.7500 round number and psychological number which is also the bottom of the current box and 0.7700 resistance and top of the box.
Major Levels to watch:
  • 0.7500 Big round number and psychological number and also support level.
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Daytrader21 15 Aug.

Update 5: As expected we continued to push lower and 0.7500 big round number provided a good resistance. Since we're trading well below that key figure we should expect further downside movement, however we need a close below 0.7400 for more downside pressure.

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Daytrader21 28 Aug.

Update 6: Even though we broke hard below key support 0.7330 level we're back up as we erased the last week sell off. Next week expect a retest of 0.7330 before any downside move to be seen

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Daytrader21 31 Aug.

Update 7: Since Mondays are typically quiet days the current range established between 0.7330 previous week high and resistance level, and the support round number 0.7200 should hold. We're currently just 28 pips away from my forecast target of 0.7293. In the short term it can go both ways however most likely the price pattern should retest previous swing high before to go down.

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Daytrader21 1 Sep.

Final Update: As per my previous update even though we did more than just to retest previous week's high at 0.7330, as we broke above it triggering the stops above and as expected this move didn't had strength as we moved back inside the range. The 0.7293 was also the middle of the current range zone and price gravitated towards that figure. This is quite an impressive forecast as it has 0% deviation.

My Forecast: 0.7293
Market Close at 12:00 GMT 1st of September: 0.7293
Deviation: 0% Deviation.

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foreignexchange 1 Sep.

Congratulation DT21 : )

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CAD/CHF Range Box

Daytrader21 Posted 31 May as Analysis on CAD/CHF, Target: 0.7538, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD/CHF #Fibonacci Extension #Psychological Number #Cadchf #Range Box
We can see that for the most part cross pairs like CAD/CHF have the tendencies to move in consolidation box, which i call range box effect. Right now we're moving inside one of those range zone between 1.4000 round number and psychological number which is also the bottom of the current box and 1.4600 resistance and top of the box.
Major Levels to watch:
  • 0.7500 Big round number and psychological number and also support level.
…
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Daytrader21 14 June

Update 2: Right now the 0.7500 support level and big round number is acting as support as per my analysis. We should see more consolidation during this time of the year and we should see many times this level being retested. Next week resistance stands at 0.7600, which makes just a 100 pips range from support level.

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Daytrader21 19 June

Update 3: Nothing much happened since my last update we have continued to move inside a very narrow range between 0.7600 resistance level and 0.7400 support level. For next week we should expect the market to be trading inside this two limits.

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Daytrader21 26 June

Update 4: There is nothing new to add on this pair as over the last few week we have moved inside a very narrow range between 0.7600 resistance level and 0.7400. For the following week the bias remains still the same and to move inside this consolidation.

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Daytrader21 29 June

Update 5: Due to high volatility environment we're back below our key support level and round number 0.7500. However if we can get a close above the round number there is a high probability that my target of 0.7538 will be hit

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Daytrader21 30 June

Update 6: As expected we hold above the big figure 0.7500 and we close at 0.7520 only 18 pips deviation from my initial forecast which was 0.7538.

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CAD/CHF ABC Correction

Daytrader21 Posted 12 Oct. as Analysis on CAD/CHF, Target: 0.8328, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD/CHF #Pivot Point #Elliott Wave #Upward Channel #Abc Correction
Since beginning of the year CAD/CHF has started trading inside an upward trading channel (see Figure 1). Based on Elliott Wave count we have completed a five wave cycle inside this upward channel and it's wise to expect from current levels a corrections. My projection sees wave A coming down to the base of wave 4 at around 0.8400 from where we should expect another run up towards 0.8500 and complete the sequence with another wave down.
Figure 1. CAD/CHF Daily Chart. Elliott Wave Count
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Daytrader21 19 Oct.

Update 1: The sell of that started from around the 0.8600 level has continued to extend to the downside as expected. Based on Elliott Wave the wave A should develop in 3 waves of smaller degree, so in this regard we have just completed wave a of A. Now we're in the process of developing wave b of A whihc should take form of an congestion zone between 0.8300-0.8450 levels.

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Daytrader21 15 Nov.

Update 2: For now we have completed only wave A of higher degree which has took shape of another 3 wave of smaller degree. Key resistance level remains at 0.8500 big round number and the fact that we had a weekly close below it suggest that bears for now are in control. Support for next week comes in at 0.8400 level

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Daytrader21 22 Nov.

Update 3: Unfortunately we broke above key resistance level and big round number and it may be the case we're heading up as we broke above current range zone and usually this means further movement in the direction of the breakout. However if in the first days of next week the market is going to retrace back and close below 0.8500 this can be considered a false breakout

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Daytrader21 29 Nov.

Update 4: As expected and as per my previous update we stared selling from beginning of the week and by the end of the week we have a strong close below 0.8500 level. This is a much more complex  retracement and it may be the case we're developing a double zig-zag pattern

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CAD/CHF Head and Shoulder Pattern

Daytrader21 Posted 15 June as Analysis on CAD/CHF, Target: 0.8442, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #Reversal #Bullish #CAD/CHF #Head And Shoulder Pattern #Neckline
The CAD/CHF daily inverse head and shoulders pattern (see Figure 1)may suggest the bearish trend is over and we already started a new bullish trend. The neckline has already been broken entered in a new bullish trend. The head and shoulder pattern suggest that the minimum target to the upside is 0.8620. the target is calculated by measuring vertically from the lowest point to the neckline which is than projected down from the breakout(see green line)
Also the current price structure confi…
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Daytrader21 22 June

Update 1: We already broke above previous swing high and resistance level at around 0.8300 and we had a close above level suggesting further upside momentum. From here on 0.8300 should act as support and should limit any downside movement.

