Community
Blog
Daytrader21's Blog

Daytrader21's Blog

Avatar

NZDJPY Range Box Effect

Daytrader21 Posted 14 May as Analysis on NZD/JPY, Target: 90.8400, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliot Wave #Correction #NZD/JPY #Range Box #Price Structure
NZD/JPY has been moving over the paste few years in a big range boxes and that's usually the case with a lot of pair crosses as this is their normal behavior. In Figure 1 we can see how this price action looks like. Usually when we enter in the territory of a new range boxes the new boxes that will form in the right side of the chart will use the middle of the range box from the left as the top and as the
bottom will use the middle of the box from beneath the price action where mos…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

3 Comments
Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 16 May

Update 1: Next week support level stands at the 88.00 level and previous swing low point, which is also wave X of our double zig-zag pattern, From here on we should expect either consolidation without the low to be taken our or a move straight to the upside.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 22 May

Update 2: Since last week nothing much has happened as the market was moving inside a narrow trading range between 89.30 resistance level and 88.30 support level. The market may need another retest of the 87.00 level before going higher and resume the wxy pattern

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 29 May

Update 3: The 88.00 round number and support level has been again retested but we couldn't break below it. Look next week for a rebound. Right now we're in a tight range between 88.00 support level and the big round number 90.00 which act as resistance.

orto leave comments
Avatar

USD/CHF in Correction Mode

Daytrader21 Posted 14 May as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9289, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CHF #Correction #Snb #Psychological Number #Black Swan
Even thought back in January USD/CHF crashed due the SNB Black Swan even, caused by SNB decision to abandon the 1.2 peg, we're back near parity level, and this is all due to the US dollar exceptional rally. The broad based dollar strength was playing a key role in this impressive recovery and we should see this pair above current year high around 1.0200 level as soon as the dollar bullish trend resume. However right now we're trading inside a big corrective price structure.
…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

8 Comments
View 3 more comments
Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 14 June

Update 4: As expected right now we're establishing the next range box between big figure 0.9500 and current top of the range and support level at 0.9070 current bottom. Next week we should see further consolidation.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 19 June

Update 5: As expected the market was moving inside a very tight range moving slowly to the downside in order to retest key support level at 0.9070. For next week resistance stands at 0.9300 which is a broken support level that will act as new resistance.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 26 June

Update 6: We indeed retested the 0.9300 resistance level and current price is a little bit above at 0.9350 which is still inside the range zone where the market could see a move lower. We need a break and a daily close below 0.9300 round number.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 29 June

Update 7: As expected we broke below the key round number 0.9300 and we have gone as low as 0.9240 which is also the current daily low and which should act as support so for the next 24 hours we should expect price consolidate between 0.9300 and 0.9240

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 30 June

Update 8: The market close above the key resistance level and round number 0.9300, and we where 23 pips away from my forecast

orto leave comments
Avatar

Preparing The Week Ahead

Daytrader21 Updated 3 May  in #Trader's blog #Nfp #Volatility #Rba #Cable #Crash #Correction #Seasonality #Risk Events #Grexit

The coming week is going to be more important than you may think, not only because there are many risk events on the doc that can spur volatility but also because it can mark the turn in the equity market. Don't call me wrong because I'm not calling a crash just a major correction. Since this can be a major topic on itself I'm not going to talk about it here as there are many details that need to be covered. However I'm just going to give you a major hint and I would recommend to watch ES react…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

1 Comments
fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 3 May

great article. Where do you find up to date probabilities for rates?

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 3 May

fxsurprise8 You would have to look at bond yields. Look at the 12 month bill  yielding 1.930%, cash rates are at 2.25% -->big money saying 25 bps cut on Tuesday. Here is a free website where you can look at yields (see above), or you can find the data in excel and construct your charts there. I hope it helps. 

fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 3 May

ah thanks a lot

CommunitySupport avatar
CommunitySupport 4 May

orto leave comments
Avatar

GBPCAD Elliott Wave completed

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Feb. as Analysis on GBP/CAD, Target: 1.9235, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/CAD #Consolidation #Elliott Wave #Correction #Cycle
Based on Elliott Wave GBP/CAD has completed a five wave cycle (see Figure 1) and from here on we should expect a 3 wave correction to unfold. There may be also the case that wave 5 has not been yet completed and can also develop a five wave cycle right now we can count only 3 waves in the wave V, and it appears we're right now developing wave 4 of V. Based on Elliot Wave wave 4 can take form of an prolonged type of consolidation action, and in this regard we may spend some time between 1.8800 su…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

6 Comments
View 1 more comments
Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 22 Feb.

Update 1: It may be the case we're getting an overextended wave V as the sequence is still not finished yet. Wave A has still not been developed and as such we should label as Wave A the first major sell off from the highs. Major support level remains the 0.8700 level

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 28 Feb.

