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Focusing on Commodity Ccy

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2016年08月29日  in #Trader's blog #Carry Trade
Hi, My focus remains on the commodity currencies and I had strong reasons to put a good margin of my balance on these commodity pairs during this past few months. It comes as no surprise that the carry trade has been revived when you look at the insane global easing measures which saw major central banks introducing negative interest rates.
Recent article from Bloomberg: Currency Traders Can't Lose as Trusted Strategies Reap Big Gains is just proving the case in favor of the carry trade.
B…
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RBA Holds Rates at Record Low

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年08月05日  in #Trader's blog #Volatility #AUD/USD #Rba #Carry Trade #Interest Rates #Fed #Yield
Despite the fact that RBA has left it's main interest rates at record low level aussie has kept on rallying and the main reason is because in current low volatility environment investor who can't make a profit from a barely moving market are chasing yields and AUD/USD has long been one of the favorite currencies for the carry trade.
RBA left the interest rates unchanged at 2.5% and RBA's Stevens said :“The most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates,” which c…
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3 コメント
Neu_spir8 avatar
Neu_spir8 2014年08月05日

If current 4H candle close below .9335 then am going short, perfect analysis man,all the best.

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Daytrader21 2014年08月05日

Neu_spir8 I see what you mean with 0.9335 is a strong resistance level which previously has acted as support, a good level

ANABEVZ avatar
ANABEVZ 2014年08月05日

good luck!

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NZD/USD Looking Beyond the Carry Trade

Daytrader21  in #Technical analysis #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Carry Trade #NZD/USD #Elliott Wave #Upward Channel
For many of you who are constantly following my blog already know that I'm holding a long kiwi position and even despite recent sell of I still hold this position and you can find the full reasons behind this trade by reading my last article here: Carry Trade Returns Here is another blog post back from April: RBNZ The Most Hawkish CB
In this blog we're going to look beyond the carry trade and have a look at …
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VikaChechenkova avatar
VikaChechenkova 2014年08月02日

it's so difficult!))

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NZD/USD Looking Beyond the Carry Trade

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年07月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:NZD/USD, 予想レート: 0.8647, 予想日: 1日9月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #Carry Trade #Consolidation #NZD/USD #Elliott Wave #Range #Upward Channel
Since current price action of NZD/USD has been greatly influenced by the carry trade this time we're going to look on just the technicals. On the weekly chart (see Figure 1)we can see that starting from around last year NZD/USD has start developing an upward channel which may suggest that we'll break away from current multi-year range bound activity. Elliott Wave also suggest that we're in the earlier inception of this new bullish trend as we only can count 2 impulsive waves with the 3 wave curr…
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4 コメント
Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年08月03日

Update 1. We're already starting to see first signs that current sell of is done, momentum is already starting to pick up and although we're still consolidating between 0.8530-0.8460 this is very healthy for the market as we're building this new base for the next leg up

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Daytrader21 2014年08月09日

Update 2: Right now we're consolidating between 0.8420-0.8500 which can be the base for the next up leg, but first we need a break and a close above 0.8500 big round number. Right now wave ii of 3 has been completed and we're looking for wave iii of 3 to develop in coming days

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Daytrader21 2014年08月16日

Update 3: As expected we continue to consolidate between 0.8400 support level and 0.8530 resistance level, and only a break above this resistance can ignite some more upside momentum. There is nothing much happening outside this levels so any break of this 2 levels are important to watch.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年08月24日

Update 4: although we break below 0.8400 support level we fail to close below it, and this is a strong case for the bulls to regain control of this market. However we need momentum to start picking up and have a break and a close above 0.8500 level

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Trading Contest Performance Update

Daytrader21  in #Technical analysis #Trader's blog #Trader Contest #Carry Trade #Timing #Trading Performance
We're half way through this month Trader Contest and I was quite surprised to check out my trading performance that shows me that I've been trading EUR/AUD 60% out of all my trades (see Figure 1). The reason why I've been trading this pair was because I was expecting to see a breakout to the upside as I was expecting further AUD weakening. We where in a range so I keep scaling back my position as soon as the market retreated back. Although I was expecting further AUD weakening this doesn't m…
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Carry Trade Returns

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年07月10日  in #Trader's blog #Volatility #Carry Trade #Interest Rates #NZD/USD #Rbnz #Yield
In current low volatility environment (see Figure 1)it's quite hard for investors to pull out some decent profits so the carry trading strategy becomes more attractive as it generate yield. So in this regard if you wish to find more about the carry trade I'll recommend you to read my article: Carry Trade Returns
Figure 1. FX Market Volatility

Here is a quick look on what to expect with my article:
"Historically speaking when it comes to interest rates we are at historic low…
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Yen Pairs On The Move

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年04月09日  in #Trader's blog #Yen #Boj #Carry Trade #S P500 #Us Dollar #Risk Aversion #Stimulus Program
The big risk event from recent session was BOJ rate decision, but it only was of big importance because market participants assumed that the BOJ would follow up with an upgrade of his stimulus program. The BOJ did nothing however the yen pairs were sold of in a strong fashion way but this only happened during the NY session.
Figure 1. USD/JPY Daily Chart

What we saw with the yen movements was not a general risk aversion theme because the S&P500 and also the US dollar were not confirming this mo…
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independeceday32 avatar
independeceday32 2014年04月09日

No probem daytrader21, I think this armike speaking respectfully defending his opinion. Clearly not, stop hunting define the whole movement in the yen yesterday, and I think the same way that daytrader21 about this topic.Armike I think it is clear that in forex, even OTC, there are manipulations, a week ago came the news that the FBI was investigating big banks operating in forex, because their employees by messages through the Bloomberg or Reuters terminals, agreed positions market. This makes clear that there are manipulations in forex, but I think due to lower volume than other market.

independeceday32 avatar
independeceday32 2014年04月09日

sorry, I wrote the name wrong .... Airmike.!!

Airmike avatar
Airmike 2014年04月09日

Sorry guys,I think is onlz misunderstanding. My opinion is a bit damaged by professional deformation :). It is very hard to explain, when we are talking about different stuff. for example Market - Forex. Manipulation - SLH. I am talking about Forex and SLH and probability to see something like this by small investor eyes on daily basis. My opinion is that is no chance to see or prove any SLH technique just by the screening a chart. that's impossible. 99% of breakout spike are definitely not SLH, and movements about 100 points are not at all. Thats my opinion :)

independeceday32 avatar
independeceday32 2014年04月09日

I agree with you Airmike, it is impossible for a movement of 100 points, is to SLH, and previously I did not mean that the whole movement yesterday the USD / JPY was due to SLH, it is impossible, I just used a colloquial talking.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年04月09日

Mike, I say the same let's just not get lost into the semantics and lose sight of the things that really matter.

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