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Daytrader21 7 July

Update 2: As expected the daily head and shoulder pattern is working and momentum has keep pressing to the upside. WE're very close to hit the H&S's projection at 0.8440. Currently we need a break and close above 0.8400 to have confirmation for further upside movement.

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Daytrader21 12 July

Update 3: It seems that the H&S pattern has been completed after the recent sell off, but as long as we stay above 0.8300 there is a change to have another try towards 0.8440.Right now we're in a very complex price structure witouth any clear wave patterns, so we'll have to wait more for further clues

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Daytrader21 19 July

Update 4: Nothing new happened here as further consolidation took place. Momentum is still pressing to the upside so we may need another run up towards our target before any downside move to be seen

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Daytrader21 26 July

Update 5: As expected we touched again our target at 0.8440 but unfortunately again we sold of after we touched that figure but as long as 0.8350 support level holds the price we may hope for another run to the upside as current price structure still favors the bulls

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CAD/CHF Downward Channel

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Resistance #Bearish #CAD/CHF #Elliott Wave #Channel #Pivot
I've been posted this analysis in Technical Analysis Contest as well but I thought it has great potential to turn into a nice trade so I'm sharing my analysis here as well: CAD/CHF Downward Channel
Over the last several year CAD/CHF trend has been very consistent and we have been moving in a downward channel without any kind of deep retracement which shows the fact that this bearish trend is very strong and current price action doesn't suggest that there are many big support level that ca…
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CAD/CHF Downward Channel

Daytrader21 Posted 13 Apr. as Analysis on CAD/CHF, Target: 0.7785, Date: 2nd of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #Bearish #CAD/CHF #Elliott Wave #Downward Channel #Pivot
Over the last several year CAD/CHF trend has been very consistent and we have been moving in a downward channel without any kind of deep retracement which shows the fact that this bearish trend is very strong and current price action doesn't suggest that there are many big support level that can stop this bearish trend. I'm still expecting this trend to press lower and to retest the all time swing low level at 0.7100.
In Figure 1 we have the CAD/CHF weekly chart where we can visualize how slo…
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Convallium 13 Apr.

Daytrader21 when do you have  time to write so many blog posts?  it is amazing) !

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Daytrader21 21 Apr.

Update 1: We have been trading in a very narrow market in the last week between 0.7960 support level and 0.8030 resistance level.This is just the first leg that started from the 0.8160 swing high level, based on my prediction we should see a five wave to the downside.

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Daytrader21 7 May

Update 2: The narrow market condition has been very persistent over the last two weeks and we're still stuck in a tight congestion zone: 0.8050-0.7950. I suspect we're going to break to the downside and trade in the direction of the main trend.

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Daytrader21 17 May

Update 3: Unfortunately this pair doesn't follow my forecast and it seems the momentum already started to pick up.

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CAD/CHF Final Stage of the Downtrend

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Feb. as Analysis on CAD/CHF, Target: 0.8270, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD #CHF #Support #Resistance #Reversal #CAD/CHF #Consolidation #Downtrend
The Bearish trend has been slowing down in CAD/CHF in the past several weeks as the downside momentum has failed to pick up and we're stuck in to some decent consolidation. In Figure 1 we can have a look at the daily chart and how this down trend have moved inside a downward channel We can also see how each previous swing low after was broken to the downside has turned into a resistance(see red line Figure 1).
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Daytrader21 9 Mar.

Update 1:Last week we saw another failed attempt to break below last week low. this should be seen as a bullish sign and this should hold as support, next week look for momentum to start picking up, Next major resistance is at 0.8050 and than the major 0.8200 round number

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Daytrader21 14 Mar.

Update 2: Unfortunately we have made a new marginal low after we break previous swing low at 0.7880 which suggest more consolidation. Major resistance is at 0.8000 big round number if we can get a weekly close about thatlevel we can expect our target to be hit

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CAD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis

Daytrader21 Posted 10 Nov. as Analysis on CAD/CHF, Target: 0.8680, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Price Action #CAD/CHF #Elliott Wave #Probability #Downward Channel #Downside Momentum
The CAD/CHF currency pair does not form a major pair even though the swiss franc is considered a major currency, but over the past year it has provided many trading opportunities.
If we zoom in on a daily chart we can see that the downside movement started from 0.9540 high all the way down to 0.8520 low, over the last year has formed a downward channel that conforms with the Elliot Wave requirement of a five waves sequence, so as the down swing leg towards the 0.8520 low is the wave E for the do…
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Daytrader21 15 Nov.

Update 1: The market has barely moved and we are still in the 0.88-0.87 consolidation zone. Wave one is completed and from here on we should expect some kind of correction but we should not go below the strat point if wave 1, 0.8520 support zone in oder for our prediction to work out

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Daytrader21 22 Nov.

Update 2: We finally broke the 0.8700 support level and developed the wave 2, but we can still go all the way down to the starting point of wave 1, around 0.8520 zone. Expecting more consolidation ahead as based on Elliot Wave this stage of the price action is very slow

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Daytrader21 29 Nov.

Update 3: We're now testing the bottom of wave E which must hold in order for our analysis to be valid. So far the market in the last 3 days has failed to break below suggesting that buyers are coming in the market. This should be wave 2.The next resistance is around 0.8760

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Daytrader21 9 Dec.

Update 4: the fact that we broke below wave E 0.8500 level it has invalidated our strategy, however this week can be crucial if we can reverse the current downside momentum and close above 0.8500 it may turn into support level once again

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Daytrader21 14 Dec.

Update5: The current downside move has completed a five wave sequence and we already have sign that the market has bottomed at 0.8330. Next big resistance level is around 0.8500 round number here we should see some reaction but the momentum may carry on as it's year end flow.

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