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GBP/USD to slip further in the month ahead

al_dcdemo Publié 30 déc comme Analyse sur GBP/USD, Cible: 1.4725, Date: 1 de février, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Confluence #Resistance Zone #Big Figure #Corrective Rally #Declining Wedge #1 4750 Level #Tightening #E U Referendum
Monthly chart
Medium term downtrend has broken longer term trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally that followed ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 20 month SMA, 50 month SMA and 1.60 level acted as a strong resistance - the pair was unable to crack it and turned lower.
Weekly chart
Significance of the 1.5750 - 1.6000 resistance zone is strengthened as we add 100 and 20…
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al_dcdemo 11 jan

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Cable lost about 30 pips then turned around and shot up 70 pips before stalling again and returning back to unchanged.

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al_dcdemo 15 jan

UPDATE 6: Cable fell 450 pips since the beginning of the year and 900 since mid December. It broke 2015 low (~1.4565) and 1.45 big figure level and traded down to 1.4350 lows on Tuesday afternoon. It has been stabilizing around 1.44 since then but has been unable to rally past 1.4450 even after less dovish than expected BOE today. Support at 76.4% retracement of the 2009 to 2014 uptrend (~1.4370) remains firmly in place ahead of 2010 low (~1.4230). 1.45 level is the first stronger resistance to overcome, should the pair commence a retracement.

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al_dcdemo 18 jan

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 25 jan

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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al_dcdemo 27 jan

UPDATE 9: With a 100 pip up day, a daily range of almost 200 pips and the close near the high, Cable confirmed bullish bias that has been prevailing since the middle of the last week. China stocks tumbling aren't that important anymore with yuan stability and oil recovery supporting the risk-on mood. Last Friday's high was briefly violated before bulls took a pause. 1.4350 - 1.4375 is a strong level that includes highs from last week and lows from a week before. 1.44 shall see some resistance too ahead of stronger 1.4500 - 1.4525 area. Demand shall start coming in near 1.43.

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GBP/USD to continue to grind lower

al_dcdemo Publié 21 nov comme Analyse sur GBP/USD, Cible: 1.5125, Date: 1 de janvier, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Confluence #Range #Resistance Zone #Economic Data #Stop Run #Corrective Rally #Tightening Cycle
Monthly chart
Medium term downtrend has broken longer term trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally that followed ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 20 month SMA, 50 month SMA and 1.60 level remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up ahead of 100 and 200 month SMA.
Weekly chart
Strength of the reversal from the April low is more apparent on the weekly chart. Th…
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al_dcdemo 2 déc

UPDATE 5: Cable touched below 1.50 on Monday but bounced more than 130 pips from there before it turned back down. Weak Manufacturing and Construction PMI releases didn't help the pair which has been sold on most crosses. Today, 1.50 was properly busted and the low of the day was put in few pips below 1.49. The bounce ran out of steam just above 1.4950. Broken 1.50 level shall now act as a resistance, should the pair get there anytime soon. Some support is seen at April 21th low near 1.4850.

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al_dcdemo 9 déc

UPDATE 6: Cable staged an impressive rally on ECB day last week when it rallied more than 250 pips. It spent the last three days paring those gains. After a stop run below 1.50, the decline stopped and reversed in 1.4940 - 1.4960 support zone (Daily Wedge Bottom, 50's, Weeky Support 1). The pair is currently back above 1.50 level with more supply likely waiting near 1.5040 - 1.5060 (50's, Weekly Pivot Point, Daily Resistance 1, Previous Day High). 1.50 level appears to be a bull/bear line in sand at the moment.

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al_dcdemo 15 déc

UPDATE 7: Yesterday was a relatively volatile Monday for the Cable with the daily range of 120 pips. Today is shaping up to be of a sideways type but we'll see where the current USD buying will stall. 1.5130 - 1.5140 (Weekly Pivot Point, Low Of Day) is the immediate support ahead of 1.5080 - 1.5110 (Previous Day Low, 00's, Daily Support 1). Strong resistance 1.5180 - 1.5210 (Monthly Pivot Point, 00's, Daily Resistance 1) is followed by 1.5230 - 1.5250 (Previous Day High, 50 DMA, Previous Week High, 50's).