Update 2: It seems that wave V is overextending it's move and we have yet to see the wave A developing so far. On the weekly chart we have a PB which is a reversal pattern and may be the sign that we're about to retrace. Big support remains 1.9000 big round number and resistance the PB's high at 1.9550

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 7 Mar.

Update 3: We broke key support zone of 1.8970, our only chance to see a rebound is for previous week's low to hold and to move back up and develop wave B, otherwise wave A length can be much more deeper than was expecting.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 14 Mar.

Update 4: Wave A has no completed a 3 wave move of smaller degree and as such we should expect the market to develop from here on wave B and see the market moving back up. For next week support stands at 0.8800 and resistance at 0.9000 big round number

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 21 Mar.

Update 5: Unfortunately we continue to expend the downside move and it seems the wave A is still not finished yet. But we are near big major pivot point 1.8700 which should provide some support. Our target will come near the 50% fib retracement from wave A so it's still probable that we will see that target hit

orto leave comments
Avatar

USD/JPY Elliott Wave Cycle Completed

Daytrader21 Posted 27 Dec. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 118.1100, Date: 2nd of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Elliott Wave #Correction #Range #Abc Correction #Bullish Trend #Support Resistance
Based on the Elliott Wave cycle the bullish trend that started in 2012 in USD/JPY as completed a 5 wave move(see Figure 1) and in this regard now we can expect some type of correction. This bullish move was quite straight forward without much correction only a shallow correction in wave IV. Now that we have completed a 5 wave move Elliott Wave suggest we should expect an ABC correction but this should push us back all the way towards the levels of wave 4 which will be quite a big downside move. …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

8 Comments
View 3 more comments
Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 28 Jan.

Update 2: USD/JPY has been contained inside a very tight range between 119.00 resistance zone and 117.00 support zone and also this area is the middle of a much wider range zone (see Figure 2).  Usually it's normal to consolidate in this region however based on Elliot wave we may have just completed a double zig-zag and we can expect the market to start breaking to the upside

WallStreetBlog avatar
WallStreetBlog 1 Feb.

Interesting!

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 1 Feb.

Update 3: 117.50 is a strong support, however due the fact it was tested for so many times it may be the case it will not hold anymore, in which case my forecast will be wrong. However there is a little chance if we gap to the upside on Sunday at the market open we may be heading back towards 118.00.

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 1 Feb.

Yeah i see your point of wiew even though eliot waves are not my preferate form of analysis. Me to see it at that level. This one could be tight.Cheers

Durden avatar
Durden 1 Mar.

good job 

orto leave comments
Avatar

USD/CAD 750 Pips Profits Since This Summer

Daytrader21 Posted 16 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Volatility #USD/CAD #Elliott Wave #Correction #Upward Channel
In this blog post I'm going to reproduce my analysis on USD/CAD. I've made this forecast this summer and my first target, above previous swing high 1.1300, was hit generating a nice 750 pips profit.
Here is what I had to say about USD/CAD back than: USD/CAD Uptrend Losing His Steam
"The current USD/CAD bullish trend is losing his momentum suggesting we have entered in a more prolonged type of correction especially since we have entered during the summer trading conditions, when volatility…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

1 Comments
VictoriaVika avatar
VictoriaVika 16 Oct.

Best of luck today! (Yesterday in past) :)))

orto leave comments
Avatar

AUD/CHF - ABC Correction

Daytrader21 Posted 16 Aug. as Analysis on AUD/CHF, Target: 0.8427, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliott Wave #Correction #AUD/CHF #Bearish Trend #Range Trading Boxes
There is no surprise as AUD/CHF has been moving in a tight congestion zone as we're still in consolidation. Based on Elliott Wave since mid-2012 we have been moving in a consistent bearish trend(see Figure 1) and now since we established the 0.7700 swing low, we're correcting this 5 wave cycle, We're still in the earlier stage of this correction as after 5 wave down we need an ABC correction to the upside and we only managed to put in place wave A so there is still more behind this movement, but…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

6 Comments
View 1 more comments
Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 30 Aug.

Update 2: Current price structure has changed as we broke and close above the psychological round number 0.8500. This only means wave A is overextended and also on the daily basis we're overbought so we still can expect a three wave down to complete wave B of the larger correction

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 6 Sep.

Update 3: It seems Wave B has formed a flat and this is the reason why we haven't seen any sell off towards 0.8300 but instead we broke above wave A swing level at 0.8550 and we are currently developing wave C. My prediction is still correct as we indeed move higher but my timing was wrong

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 13 Sep.

Update 4: It seems the move towards the 0.8700 was a false move as we already consumed all the rally and are back down. This only proves that wave B is also developing a three wave move. For next 0.8300 level should provide a good support level and also a rebound see image attached for more reference.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 20 Sep.

