annatimone's Blog
A change of fortune for the Rupee...fingers crossed
Good news to see significant rebounds in the value of the Indian Rupee and the Sensex after the appointment of the new Governor. The currency move will have been accentuated by a nicely orchestrated piece of intervention, sensibly timed to make the most of a change in circumstances. As I have emphasised before, intervention timed like this is effective because it backs up other factors that the market consider positive, and the first actions of this technocrat Governor have provided that boost. …
Intervention in India
I find it sad that FX intervention has to be reached for in India. When reserves are finite, and the numbers are in the public domain, it is very difficult to see this strategy working successfully on its own. Intervention can really only be justified as a viable option when it can buy time for the fundamentals that are causing the selling, to change; but, the authorities are under huge pressure to ramp up their response to the crisis, and their options are limited. OR... you could hopefully ha…
Barclays: Friend or Foe?
You might have noticed that Barclays declared that they will raise capital, mainly through a 1 to 4 rights issue at a deeply discounted price. By itself, this announcement is pretty significant, but it brings to a head a `quiet war` that has been rumbling on since Barclays turned middle east towards salvation back in the dark days of 2008. The PRA (the newly formed regulatory arm of the Bank) has clearly set out its stall by insisting that levels of capital held by our banks should be (in simp…
Commodity Trading in Jeopardy as Fed Reviews Policies
The Federal Reserve is considering reversing decade-old rule allowing banks to ship oil and storing metal. How it could influence commodity trading? If the Federal Reserve reverses the rule allowing banks ship oil and store metal, it would be the biggest exclusion of banks from a market and it would put banks commodity-trading business in jeopardy. Most likely, commodity prices would stabilized or even go lower, because of the heavy impact it will have on banks. And for the banks, it woul…