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EURGBP still bullish aiming 0.9200-0.9300

General outlook for the pair:
  • The pair moved in the last weeks between 0.8850 and 0.9050.
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GBP was the best performer last week, GDP m/m +0.3% VS +0.2% expected, Manufacturing Production m/m -0.2% VS +0.2% expected, Average Earnings Index 3m/y +2.6% VS +2.4% expected, Claimant Count Change +8.7K VS +6.9K expected, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 9 from 9 wanted rate to stay at +0.75%, next week focus will be on CB Leading Index m/m, MPC Member Haldane Speaks, CPI y/y and Retail Sales m/m.

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Pair got far from critical 0.9000, bears seemed in control but lack of momentum...

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EUR performed well last week, Final CPI y/y came at 2.0% as expected, EU Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.3 VS 54.4 expected, EU Flash Services PMI 54.7 VS 54.5 expected, next week focus will be on German Ifo Business Climate, German Prelim CPI m/m, M3 Money Supply y/y and CPI Flash Estimate y/y.

in other hand,

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GBP was the worst performer last week, CB Leading Index m/m -0.2% as last reading, CPI y/y +2.7% VS +2.4% expected, Retail Sales m/m +0.3% VS -0.2% expected, Public Sector Net Borrowing 5.9B VS 2.9B expected, next week focus will be on any Brexit news, GfK Consumer Confidence, Current Account and Final GDP q/q.

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As expected 0.8840 still strong support, pair jumped to 0.8980 and still have momentum to move above 0.9000.

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EURGBP to close around 0.9000 next month

General outlook for the pair:
  • The pair moved in the last weeks between 0.8800 and 0.8950.
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GBP Still affected by NO deal with EU, GBP performed so worst VS majors...

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Pair finally close above 0.9000, pair expected to resume last uptrend... next week critical for bulls.

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EUR peformed mixed VS majors last week, German Ifo Business Climate 103.8 Vs 101.9 expected, German Prelim CPI m/m +0.1% as expected, German Retail Sales m/m -0.4% VS -0.1% expected and CPI Flash Estimate y/y 2.0% VS 2.1% expected, next week focus will be on German Buba President Weidmann Speaks and several Manufacturing and Services PMIS, in other hand,

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GBP performed very well last week, M4 Money Supply m/m +0.9% VS +0.2%, Net Lending to Individuals m/m +4.0B VS +5.4B expected and GfK Consumer Confidence -7.0 VS -10 expected, next week focus will be on Manufacturing PMI, Inflation Report Hearings and Services PMI.

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Failed again below 0.9000, strong warning sign for bulls, let's see what happened next week.

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EURGBP to fall to 0.8500 in next month

General outlook for the pair:
  • The pair moved in the last weeks between 0.8840 and 0.8700.
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Pair close above 0.8800 for second week is not joke, pair may resume up move next week.

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EUR performed well last week, Sentix Investor Confidence 12.1 VS 9.0 expected, German ZEW Economic Sentiment -24.7 VS -17.9 expected, next week focus will be on Trade Balance and Final CPI y/y, in other hand, GBP performed so well last week,GDP m/m at +0.3% (first reading), Manufacturing Production m/m +0.4% VS +1.0% expected, Goods Trade Balance -12.4B VS -11.9B expected, next week focus will be on Average Earnings Index 3m/y, Claimant Count Change, CPI y/y and Retail Sales m/m.

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Still above 0.8800, still bullish and only clear break below can dampen current bullish scenario.

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EUR performed well but in narrow pace last week, Trade Balance +16.9B VS 17.6B, Final CPI y/y +2.0% as expected, German PPI m/m +0.3% as expected, next week focus will be on Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI, German Ifo Business Climate, M3 Money Supply y/y and ECB Rate and Conference, in other hand, GBP performed the worst last week, Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.5% as expected, Unemployment Rate 4.2% as expected, CPI y/y 2.4% VS 2.6% expected, Retail Sales m/m -0.5% VS +0.1% expected, next week focus will be mostly on Brexit news.

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As expected pair jumped above 0.8900, still bullish.

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EURGBP bearish aiming 0.8500

General outlook for the pair:
  • The pair moved in the last weeks between 0.8700 and 0.8850.
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Topped again around 0.8830 and felt to 0.8700 which hold till now, this week critical for bulls.

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EUR performed well last week, EU Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.0 as expected, EU Flash Services PMI 55.0 VS 53.7 expected, next week focus will be on German Ifo Business Climate, M3 Money Supply y/y and EU CPI Flash Estimate y/y, in other hand, GBP performed mixed VS majors last week, Official Bank Rate +0.5 as expected, but 3 of MPS wanted to raise rates VS 2 expected, Public Sector Net Borrowing 3.4B VS 5.1B, next week focus will be on Current Account and Final GDP q/q.

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Still in the boring range between 0.8700 and 0.8800, no clear direction.

