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Volatility in USD/CAD to Die Down

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2455, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USA #Oil #USD/CAD #Canada #Us Dollar #Us Economy #Loonie #Wti CMD/USD
The USD/CAD experienced unprecedented volatility this year, largely due to the oil price shock. Prices first fell over 50 percent to below $50/barrel, then rallied 50% from here to just above $64 dollars. Canada is a large oil exporter. You can see these swings on the weekly chart below.
But with Oil starting to enter a range between $50 and $60 dollar per barrel, the USD/CAD should stabilize as well. Canada may also benefit from the stronger US economy.
On the technical front, we seem to be top…
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fxsurprise8 1 July

My prediction has been spot on so far. The USD/CAD bounced right at the 1.2500 mark then fell over 370 pips to a low of 1.2170. But again as predicted that volatility will decline, the lows were quickly bought up and the currency pair rallied back to the 1.2500. The total monthly range for USD/CAD is 436 pips so far.

Prices are currently trading at 1.2476, about 21 pips above my target. Hoping for some US Dollar weakness into the end of the month.

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Loonie to Fail Test at 1.1200

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.1190, Date: 3rd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD #USD/CAD #Canada #Us Dollar #Usdcad #Canadian Dollar #Loonie
The USD/CAD has a stellar September that saw it rally 326 pips. Prices are currently pushing right on the 1.1200 round figure.
This is somewhat of an important milestone for the currency pair. Back in March of this year, prices spiked at 1.1278 then fell over 600 pips. Given the strong rally so far I don't expect a major selloff but I do think that the gains for the USD are overdone. Thus I'm betting on prices being subdued below 1.1200.
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5 Comments
Stix avatar
Stix 1 Oct.

Best wishes for October. :) :)

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 1 Oct.

Yes!!! I support you) And have a good day!!) 1 October)

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fxsurprise8 27 Oct.

While the 1.1200 level didn't hold, the rally slowed down substantially in October. The USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.1250, 60 pips away from my target. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday may push the pair back below 1.1200.

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fxsurprise8 29 Oct.

Good Canadian figures and a weak US Dollar pushed the USD/CAD to my target...and then the pair fell some more to completely overshoot 1.1190. We are currently trading at 1.1138, still a long ways of from 1.1190

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fxsurprise8 30 Oct.

The FOMC decision helped my ''position'' by jump-staring a US Dollar rally. The US Central Bank issued a surprisingly hawkish statement, upping its assessment of the US economy. According to the FOMC, there has been a substantial improvement in the jobs outlook and the underlying strength in the broader US economy.

The USD/CAD moved up from 1.1130 to 1.1224 in the aftermath of the Fed statement. Since then the pair has weakened somewhat and is currently trading at 1.1196, just 6 pips away from my target!

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