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al_dcdemo 28 déc

UPDATE 8: This week is probably the lightest one for the year with regard to economic data and certainly the most holiday-packed. Lower-tier U.K. data, released on Wednesday and Thursday, most likely won't produce any impact. U.S. will publish CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI, which may contribute to some volatility in these thin conditions.

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al_dcdemo 29 déc

UPDATE 9: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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GBP/USD to stay well supported

al_dcdemo Publié 31 oct comme Analyse sur GBP/USD, Cible: 1.5375, Date: 1 de décembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Confluence #Range #Resistance Zone #Economic Data #Stop Run #Corrective Rally #Tightening Cycle
Monthly chart
Medium term downtrend has broken longer term trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 50 week SMA, 20 week SMA and 1.60 level remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up ahead of 100 and 200 day SMA.
Weekly chart
The strength of the reversal from the April low is more apparent on the weekly chart. The pair travele…
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al_dcdemo 19 nov

UPDATE 4: FOMC meeting Minutes were published yesterday evening. There was nothing new in them but the market did seem to expect a bit more hawkishness. An absence of a clear signal that rates will go up in December was perhaps the main driver behind the broad dollar selling that followed the publication. Cable rose to as high as 1.5295 in the hours after the release. 1.5300 - 1.5340 band, which includes 50 and 200 DMA, is the first stronger resistance before the confluence of 100 DMA and the descending trendline drawn off of August and November highs. Initial support is seen near 1.5250.

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al_dcdemo 22 nov

UPDATE 5: Sterling lost some 40 pips against the dollar last week. Weekly range was worth a little less than two cents. Price action from Monday to Wednesday was mostly of a sideways type. On Thursday, the pair broke above the recent range (1.515 - 1.525) and rose a good cent before it was capped by 200 DMA. It reversed those gains on Friday as it returned back to the range.

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al_dcdemo 23 nov

UPDATE 6: U.K. will report its second estimate of GDP along with few other lower tier indicators. U.S. will publish several important data points: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. The pair is carving out a declining wedge pattern on a daily chart. Pattern support currently runs just below 1.50 while its resistance comes in near 1.54.

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al_dcdemo 27 nov

UPDATE 7: Pip-wise, the pair was the loser of the week among seven major currency pairs. It lost a little less than 150 pips while its range was a bit more than that. The pair fell from the opening levels and, after making three consecutive higher lows on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, it looked as though consolidation will extend into Friday. It didn't and the pair closed at the lowest level since April.

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al_dcdemo 29 nov

UPDATE 8: There will be plenty of data from the U.K. in the week ahead but the PMIs, Bank Stress Test Results and BOE Carney's speech will be in focus. U.S. macroeconomic data released next week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. Technically, the pair is flirting with the big 1.50 level. If it gives way, a stop run may extend to 1.4950 before any meaningful pullback.

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GBP/USD to stay around current levels

al_dcdemo Publié 25 sep comme Analyse sur GBP/USD, Cible: 1.5275, Date: 2 de novembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Confluence #Range #Resistance Zone #Economic Data #Stop Run #Corrective Rally #Tightening Cycle
Monthly chart:
Medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as the trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 50 week SMA and 1.60 level remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up.
Weekly chart:
The strength of the reversal from the April low is more apparent on the weekly chart. The pair tr…
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al_dcdemo 13 oct

UPDATE 5: Cable rallied in the morning and briefly touched above previous week high (1.5383) before it reversed to fall sharply ahead of inflation report. The report came out weak and suspicious price action before that suggests that it might have been leaked. Dovish comments from two BOE officials didn't help the pair either. It then fell all the way to 1.52, nearly 200 pips from the high of the day. It broke back below 200 DMA (1.5320) which shall now act as a resistance. We'll see what UK labour market report will bring tomorrow.

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al_dcdemo 17 oct

UPDATE 6: The pair was the second best performed of the week. Sterling gained a good cent against the dollar with weekly range of more than three cents. Main feature of weekly price action was a sharp reversal from inflation report induced dip. Decent labour market report (wage growth, lower unemployment rate) was enough to send the pair to 1.55 before it consolidated below the big figure.