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EUR performed well last week, German Ifo Business Climate 101.8 VS 101.9 expected, M3 Money Supply y/y 4.0% VS 3.8% expected, German Prelim CPI m/m +0.1% VS +0.2% expected, EU Economic Summit reached to immigration deal, next week focus will be on EU Manufacturing PMIS and Final Services PMI, in other hand, GBP performed worst last week, Current Account -17.7B VS -18.0B expected, Final GDP q/q +0.2% VS +0.1% expected, next week focus will be on Manufacturing PMI, Construction PMI and Services PMI.

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Pair closed above 0.8800 for first time in 3 months, there some bullish momentum we should take care from.

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EURGBP bearish aiming 0.8500 and below

General outlook for the pair:
  • The pair moved in the last weeks between 0.8800 and 0.8600.
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Pair closed day and week around top, still bullish and only close below 0.8800 open the door for bears again.

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EUR did not perform well last week but erased most of week losses, Sentix Investor Confidence came at 19.2 VS 21.2 expected, German Industrial Production m/m came at 1.0% VS 0.8%, next week will be on German Prelim GDP q/q, Flash GDP q/q and German ZEW Economic Sentiment, in other hand, GBP did not perform well last week, Manufacturing Production m/m came at -0.1% VS -0.2%, Goods Trade Balance came at -12.3B VS -11.2B, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes still at 2-7 with no majority to rise rates up, next week focus will be on Average Earnings Index 3m/y and Inflation Report Hearings.

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Up and down around 0.8800 with no clear direction.

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EUR performed worst last week as German Prelim GDP q/q at 0.3% VS 0.4%, German ZEW Economic Sentiment came at -8.2 VS -8.0 expected, next week all focus will be on Manufacturing ans services PMIS in EU and also release of ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, in other hand, GBP stabilized last week after weeks of losses, Average Earnings Index came at 2.6% VS 2.7% expected, Claimant Count Change came at 31.2K VS 13.3K expected, but GBP stabilize after hope of Brexit deal, next week all focus will be on, Inflation Report Hearings, CPI, Second Estimate GDP q/q and BOE Gov Carney Speech.

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up and down with no clear direction but EUR fall may help pair to get target.

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EURGBP bearish below 0.9000

General outlook for the pair:
  • The pair moved in the last weeks between 0.8970 and 0.8650.
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EUR performed well last week, most EU data was softer last week, German ZEW came at -8.2 VS -0.8 expected, Final CPI at 1.3% VS 1.4% expected, next week focus will be on ECB meeting and press conference but be careful from PMIS data at week beginning, in other hand, GBP performed the worst last week, as UK data disappointed a lot, Average earning felt to 2.8% from 3.0% expected, CPI felt to 2.5% from 2.7% expected, retail sales felt -1.2% from -0.5% expected, MPC Gov disappointed GBP as he doubts about further rate hikes, Next week Prelim GDP will be in focus.

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0.8600 area was so impressive as it turned pair sentiment from strong bearish to bullish, 0.6800-0.8700 will be critical next week.

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EUR performed worst last week, PMIS data ere mixed but positive in general, German IFO was 102.1 VS 102.7 expected, but really EUR disappointed from ECB conference which gave no hint about next ECB step or details about next ECB plan, next week focus will be on German CPI and EU GDP, in other hand,

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GBP was the worst last week as it got a hit from so low GDP q/q which came at 0.1% VS 0.3% expected and last quarter reading revised lower to 0.4% with last 0.5%, this drop on GDP figures seemed to freeze next BOE rate hike, next week focus will be on Manufacturing PMI, Construction PMI and Services PMI.

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Pair closed week and day near top around 0.8800, 0.8840-0.8850 should not be broken if bears still in control.

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EURGBP bearish below 0.9000

General outlook for the pair:
  • The pair moved in the last weeks between 0.8900 and 0.8650.
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EUR performed bad last week after ECB meeting as take profits happened for most majors VS EUR, EU Final Services PMI came at 56.2 VS 56.7, ECB seen still caution and this still put pressure on EUR movement, in other hand, GBP performed well after strong losses of last week, Services PMI came at 54.5 strong than 53.3 expected, Manufacturing production +01% VS +0.2%, next week annual budget release will be the most important for GBP.

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Failed again below 0.9000, now seen mild negative below 0.8900, 0.8700 in the way.

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EUR performed mixed VS majors,  ECB Draghi did not give any new hint, CPI data still not encouraging as Final CPI Y/Y 1.1% VS 1.2% expected, next week EU PMI data and Germany ZEW indicator will be  the most effected EU news, in other hand, GBP performed well VS majors with no significant data last week, next week will be so important with CPI data Employment real earning data and next Thursday MPC official bank rate will be so important and any hint will be big mover for GBP.