Update 5: The market has established a defined ranging zone between 0.8490 resistance zone and 0.8360 support level, and in the next week I'll be looking for the market to trade between this 2 levels as currently the market is developing wave b of B so there is a high chance for our target to be hit as currently we're only 36 pips away from my target.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 27 Sep.

Update 6: Although we retested our 0.8300 support level the fact that we couldn't have a weekly close below that level suggest the bears are weak and we can expect a rebound next week. There is not much resistance underway up until the round number 0.8400 level

orto leave comments
Avatar

AUD/CAD Summer Trading Conditions

Daytrader21 Posted 16 July  in #Trader's blog #Volatility #AUD/CAD #Elliot Wave #Correction #Summer Trading
Today I want to share a trade pattern idea that I've posted few weeks ago in the Technical Analysis Contest, you can check out that prediction here as well: AUD/CAD Summer Trading Conditions
Since beginning of the year AUD/CAD has been trading in a very consistent and clear way to the upside, without much correction along the way. I suspect this trend will enter in a prolonged pause as we're facingsummer trading condition where volatility dry out and the market is characterized by …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

1 Comments
VictoriaVika avatar
VictoriaVika 18 July

well done. Great work

orto leave comments
Avatar

AUD/CAD Summer Trading Conditions

Daytrader21 Posted 15 June as Analysis on AUD/CAD, Target: 1.0140, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Volatility #AUD/CAD #Elliott Wave #Correction #Range #Summer Trading
Since beginning of the year AUD/CAD has been trading in a very consistent and clear way to the upside, without much correction along the way. I suspect this trend will enter in a prolonged pause as we're facing summer trading condition where volatility dry out and the market is characterized by lots of congestion. In Figure 1 we can see how we already are approaching major resistance and how price is contained between to major levels 1.0000 big round number and also big support level and 1.0350 …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

6 Comments
View 1 more comments
Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 7 July

Update 2: Unfortunately we made a new swing low signaling that we may have further downside but if we can get a little momentum upside and a strong close above the psychological round number 1.0000 the bulls can feel safe. Until than next support I see is at 0.9820.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 12 July

Update 3: After the break below the  psychological round number 1.0000 we found some strength and we're now back above it with a strong close. this suggest that more strength to follow but first we need a break an close above the next round number 1.01000.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 19 July

Update 4: for the past week we further consolidate developing an H&S pattern that can been seen more clearly on the 4h chart. We have support at 1.0040 which should hold, but we also need a break 1.1000 round number and also the neck-line of the H&S pattern for more upside momentum

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 26 July

Update 5: WE are only 17 pips from our target and current price structure suggest that we should expect further consolidation during the next week, between the 1.0150 resistance level and 1.0100 support level.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 31 July

Update 6: There are only left less than 24 hours until the deadline and we're only 3 pips away from our target 1.0140. Based on Elliott Wave we continue down the road on developing only 3 waves price structure as per my indications. Price should be contained in this range until the end of the week so there is a great change we'll see our target hit to the pip. We can use as reference points current day high and low as support and resistance so price should consolidate between 1.0176-1.0130, a 46 pips trading range

orto leave comments
Avatar

USD/CAD Uptrend Losing His Steam

Daytrader21 Posted 15 June as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.0717, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Volatility #USD/CAD #Elliott Wave #Correction #Upward Channel
The current USD/CAD bullish trend is losing his momentum suggesting we have entered in a more prolonged type of correction especially since we have entered during the summer trading conditions, when volatility usually dry out and the market tend to stay in congestion.Also since mid 2012 USD/CAD has started trading inside an upward channel (see Figure 1)and current downward momentum suggest we're heading for a retest of lower border of the channel, where price should find some kind of support.
…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
Please, sign in or choose another language to translate from the list.

– or –

5 Comments
Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 22 June

Update 1: This strong breakout below 1.0800 round number and strong support level suggest that we should see further downside movement as there is not much support under way to stop this move for further falling. I only see the next support at around 1.0650 where I do expect the market to form a base from where to start the next big up leg and resume the bullish trend

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 7 July

Update 2: As per my previous update we indeed found support at the 1.0650 important pivot point which will provide the base for the next up swing leg. First we need a break and close above 1.0680 resistance zone before any upside movement to get traction.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 12 July

update 3: USD/CAD never look below 1.0600 as per my expectation and as we already see this base has indeed provided the support for the next rally. We broke tot he upside through several resistance levels and we already hit our target at 1.0717. However to to price structure price should not exccede 1.0760 where we should find some resistance and i'm looking for some retracement.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 19 July

Update 4: Last week the market was in a mere 100 pip consolidation zone, with 1.0700 being good resistance zone. It's good thing we're consolidating here as we're building the base for the next up leg. So far so good and the market is following my forecast. Next week prepeared for a break to the upside, as we already have put in place a major low

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 26 July

Update 5: We already gone 100 pips past my target so it may seems that my timing was wrong but the direction is proven to be still right

orto leave comments
More