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EUR/NZD WXY Pattern

Based on Elliott Wave analysis EUR/NZD is playing inside a very complex price structure and corrective in nature. Since 2014 top at around 1.6400 we have been moving inside an WXY pattern which can be subdivided in lower degree WXY patterns. Right now we're in the last stage of completing the pattern as we're currently developing wave Y of higher degree and wave y of Y before the cycle to be completed. Before the last leg up we need a retracement towards at least 38.2 Fibonacci
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Update 1: EUR/NZD has made a new intraday marginal high above 1.5300 however the market is not ready for prime time, we should see that pull-back towards the 38.2 fib retracement before to make the new up leg

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Update 2: Right now we have made the temporary top and the market is looking for retracement towards the 38.2 fib level around the 1.4800 level which is also a pivot point. Next week we should be looking for further downside move as per my prediction

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Update 3: This Friday we finally managed to break above previous minor swing high at around the 1.5400 level. If we manage to get a weekly close above this key level than the next level that comes into play is the 1.5600 level which is near my forecast target as well. Support level for next week comes in at 1.5350

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Update 4: Unfortunately we broke towards new high above key resistance level and big round number 1.6000. We need to find resistance at 1.6200 which is the last level of invalidation, if this gives up my analysis may be wrong and we're heading much more higher.

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Qick Review of My Trades

First trade I took this month was on turkish lira, I went short USD/TRY you can find more about the reasons behind this trade in my previous post: Emerging Markets, Follow the Hot Money.
Second trade I took was on the Canadian Dollar, actually I was both short and long on this pair. USD/CAD has recently started to break in a very aggressive bullish trend. I've been forecasting this trend in the Canadian Dollar since last year you can find here a quick review of my Technical Analysis on the USD/C…
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NZD Dollar Crosses

Today I want to take my time and give a full explanation for my last, two profitable trades, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD. I took a long position in both of this pairs, Wednesday 18 December, in the morning before the Fed taper decision. For me this trade was more a kind of "synthetic" (not per se) trade. I was expecting NZD dollar to weaken and therefore I was looking in the crosses to maximize my profits as I knew they will be moving much more than NZD/USD.
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Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 24 Dec.

Yep you aced this one. Is preety hard to get a profitable trade on gbpnzd. It's volatility is a bless but it's spread a curse and might just came back and bite your account.

HOANG_MAI_NHI avatar

good job

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