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タグ・フィルター:  Descending Channel
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USD/JPY is bearish

mrlfx 投稿日: 2017年06月14日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/JPY, 予想レート: 110.04, 予想日: 1日8月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Forecast #USD/JPY #Support/resistance #Descending Channel #Elliot Waves
USD/JPY is bearish and moving inside a descending channel. The pair is probably tracing the wave 5 of the 5 emotive elliot waves.
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NZD/USD is bearish

mrlfx 投稿日: 2017年06月14日。分析予想通貨ペア:NZD/USD, 予想レート: 0.6904, 予想日: 1日8月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Forecast #NZD/USD #Support/resistance #Descending Channel #Elliot Waves
NZD/USD is bearish and moving inside a descending channel. The pair is at the start of the wave 5 of the 5 emotive elliot waves.
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Still bearish on this pair

marius24 投稿日: 2015年12月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/JPY, 予想レート: 128.82, 予想日: 1日2月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/JPY #Boj #Draghi #Descending Channel #Double Top #Triple Top
Currency Pair:Eur/Jpy
Indicators: technical patterns
Current price (12.31.2015) : 130.62
Trend: downtrend (daily)
Possible trading range:127-133
Technical analysis: The pair is still in a bearish mode as long as the bulls failed in keeping the price higher than 134 after Draghi disappointed badly the market expectations this month. At play is the same triple top situated on the daily chart targeting in the first phase the 127 level.
Forecast: A strong bearish sign is the fact that the bulls didn…
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marius24 2016年01月19日

update ( current price: 128.37). The downside for the usd/Jpy look set to bottom up at least for the moment as the turmoil in stocks markets around the world has somehow subsided a little bit on the expectations that the chinese will add more stimulus to avoid further declines in the stocks market. On the other side the eur/usd seems to be stuck in a tight trading range. More sideways movements with a slightly bullish tilt are expected in this pair in the coming days.

marius24 avatar
marius24 2016年01月26日

update( current price: 128.65). On the chart side it seems to have a bullish breakout from an inverse H&S pattern situated on the h1 time frame. THis breakout occurred around 128.50 and in order to see a sustain rally we need a risk on mode in global stock markets and of course a stable euro with a slight bullish tilt. The outlook looks indeed slightly bullish but i will remain cautious with a more balanced view regarding this currency pair at this moment. I am neutral from this point.

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Neutral outlook for the pound

marius24 投稿日: 2015年12月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:GBP/USD, 予想レート: 1.4907, 予想日: 1日2月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Head And Shoulders Pattern #Descending Channel #Consolidation Zone
Currency Pair:Gbp/Usd
Indicators: technical patterns
Current price (12.31.2015) : 1.4748
Trend: downtrend(daily)
Possible trading range:1.46-1.51
Technical analysis: the daily chart is dominated by a massive head and shoulders pattern with its neckline broken to the downside at around 1.5161. This pattern seems to running out of steam as an important support is just 180 pips lower.
Forecast: Based on the above analysis i expect more bullish force emerging below the 1.47 handle, but the actual do…
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A pause in the downtrend is in the sight

marius24 投稿日: 2015年07月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:NZD/USD, 予想レート: 0.6764, 予想日: 1日9月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #China #Fed #NZD/USD #Descending Channel #Bullish Breakout #Hawkish
Currency Pair:Nzd/Usd
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 0.6620
Trend:downtrend
Possible trading range:0.64-0.70
Signals: a bullish breakout from a descending channel located on the daily chart
Fundamentals: Chinese stocks market may put further downward pressure on the kiwi. The FED is a little bit hawkish and NZ's data are still disappointing.
Forecast: Next month i anticipate a heavy battle between bears and bulls around 0.66 and 0.67. Anyway due to th…
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marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年08月10日

update: no major changes have occured since i put this prediction. The pair is set to spend more time between 0.6498 and 0.6746 before a clear direction to emerge. Personally i am cautiously bullish with tight stop losses.

marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年08月19日

update: the Global Dairy trade INdex showed an increase of 14.8%  which is very good news for this pair. Another positive sign came from Russia who canceled the ban imposed for NZ dairy products. That being said i expect a bullish scenario  in the coming days.

marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年08月19日

current price - 0.6579

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First signs of bottoming out?

