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EURUSD almost there

MyHedge Publier 1 fév  dans #Euro #Forecast #Analyse #Eurozone #Short #Euro USD
In spite of all the rhetoric talk we heard last week from Draghi, this euro rally has got to be seriously bothering the ECB. I am not sure about this but are we on the brink of a massive currency war right here?
We have been in one but this one isn't that obvious.
Ps. A way to strong EURO is very bad for the economy as it will eventually make Europe way less attractive to import goods from (trade with).
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EUR/TRY Still Can't Break Past Resistance

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 aou comme Analyse sur EUR/TRY, Cible: 4.1110, Date: 2 de octobre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #Resistance #Eurozone #Weekly #Turkey #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Bound #Turkish Lira
The EUR/TRY still can't break the important resistance around 4.17 - 4.18 Euros. As we can see on the chart below, the pair tried hard to break free only to be pushed back down below this level.
But I'm not ready to bet on EUR/TRY losses just yet. On the lower time-frames (below) we're seeing the struggle as well. All summer the pair has stayed ranged-bound. I see no reason for this to change now, so betting on more of the same and prices staying near here seems like a prudent choice.
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Is Italy unfit for the Eurozone?

Strategyrunner Publier 11 mai  dans #Europe #Fundamental #Trade #Miss Dukascopy #Blog #Italy #Eurozone #Ducascopy
Italy’s economic performance since it joined the Eurozone has been dismal. GDP per capita of Italy is now lower than at the start of the Eurozone in 1999. This means that the Italian population as a whole is now poorer than when the country joined the Eurozone.The contrast with the evolution of per capita GDP of the euro area as a whole is a stark one. The other countries of the Eurozone saw their GDP per capita increase of 15% since 1999. In other words, they have become richer by 15%. Not terr…
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Danger to Euro from Protectionism and right wing populism in Europe

mrlfx Publier 3 mar  dans #Trader's blog #Euro #Eurozone #Marine Le Pene
Is Eurozone prepared for a Trump-like win of Marine Le Pene in the coming French presidential election? Marine Le Pene openly profess breaking away from Eurozone, return of Franc and taking back sovereignity from the unelected dictators at Brussels. In a probable Marine Le Pene win in the presidential election,
- will it be the beginning of collapse of Eurozone and Euro?
- Or will Eurozone survived like after brexit referendum?
- What it meant for the currency traders around the world?
Fingers c…
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EURo tumble to end

fr33m4n Publié 24 fév comme Analyse sur EUR/JPY, Cible: 123.50, Date: 3 de avril, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR/JPY #Eurozone #Candlestick Analysis #Bullish Bias #Bullish Trend
Analytic Method: Candle patterns
Weekly/Monthly analysis
For my analysis, I have chosen to look at just the charts and candle formations, because at the end of the day, they also tell the same story. On week's chart, there is a lot of selling pressure. four losing weeks for the euro.
on a bigger chart, two losing months, but still not compared to the previous bullish month of November and December.
the overall trend is still bullish, and market pressure will likely test last month's high in a fe…
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EURo tumble ends

fr33m4n Publié 23 fév comme Analyse sur EUR/AUD, Cible: 1.4100, Date: 3 de avril, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Eurozone #EUR/AUD #Candlestick Analysis #Bullish Bias #Bullish Trend
Analytic Method: Candle patterns
Weekly/Monthly analysis
Strong bearish trend on monthly, with support broken and no pullback. Almost a whole year in bearish trend.
There i some reduction in selling pressure on week's chart. Doji formed, and elongated spikes show market hesitation and indecision. Trend change now is worth many point, enough to reach for round number target.
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fr33m4n 26 mar

This is another euro bullish prediction that is close to my mark, even though this one is about 100 points or so. And from the ways the candles are lining up, the euro could be breaking out of its recent range area. We will find out in about a week's time.

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fr33m4n 30 mar

This euro prediction is still close to my mark but about 60 points below. The market looks like it may be forming a range, meaning it could head back up very soon. There are about three trading days left, a range could work in my favour, but only if the exchange rate ends closer to 1.4100. Anything lower or much higher does not help my cause.

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fr33m4n 3 avr

This euro prediction is still about 60 points away from my mark, a decent upward price action will help reduce the distance. There is a chance that this market will continue downwaards, but that may not happen till later in the week.

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EUR/GBP Bounces at Support

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 déc comme Analyse sur EUR/GBP, Cible: 0.85216, Date: 1 de février, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #GBP #Euro #Support #Resistance #Eurozone #EUR/GBP #Pound #Levels #Brexit
The EUR/GBP finally ended its post-Brexit slump by bouncing at the support area noted on the chart below. Price bottomed out at 0.8304 during December, just below the 0.8327 support and above the 0.8248 support level. With the downtrend over, I'm not willing to bet on major increases in this pair yet.
The reason why can be seen on the picture below. During December we moved between a high of 0.8304 and a high of 0.8666. This is a fairly small amount for a major currency. But what really paints t…
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fxsurprise8 31 jan

The EUR/GBP opened the month at 0.8510 and is now quoted at 0.8579, not even 70 pips higher. The range-bound behavior this continues for a second month.

