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EUR/SEK Sticks Within Its Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.6445, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SEK #Ecb #Europe #EUR/SEK #Range Bound #Single Currency #Swedish Krona #Trump #Us Elections
The EUR/SEK is still within its long-term range (See chart below). Aside from a brief excursion during the Trump election, the rest of the time the pair is all contained.
On the lower time-frames we see a similar picture. Look at the 4 Hour chart below and all those zig-zags. Prices has been moving aimlessly this month, struggling to find direction.
With both charts saying more of the same (range) I'm inclined to bet on prices staying near the current market price of 9.6445.
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Another Range-Bound Month for the Euro

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0654, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #USD #Ecb #EUR/USD #Us Dollar #Greenback #Range Bound #Single Currency #Congestion
The Euro had another range-bound month. We opened March at 1.0576, first traded to a low of 1.0494, then to a high of 1.0906, only to fall back down to 1.0654 today.
The chart above shows this volatile but ultimately indecisive market movement. On our second chart below we can see that this range-bound movement has been happening for the past few months, not just one month. The large rectangle on this chart shows March while the smaller ones show important turning points in the market.
Notice ho…
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Years Long Congestion Persists in EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.3054, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Ecb #Support #Resistance #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Congestion #Polish Zloty
The +5 years long congestion in the EUR/PLN continues. Since the start of 2011 this pair has moved without a clear trend or direction. We opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.3024. That's just above 3 percent, negligible for several years of trading.
On the lower time-frame chart below we can see that the situation looks very similar. There's lack of clear direction with prices swinging back and forth.
This just underscores how range-bound this pair has become. Becaue of this I'…
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fxsurprise8 27 Mar.

UPDATE 1: The mostly range-bound market continues in the EUR/PLN. We opened March at 4.3024, the high this month was at 4.3527 while the low is at 4.2386.

The good news is that we're now nearing some important support at around 4.2200, last year's low for this trading pair. A bounce here is likely.

We are now only 1.4% away from my forecasted price, a distance that can be overcome within several trading sessions.

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Turkish Lira Still in Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.3956, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Ecb #Turkey #EUR/TRY #Triangle Pattern #Try #Range Bound #Turkish Lira #Congestion
We'll do a two-part analysis on the EUR/TRY. First let's take a look at the long-term picture. On the chart below we can see that this pair has been stuck in a giant triangle pattern for the past 15 months. We've seen some retests of the top of the pattern in the past month but so far the formation is holding up.
Now let's take a look at a lower time-frame. The chart below shows the EUR/TRY on a daily chart. Notice how we're trading barely higher then where we were back in July of this year. Yes…
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EUR/USD to Continue Directionless Trading

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1155, Date: 3rd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #USD #Ecb #EUR/USD #Fomc #Range #Range Box #Brexit #Directionless
The EUR/USD has been moving with no clear direction since May of this year. Look at the chart below. That large red bar shows Brexit day. We're now quoted at 1.1155, less then 10 pips away from the 50% retracement of that large move. That underscores how range-bound this pair has been in the past few months.
But things aren't looking great on the higher timeframes either. Notice how since about March of 2015 the Euro has been stuck in a relatively large range, marked with a rectangle on the char…
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fxsurprise8 29 Sep.

We're still trading inside the large rectangle show in picture two above. The total monthly range is only 204 pips or 1.8 percent.

So far my forecast has been stop on. Every rally is being use by sellers to unload more Euro and every drop is being used to buy on the cheap.

Take today for example. First we fell to a low of 1.1196. Then we rallied to a daily high of 1.1249 and we're now back down near the 1.1200 figure. The directionless trading in the EUR/USD continues.

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fxsurprise8 30 Sep.

More of the same for the Euro as we get yet another directionless trading day. Today we opened at 1.1221, fell to a low of 1.1153 around mid-day, only to rally hard later on some Deutsche Bank speculation.