marius24 投稿日: 2015年07月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:AUD/USD, 予想レート: 0.7462, 予想日: 1日9月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #AUD/USD #Double Bottom #Descending Channel #Chinese Stocks Market Rout
Currency Pair:Aud/Usd
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 0.7305
Trend:downtrend
Possible trading range:0.72-0.76
Signals: The aussie has been in a steady decline since August last year forming all this time a big descending channel situated on the weekly chart. On the same time frame the price seems to encounter the first support around 0.72-0.73 in the presence of a technical pattern called double bottom which dates from the 2008 financial rout.
Funda…
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marius24 2015年08月10日

update: on the 1 hour chart an inverted H&S pattern (neckline 0.7350) has managed to push the price a little higher around 0.7428. It's quite clear that a strong battle is taking place between sellers and buyers at this stage. It's very likely to see more upside moves untill 0.7550. Anyway we need more consolidation in order to hope for a future clear direction either side.

marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年08月19日

update: the aussie has preferred to stay in a tight range between 0.72 and 0.74. A bullish signal may come from a hammer candlestick appeared on the daily chart and that the RBA stopped talking down its currency mainly on the back of improving labour market. Current price: 0.7338

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Further room for sideways moves

marius24 投稿日: 2015年07月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:GBP/USD, 予想レート: 1.5467, 予想日: 1日9月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Boe #GBP/USD #Fed #Head And Shoulders #Descending Channel #Hawkish Comments
Currency Pair:Gbp/Usd
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 1.5613
Trend:consolidation
Possible trading range:1.51-1.60
Signals: This currency pair has managed to escape from a massive descending channel located on the daily chart. Besides, another bullish pattern called inverted H&S encouraged the bulls to embark in an upside trip, but unfortunately for them the bears put a great resistance around 1.59 where another head and shoulders pattern dominates the …
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marius24 2015年08月10日

not so hawkish comments coming out of the latest BOE conference stopped the bulls from adding more bullish bets on this pair. A clear downside breakout below 1.5450 opens the door for further declines towards 1.5330

marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年08月19日

update: so far we had a good catalyst in order to say bye bye to that consolidation area between 1.5450 and 1.57. It's about CPI which surprised analysts to the upside and increased expectations for a rate hike sooner than 2016 Q2. Let's wait the FED which is due to deliver tonight it's minutes meeting. A dovish outcome will help this pair to jump. Current price - 1.5664

marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年08月27日

update: in just two days Gbp/Usd has suffered a heavy correction of 300 pips after having plunged from 1.5777 close to my target situated at 1.5467. A stabilisation in the stocks markets has stopped the flow into the pound and the fundamentals are once again on the table. From here the outlook is leaning towards a consolidation with a bullish bias. Current price 1.5480

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Sideways with bullish tilt

marius24 投稿日: 2015年03月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/GBP, 予想レート: 0.7241, 予想日: 1日5月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/GBP #Psychological Level #Descending Channel #Low Inflation
Currency Pair:Eur/Gbp
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 0.7243
Trend:downtrend
Possible trading range:0.70 - 0.75
Signals: A descending channel broken to the upside + a psychological level ( 0.70) might suggest that a bottom is on the table
Fundamentals: Any rate rise still looks to be some way off as long as there are real concerns that further rise in the pound could raise the risk of a prolonged period of very low inflation. ON the other side it seems…
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marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年04月16日

update: Current price - 0.7166. THat double top pattern mentioned by my last time has been broken to the downside around 0.7220 and it appears to target a much lower level at 0.71. The bond yield differential is the main cause of the current fall in this pair

marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年04月19日

update: Current price- 0.7228. The price simply stopped from falling being very well supported around 0.7163. Anyway as long as the rate stays below that neckline spoken by me in the last update the outlook remains bearish. ON the 1 hour chart a bullish pattern which appears to be more a triple bottom than an inverted H&S may cancel any declines if we see a breakout higher above 0.7230

marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年04月27日

update: Current price - 0.7156. The price continued to fall until 0.7115 and then some bulls appeared out of nowhere. Further dismal figures in US data have triggered a new round of throwing the dollar in the favour of Euro and pound. The technicals here remains bearish as long as we are below 0.7220, a level which represents the neckline of a massive double top situated on the 4 hour chart.

marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年04月28日

update; Current price - 0.7160. ON the hourly chart an inverted head and shoulders has just appeared having its neckline around 0.7170. In case this resistance falls apart then there are big chances to see once again 0.72 zone. The fundamental seems tilted towards an upside move as Greece appears to end the deadlock. SO far there are only hopes. I remain bullish on this currency pair, but cautiously

marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年04月29日

update: Current price - 0.7205. THe price has been driven higher on the back of slump in US GDP data which may push further the timing of the first rate hike. ANyway the FED has just said that the US economy has been slowed down by transatory factors. As long as the price stays below 0.7220 the bears are in the control.