As we said in our original post, during December the pair had an open to close range that was at only 54 pips.

The current price is only 60 odd pips away from my target, so hopefully we'll get a small drift lower into month end.

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EUR/GBP Enters a Cluster of Levels

fxsurprise8 Publié 30 nov comme Analyse sur EUR/GBP, Cible: 0.8468, Date: 2 de janvier, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #GBP #EUR #Europe #Support #Resistance #Eurozone #EUR/GBP #Pound #Levels
The Pound is not having a good year. It's down against almost all majors and that includes the Euro as well. This pair initially rallied to a high of 0.9326 this year, over 2,000 pips above he lows hit in November of last year. But as we can see on the first chart below, that may be changing.
We're now quoted at 0.8468, almost 900 pips below the highs. Notice how the EUR/GBP is now entering a cluster of levels, both resistance and support. On the downside we have 0.8248 and 0.8335. On the upside…
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fxsurprise8 28 déc

I'm happy to report that the forecast is going according to plan! We are currently quoted at 0.8519, after having traded as high as 0.8571 and as low as 0.8300.

Both the current price and the monthly range are well within the bounds I outlined in my original forecast, support at 0.8248 and 0.8335, resistance at 0.8729 and 0.9326, among many other levels.

The pair has so far acted as i should, bouncing between these support/resistance levels. With the end of year coming up, which is usually a slow time for currencies, I don't expect major changes in market sentiment.

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fxsurprise8 31 déc

No major changes to report in this pair, currently we're trading at 0.8523 and that's where we closed 2016. We have a little bit more time to the January 2nd cut off point, so wish me luck!

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fxsurprise8 2 jan

According to the charts, the EUR/GBP was quoted at 0.85174 on January 2nd at 12:00. This is 49.6 pips away from my forecasted price of 0.8468.

In percentage terms this is 0.58 percent price difference. This is not enough for the first place but hopefully I will land a position near the top.

I'm working on updating my charts from the original forecast. I will post them once I finish my work, later today.

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fxsurprise8 2 jan

The picture above is an updated chart of my original forecast. The rectangle shows the price action for EUR/GBP during December.

Here's the scenario I forecasted. As the pair was  entering a cluster of levels, both resistance and support, I expected to see the pair bogged down inside these levels,producing a trading range during December.

As you can see on the pic, that's exactly what happened. We first bounced at 0.8304, between the support levels at 0.8248 and 0.8335.

The pair then rallied to near the resistance at 0.8729 but was rejected and proceeded to fall back down toward my target.

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Turkish Lira to Continue Stabilization

fxsurprise8 Publié 30 nov comme Analyse sur EUR/TRY, Cible: 3.6405, Date: 2 de janvier, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #EUR #Eurozone #Long Term #Turkey #EUR/TRY #Try #Turkish Lira #Stabilization #Us Election
The month of November started out unusually busy for the EUR/TRY. This pair usually doesn't move much. But in the aftermath of the US election, we saw a spike all the way to the 3.6900 level. Over 20 days later and the pair still can't surpass the highs seen on November 10th. This shows that we're finally stabilizing.
But that's only reason number one why I'm betting on stabilization in the EUR/TRY. The second reason is shown on the hourly chart below. Notice how no clear momentum can be seen he…
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Elens94 1 déc

Good work

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EUR/USD Bounces Off Long-Term Support

fxsurprise8 Publié 30 nov comme Analyse sur EUR/USD, Cible: 1.0596, Date: 2 de janvier, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Euro #Support #EUR/USD #Eurozone #Long Term #Us Dollar #Momentum #Support Levels #Single Currency
I think the losses for the Euro are coming to an end. Our first chart below shows reason number one. The pair recently bounced off 1.0522. This is a long-term support level that held up prices for the past 18 months. Not far from here we find another level, the 1.0462 swing low. This is a multi-year for the Euro. The last time the single currency traded below here was all the way back in 2003.
On our second chart we see a glimpse of the trading on the lower time-frame. Notice how during the past…
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fxsurprise8 28 déc

Things are not going exactly as planned in the EUR/USD. While the pair managed to break the 1.0500 handle, it hasn't made much headway below the figure.

We spent the last two weeks of December swinging between 1.0400 and 1.0500. We are currently quoted at 1.0404.

This is certainly no consolation for my forecast, which remains off by almost 2 percent. But the end of the contest is still a good time away, so let's hope we bounce back on year-end flows.

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fxsurprise8 31 déc

Things are looking up for my forecast! During the past few days the EUR/USD rallied over 120 pips to close the year at 1.0525. This is around 70 pips away from my forecast. Now this doesn't mean the contest is over, we still have few more days left until January 2nd.

There is still hope that mean reversion will continue to be a force here and push us higher still. We're coming up from oversold levels, like I noted in my original forecast. Plus the bounce at support lends more credence to the bounce story.

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