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It's All About FOMC Next Week

fxsurprise8 Posted 13 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #Federal Reserve #Fomc #Us Dollar #Trader's Contest
It will be all about the FOMC next week. While there are some smaller events, the key will be the Federal Reserve Thursday monetary policy meeting. Currently the odds are stacked against a rate rise. Goldman says NO to September, maybe for December. There is a possibility for some hawkish comments.
But given the price action last week, and the weak performance of the Dollar, my bet would be on NO rate rise and no major change in rhetoric that would give away the first rise. But even if things st…
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EUR/HKD Higher Inside the Wedge

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/HKD, Target: 8.5980, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CHF #Federal Reserve #USD/CHF #Us Dollar #Snb #Swiss Franc #EUR/HKD #Swissy
The EUR/HKD has been in a strong downtrend last year. On the chart below we can see the EUR/HKD getting sold heavily over 20 percent, from 10.80 to 8.12, as the ECB undertook a large QE program.
But this year things are starting to turn around. Since March 2015, there have been no new lows for the pair. On the contrary, a sequence of higher lows may indicate more gains for EUR/HKD. To be fair, we're also seeing a sequence or lower highs so this situation is not wildly bullish by any measure. Thi…
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Small Losses for the Euro

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0820, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Ecb #Federal Reserve #Euro #Europe #EUR/USD #Fed #Us Dollar
The diverging monetary policies between the ECB and the Fed will keep the downward pressure on the Euro. Looking at the longterm, the pair has been strongly trending lower since May of 2014. The EUR/USD lost over 3,500 pips before stabilizing somewhat in Q2 of this year.
But on the shorter time-frame things look complicated. The single currency has stayed mostly in a range since for the past 2-3 months. The pair is still exhibiting a slight bearish bias however. On the chart below we can see a d…
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Fed Staff Bets on 2015 Rate Hike

fxsurprise8 Posted 25 July  in #Trader's blog #Federal Reserve #AUD/USD #Fed #Us Dollar #Trader's Contest
The Fed published forecasts by its staff that show a 2015 rate hike. The mishap, which is currently under investigation by the federal prosecutors, predict a 0.35% rate for Q4 this year. This is about 25 basis points above the current rate, meaning the staff sees one hike this year.
The July meeting next week seems like a long shot for a rise but now September and October are back on the table. Analysts at JPMorgan and Barclays said that the leak suggests a hike before December. This should supp…
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1 Comments
pipx avatar
pipx 26 July

I don't think was a mistake just made to appear like one, then see what happens on Monday open. From there then decide what the real rate should be.

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