A high of 1.1250 was hit, soon followed by a retracement. We're currently quoted at 1.1234, only 13 pips away from the daily open. The range-bound scenario outlined in my original post continues. The EUR/USD looks set for another monthly inside bar.

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fxsurprise8 3 Oct.

Time for another update! The past few days brought lot of volatility but no decisive movement. During all of the commotion a low of 1.1153 was hit, overshooting my target by only 2 pips. But this move was quickly reversed by a sharp rally higher to 1.1250. We are currently quoted just below the highs at 1.1230.

The sharp bounce right at the 1.1150s area confirms the validity of the level that I picked as a target. But with Germany celebrating Unity Day tomorrow, things could be slower then usual. This doesn't bode well for forecast because I'm still 75 pips away from my forecasted price.

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The EUR/JPY Could Have Hard Time Breaking 115

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 June as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 114.534, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Ecb #Euro #EUR/JPY #Rally #Japanese Yen #JPY Crosses #Brexit
The EUR/JPY could have a hard time breaking the 115 round figure. Prices are already up over 500 pips from the 109.48 lows. But perhaps more important, we've yet to reclaim the 50% retracement level. This was easily done in the USD/JPY for example. To me this signals that the Euro woes will continue to weigh on this pair.
The Brexit could lead to more ECB easing as well as calls for referendums in other EU nations. This will be an ongoing problem that the USD for example doesn't have. But I'm no…
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fxsurprise8 1 Aug.

So far so good. The pair spent most of July in a range between 118.50 and 110.82. Granted the highs were a bit higher then I thought but the market will always aim for the extreme.

The unexpected market frenzy regarding 'helicopter money' took Yen pairs way beyond fundamentals this month. Eventually the BOJ poured cold water on the fantasy and we saw the EUR/JPY come crashing down near the end of the month.

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fxsurprise8 1 Aug.

With only few hours to go, we're currently quoted at 114.13, about 40 pips below my forecasted price. Considering that today we saw the pair trade as high as 114.72 in Asia, there's still hope for a closer result.

Overall it wasn't a bad forecast. My main expectations was for some range-bound trading post-Brexit. This was generally correct. Even though volatility was much higher then expected, prices kept reverting back to the mean around 114.50 Euros per Yen.

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fxsurprise8 1 Aug.

The pair closed the contest period at 114.065, 46.9 pips away from my forecast. In percentage terms this is around 0.41%. This should be enough to score a winning position but probably not at the top.

Today went similarly to how the entire previous month did, lots of volatility with little to show for it. The daily high stands at 114.73 while the low is at 113.92. From open to the mid-day price at 12:00 however, the range was only 17 pips.

Market participants are trying to outsmart each other but with the summer in full swing and the BOJ behind us, trends are bound to be short-lived here.

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EUR/PLN Range-bound for 5 Years Now

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 June as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.3756, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #PLN #Ecb #Range #EUR/PLN #Range Bound #Polish Zloty #Brexit
The EUR/PLN continues its range-bound trading. On the daily chart below we can see no clear trends. This year's high was achieved at 4.5324 on Brexit day but the Euro gains were quickly reversed.
But things are not looking better on the long-term charts either. Notice the clear lack of trends on the weekly chart below. For example we opened 2012 at 4.4464 and we're currently quoted at 4.3743, only 1.5 percent lower. That's practically nothing for a time-span of 5 years. Thus it makes sense to be…
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fxsurprise8 1 Aug.

The range-bound movement in this pair continues. During July we had a range of just below 2.5 percent, fairly low even for currencies.

The high made was 4.4562 while the low was 4.3411. Both of these points are well within the yearly bounds at 4.5324 and 4.2262. The 5-year long range for the EUR/PLN continues unabated. 

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fxsurprise8 1 Aug.

Time for another update. We're currently quoted at 4.3574, about half of 1% away from my target. With only few hours to go and a slow moving pair like EUR/PLN, hitting close to the forecasted price seems unlikely. But a finish near the top is definitely in the cards!