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al_dcdemo 22 oct

UPDATE 7: Much better than expected September retail sales report (though accompanied by somewhat weaker revisions) just sent Cable to the top of the consolidation between 1.5410 and 1.5510. Confluence of 100 DMA, 1.55 big figure level and 76.4% retracement of the nine-day downswing have been capping the pair during the last six days, but this report may provide enough confidence to the market to at least clear stops above the resistance.

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al_dcdemo 23 oct

UPDATE 8: Even though BOE may end up hiking sooner rather than later and perhaps even before the Fed, the pair fell in the last two days. The decline is a consequence of weakness in the Euro, which fell on the back of very dovish ECB. 100 DMA, which currently runs near 1.55, held the topside well. 50 DMA was broken earlier today and the pair is trying to break below 200 DMA as I type.

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al_dcdemo 29 oct

UPDATE 9: At yesterday's FOMC meeting, Fed signaled that, all things being equal, they will hike in December. Most of the market expected them to maintain their recent neutrality and subsequent repricing sent the Euro nearly two cents lower. Cable fared somewhat better than that as it lost only three quarters of a cent. The pair is now trading below 200 DMA and, if US dollar strength continues, retest of October low (~1.51) and perhaps 1.50 will become quite likely. Confluence of 50 and 200 DMA near 1.5350 may prove to be a decent resistance in the near term.

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GBP/USD to remain well bid

al_dcdemo Publié 27 aou comme Analyse sur GBP/USD, Cible: 1.5725, Date: 1 de octobre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Confluence #Resistance Zone #Economic Data #200 Day Sma #Corrective Rally #Broadening Formation #Tightening Cycle
Monthly chart:
Medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as the trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 50 week SMA and 1.60 level remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up.
Weekly chart:
The strength of the reversal from the April low is more apparent on the weekly chart. The pair tr…
Lisez l'histoire complète
Traduire en Anglais Montrez l'original

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al_dcdemo 6 sep

UPDATE 4: Manufacturing Production and BOE meeting from UK; PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment from US will be the fundamental highlights in the week ahead. June low (1.5170) is the immediate support before May low (1.5089) and 1.50 big figure level. Should the pair bounce, initial resistance may be found at 1.5250 - 1.5275 (Friday high) and then stronger at 1.5325 - 1.5350 (July low, 200 DMA).

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al_dcdemo 11 sep

UPDATE 5: The theme of the week was the correction after nine-day decline in the previous two weeks. BOE held its second meeting in the new format and, despite recent worries and volatility in global markets, they weren't dovish and that lent the pair additional support as it retraced almost 50% of that downswing. Weekly range has been just over 300 pips and will likely stay that way, save for any fireworks in the US session.

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al_dcdemo 12 sep

UPDATE 6: Apart from eagerly awaited FOMC meeting, in which the Fed may begin to normalize their ultra easy monetary policy, there are three important risk events from the UK on the calendar for the next week: inflation, labour market and retail sales reports. 1.55 is the initial resistance before 1.5580 - 1.5600 (61.8% retracement, 00's) and 1.5675 - 1.5700 (76.4% retracement, 00's). 1.54 and then 1.5350 are the first two support levels.

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al_dcdemo 26 sep

UPDATE 7: BOE speakers (Cunliffe, Carney), lending data, current account, GDP (final revision) and Manufacturing PMI will be the main fundamental events from the UK in the week ahead. The US will report CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP figures. The pair broke September low (~1.5275) on Friday and, despite failure to close below it, that implies some further losses with the near term potential to 1.50.

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al_dcdemo 30 sep

UPDATE 8: Cable recorded nine consecutive days of losses in late August / early September. With eight losing days in a row, the pair is set to repeat the "feat". However, it has started the day pretty well and, unless US traders sell it below the day's opening price, that may mark a beginning of an upswing. Intraday support is seen between 1.5115 and 1.5135 (Previous Week Low, Low Of Day, Previous Day Low, Daily Support 1) and resistance at 1.5185 - 1.5205 (High Of Day, Daily Resistance 1, H1 100 SMA, 00's, Previous Day High).

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