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Consolidation with bullish bias

marius24 投稿日: 2015年03月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:GBP/USD, 予想レート: 1.5225, 予想日: 1日5月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Boe #GBP/USD #Descending Channel #Hawkish
Currency Pair:Gbp/Usd
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 1.4846
Trend:downtrend
Possible trading range:1.46 - 1.55
Signals: The first bullish attempt was a golden cross appeared on the 4 hour chart. Another bullish attempt was the false bullish breakout from that impressive descending channel situated on the daily chart. An inverted head and shoulders pattern appears to be underway in the following period.
Fundamentals: The recent pickup in wage inflation…
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marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年04月19日

update: Current price - 1.4964. It seems that the bulls forget entirely the upcoming May elections and delivered another leg higher above my expectations as high as 1.5051. From this point it's quite likely to see further upside moves amid worries that a stronger dollar may slow down a fragile recovery in the US.

marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年04月27日

update: current price - 1.5257. THe pound simply didn't care anymore of May elections and rallied further. The price has just surpassed a very important fibo level of 61.8 ( 1.5547- 1.4567) and right now the bulls seems to target another important level situated at 1.5345. The short term outlook remains tilted towards additional upside moves, but a consolidation from this level is more likely to occur.

marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年04月28日

update: current price - 1.5320. THe price continued to rally despite dismal GDP data released today. The blame can be put on the dollar which is largely driven downward by dissapointing data which ultimately may delay further the timing of the first rate hike. Now all eyes are on FOMC Statement. A dovish ooutcome will encourage the bulls to push the price even higher.

marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年05月01日

update: current price - 1.5282. After a higher leg recorded this morning the Manufacturing PMI reading encouraged the bears to take control over the pairand dragged down the rate as low as 1.5278. On the hourly chart a double top has recently been broken to the downside around 1.53. THe outlook is very bearish.

marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年05月01日

update: the price has stopped at 1.5271 with 46 pips higher than my target situated at 1.5225. In relative terms this deviation means 30%. All in all is not as bad as it looks. I am pleased with my forecast taking into account that i had only two forecasts for 1st of May

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Bearish on this pair

marius24 投稿日: 2015年02月27日。分析予想通貨ペア:AUD/NZD, 予想レート: 1.0275, 予想日: 1日4月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/NZD #Rba #Head And Shoulders #Descending Channel
Currency Pair:Aud/Nzd
Indicators: technical patterns and Sma50(red)+ Sma200 (blue)
Current price: 1.0341
Trend:downtrend
Possible trading range:1.015-1.06
Signals: On the weekly chart the pair lies in a well defined descending channel with no escape routes in the sight. On the monthly chart a bearish signal comes after a very old head and shoulders pattern has been broken to the downside at around 1.06.
Fundamentals: The temporary rebound in commodity prices gives a ray of hope for NZ's economy.…
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marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年03月10日

update:Current price - 1.0506. There are no visible and very well defined technical patterns in order to figure out the next movement in this pair. I am still short on Aud/Nzd because there are increasingly more and more calls for parity.

marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年03月17日

update: Current price - 1.0411.  A recent fall in dairy prices has helped the bulls to push the price from 1.0326. On the aussie side there are more analysts who expect at least a rate cut from RBA. The kiwi looks slightly in a better shape. The outlook for this pair remains more inclined to the downside.

marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年03月24日

update: Current price - 1.0306. THe pair has established a new record low of 1.0210 for the first time and it seems that the parity is a certain call in the very short period. The outlook remains bearish as long as the kiwi is doing much better than its counterpart.

marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年03月31日

update: Current price - 1.0180. I was quite surpised by the latest decline in the aussie, but i think further decreases from this point are less likely in the very short period. On the 1 hour chart if price manages to make a leg higher towards 1.0218 than a double bottom will come to life.

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