Overall another solid forecast for this pair if I may say so myself. Betting on more of the same, i.e. a continuation of the range, has proved fruitful in this pair for the past 5 years. No reason to fight the market on this one.

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fxsurprise8 1 Aug.

Nothing to write home about in this pair today. We're having a daily range of just under 0.40%. Open to 12:00 (contest end) range was only 0.28 percent. This session once again confirms the true range-bound nature of this pair.

With the close at 4.3544, the forecast is just under 0.5% away. This is probably not enough for a win but should land be a spot among the winners.

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EURo to Weaken Toward the 1.0500 Level

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 June as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0562, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Ecb #Euro #Trend #Qe #EUR/USD #Us Dollar #Downtrend #Brexit
Brexit wasn't kind to the Euro. The pair got sold aggressively after the UK voted to leave the EU. The reaction was partially because this will result in more easing by the ECB as well as calls for referendums in other countries in the Union.
But aside from the fundamentals and the short-term charts, things are not looking better on the long-term charts either. On the daily chart below we can see that the pair broke the important support near 1.1100 on Brexit. This level held up prices for over …
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EUR/JPY Monthly Range Cut in Half

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 123.271, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Ecb #Euro #EUR/JPY #Eurozone #Japanese Yen #Range Trading #Yen Pairs #Range Box #Half
The EUR/JPY had a slow month. We closed May higher by 152 pips or only 1.2 percent. We opened the month at 121.72 and closed it at 123.23. Even the high/low range is not much bigger at 316 pips. This compared with +600 pips ranges in each of the four previous months.
If we drill down on the lower time-frame charts this aimless volatility is even easier to notice. Until we break either 124.66 or 121.47 the prudent course of action is to bet on prices staying flat.
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Volatility Dying Down in EUR/PLN

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/PLN, Target: 4.3864, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Ecb #Euro #Volatility #Range #EUR/PLN #Volume #Range Trading #Polish Zloty
Volatility continues to decline in the EUR/PLN. The total daily range in May was only 2.2 percent. This compares to over 4.7 percent in the month prior. The open to close range was even tighter at only 0.45 percent. On the chart we marked May 2016 with a rectangle to make it easier to spot.
With the summer season slowly creeping in, we will probably see volatility and volume continue their downward trends. This will mean more of the same boring ranges in the EUR/PLN. Our second chart below a lon…
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fxsurprise8 30 June

So far so good. This pair continues to trade well inside the range specified above. We are currently quoted at 4.3746, only 0.23% away from my forecast.

To be fair things got a bit close with prices spiking to a high of 4.5324 on Brexit day. But those Euro gains were quickly sold into and by the end of the day the EUR/PLN was down to 4.4500. In the last few days we're seeing the gains erased further as the Brexit consequences start to become more clear.

The UK exit from the EU could lead to more ECB easing or further calls for referendums in other EU nations. This is negative for the EUR.

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fxsurprise8 1 July

We're seeing the EUR/PLN slowly move up closer toward my forecast. It's now quoted at 4.3821, only 43 pips or 0.1% away from the target.

The past day brought us more EUR strength and this is helping my position. Volatility is fairly low today at only 88 pips or  0.2%.

If we take out Brexit volatility remained low throughout June. Without June 24th the total monthly range was only 3.4%. This is relatively low for currencies.

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fxsurprise8 1 July

The pair continued the strong Euro rally and overshoot my target by 0.22%. It traded at 4.3959 at 12:00 on July 1st. This 0.22% difference means 1st place is unlikely but with any luck I should get some of the top spots.

I've attached an updated chart. The June period is the last monthly chart on that chart. Notice how despite the Brexit shock to 4.5324, prices quickly reversed back to the mean, as expected. We closed June at 4.3749, little changed from the 4.3848 opening price on the 1st of the month.

The two major bounds at 3.9600 and 4.6000 weren't even close to being tested this month.

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