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Some Calm for the Singapore Dollar?

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on USD/SGD, Target: 1.3776, Date: 1 von July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #USD/SGD #Fomc #Us Dollar #Singapore #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #No Trends
The Singapore Dollar had a volatile year. First the bears took prices down from a high of 1.4440 in January to a low of 1.3349 in April. This month we're seeing a bit of a US Dollar resurgence with prices closing 335 pips higher in May. But as you can see on the chart below, the last two weekly candles were small, indicating slowing down of the price action.
Looking at things on a more long-term basis, the USD/SGD is now trading near the same levels as back in March of 2015. So all that volatili…
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Japanese Yen to Stay in Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 112.52, Date: 1 von May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #USD #USD/JPY #Consolidation #Japanese Yen #Ranging #Yen Strength #Congestion
After a wild first two months of the year, the Japanese Yen has a calmer session in March. The pair closed lower by only 12 pips, forming a doji pattern on the monthly chart. This pattern signals indecision in the market. The market usually moves in a range about 70% of the time and only trends the other 30%.
An added problem for any trends is the active intervention by the Japanese ministry of Finance. Look at the 4h chart below. Notice the the pair keeps getting bought around 111 dollars for 1…
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fxsurprise8 23 Apr.

The pair initially broke below the 111 barrier. But this week the losses are starting to get rewound and the pair slowly inched up to 110. Then on Friday the BOJ released new loan measures that indicate a willingness to do more in terms of easing.

This indicates that my noted intervention pattern from above is intact, even though the Bank didn't directly sell.

On the technical front. we're currently quoted at 111.80 right now. This is still about 72 pips away from my forecast. But with the next BOJ meeting next week, we'll have plenty of volatility to jolt this pair, hopefully to the upside.

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fxsurprise8 26 Apr.

Another update. Things are not looking good today, the USD/JPY is down another 50 pips to 111.30. While the pattern above is still valid, this day to day noise is bringing me further away from my target.

Hopefully the FOMC or BOJ events tomorrow will jolt the pair higher. The Bank of Japan is rumored to add to QE at this meeting. This would be bullish for the USD/JPY, although the long-lasting impact of these interventions is questionable.

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USD/CHF Still Range-Bound

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.974, Date: 2 von November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CHF #USD #Consolidation #USD/CHF #Us Dollar #Swiss Franc #Swissy #Range Bound
The USD/CHF has stayed remarkably stable for the past few months. Ever since March, prices have been oscillating above and below the current 0.9700 level. We've traded as high as 0.9902 and as low as 0.9257 but ultimately the pair keeps coming back to what appears to be its fair value.
I expect more of the same. In August the USD/CHF closed only 9 pips lower, while in September we saw a 90 pips gain. But in percentage terms, this is below 1%, barely noticeable for a monthly bar. Even on a lower …
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Calmer Months for EUR/GBP

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/GBP, Target: 0.738, Date: 2 von November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #UK #Euro #Cable #Consolidation #EUR/GBP #European Union #Range Bound #Data Dependence
The EUR/GBP is generally not a fun pair to trade. During 2015, in 5 of the last 9 months, the pair closed within 100 pips of it's opening price. But this hasn't been the case in August and September. The high volatility across all markets led to a 292 pips gain for the Euro in August. This was followed by another large range in September of 240 pips. In addition to this, as can be seen on the chart below, volatility has been going up.
The 14-day Average True Range has greatly increased, from a l…
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The USD/DKK to Remain in a Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on USD/DKK, Target: 6.676, Date: 2 von November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #DKK #Consolidation #Us Dollar #Range #USD/DKK #Danish Krone #Range Bound #Range Trading #Denmark
The USD/DKK has remained in a range since January, for a total of 8 months now. On January 25th we opened the week at 6.6782 and right now we are trading at 6.6760. This 20 pips difference in this pair is nothing. It's the equivalent to about 4-5 Euro pips.
While ranges don't last forever, there is no reason to bet that this one will end in October. Even during September we've seen the USD/DKK trade mostly unchanged. On September 1st we opened at 6.6472 and we look set to close the month near 6.…
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