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Pair closed day and week at lowest level near 0.8800, closed bearish for second week, still seen bearish in the coming days.

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After strong sell off, pair found buyers around 0.8650, now holds at 0.8750, still expected to find sellers around 0.8800

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EURGBP bearish aiming 0.8500 and below

General outlook for the pair:
  • The pair moved in the last weeks between 0.9000 and 0.8700.
  • The pair is expected to move in the next month between 0.8800 and 0.8300 as it faces clusters of daily/weekly tops and bottoms.

Pair recent direction : Range

Expected rate of the pair 1st of March, 12:00 GMT:
0.8530
Expected market sentiment: Bearish

Chart of major support (S) and resistance (R):


Weekly chart

Chart of expected scenario:

Daily chart
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EUR performed well last week as EU data still help, German GDP still surge at +0.6%, EU flash GDP still at highest level at +0.6%, Trade balance still at highest levels and higher Eu still not affecting trade balance numbers, In other hand, GBP performed week especially after better than expected CPI which came at +3.0% VS 2.9% and this still expected to put pressure on BOE to hike rate again at MAY meeting.

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Non sense without direction around 0.8800, nothing clear.

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EUR tried to holds last week gains but EU flash manufacturing and services failed to keep Eur strong as most data came below expectation, also no surprise from final EU CPI data which came at 1.3% as expected filed to fuel EUR. Next week, just take care of last month Germany and EU CPI which will mostly affect EUR, in other hand, GPB performance last week was mixed as claimant count change came at -7.2K better than 2.3K expected but unemployment rise to 4.4% from 4.3% expected, GDP estimate decreased to 0.4% from 0.5% expected

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but next about EU-UK agreement and May’s speech next Friday gave life for GBP at last hours of the week.

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still stuck in boring range around 0.8800 wit no clear direction.

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EURGBP bearish below 0.9000 aiming 0.8500

General outlook for the pair:
  • The pair moved in the last weeks between 0.8700 and 0.9000.
  • The pair is expected to move in the next month between 0.9000 and 0.8400 as it faces clusters of daily/weekly tops and bottoms.

Pair recent direction : Range

Expected rate of the pair 1st of February, 12:00 GMT:
0.8564
Expected market sentiment: Bearish

Chart of major support (S) and resistance (R):


Weekly chart

Chart of expected scenario:

Daily chart
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khalidamassi avatar

Euro performed very well last week as more good data came from EU economy, more strong EU data and finally Grand coalitions in Germany, Germany looked to work with Macron France to strengthen euro zone economy and reforms, all of this send euro to highest level in 3years, In other hand, GBP pushed up to highest level since “referendum day” after news that Netherlands and Spain agreed to make UK exit from EU as smooth as can and this means soft Brexit and this pushed GBP for higher rates,

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Due to GBP and EUR advance against USD, EURGBP moved in narrow range as the last of 3 weeks.

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Euro performed mixed as more good data came from EU economy, more strong EU data but no clear Grand coalitions in Germany as there is opposition in SPD party which is expected to make final decision on Sunday 21/01, Germany Merkel fate at the decision of SPD, Euro will be affected, In other hand, GBP pushed up to highest level since “referendum day” as Macron (France) and May (UK) coordinated to make smooth Brexit dear for UK, all of this means soft Brexit which help GBP versus all majors.

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Pair closed the week at lowest level in month, as GBP outperform Euro then more losses ahead foe pair in the near time.

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Pair sentiment is bearish but needs some time to aghieve target...

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EURGBP bearish aiming 0.8500 at least

General outlook for the pair:
  • The pair moved in the last weeks between 0.8700 and 0.9000.
  • The pair is expected to move in the next month between 0.9000 and 0.8400 as it faces clusters of daily/weekly tops and bottoms.

Pair recent direction : range

Expected rate of the pair 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT:
0.8565
Expected market sentiment: Bearish

Chart of major support (S) and resistance (R):


Weekly chart

Chart of expected scenario:

Daily chart
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0.8800 played a rule of resistance, but pair found demand at 0.8700, but still expected to be broken in the near term as GBP strength mount.

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Euro hold steady last week after some improvement of ECB projections, EU data still so solid, In other hand,GBP got a boost after news of Brexit process development but May’s problems and lack of confidence make the next steps so hard and this affect GBP aggressively.

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Pair play up and down in tight range around 0.8800, pair should vlerly break above 0.8850 to accelerate gains, below 0.8800 it is still in the way to 0.8600 and below.

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Euro performed well last week as more good data came from EU economy, Catalonia Vote did not affect euro so much, ECB speakers spoke loudly last week at QE end after the last 9 month extension, In other hand, GBP lost ground as more complicated details to come soon after partial success in UK deal with EU, GBP still not benefited from May’s weak situation in Government.

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Pair closed again above 0.8830 and now holds at 0.8870 and this good sign for bulls to fight 0.9000 again.

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