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CAD - Retail Sales a miss, CPI on top

Jignesh Posted 21 Nov  in #Trader's blog #CAD #Fundamentals
On Friday we saw a data release from Canada that received a bit of a mixed reaction.
Retail sales came in less than expected at -0.5% vs -0.3%, however CPI saw an uptick at 0.3% vs 0.2%.
The USDCAD initially had a bullish run off the news, but quickly sold off. As important as Retail sales is, all inflation related data at this point takes the forefront, as disinflation has been haunting economies globally.
The uptick, and rather hawkish monetary policy we received from CAD a few weeks back look…
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GBPUSD - Pull back or Reversal of Trend?

Jignesh Posted 15 Nov  in #Trader's blog #GBP #Boe #Fundamentals #Trend #Cpi #Inflation #Gbpusd
The British Pound posted impressive gains last week. And that too, without any catalyst in place. Throughout the week we saw minimal retracements as the price marched higher, which is usually a sign of unusual strength.
But it is still unclear if the trend is reversed, or if the move is merely a pull back against the main down trend.

The chart below shows GBPUSD retracing already 50% of the move down, and that without a catalyst.
On Tuesday we have inflation related data coming out of the UK. T…
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Bad Data + USD Strength = Strong Positioning

Jignesh Posted 13 Nov  in #Trader's blog #USD #Fundamentals #Data #Positioning
The US saw negative numbers released today, yet we saw the USD rally. The numbers were not just marginally bad, they were really bad. significant deviations from expectations across the board.
Often it's during news releases that we get a strong indication of where exactly the major players are positioning. Often, by careful analysis we can see that a currency should have sold off slightly more, or that a rally should have lasted a bit longer, but small signs of what the big players views on the…
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AUD Unemployment Up Next

Jignesh Posted 11 Nov  in #Trader's blog #Fundamentals #Rba #Unemployment Rate
All eyes are on the Australian Dollar as it is set to release it's Unemployment Rate later in the Asian Session.
Unlike it's counterpart New Zealand, the labor market has faired better than expectations. Earlier this year the RBA had commented that they expected this number to peak at 6.5% - a number which is yet to be seen.
As well, a few weeks back, the RBA released a monetary policy statement that seemed rather hawkish. No major concerns were mentioned. Essentially the view was that they were…
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Light Data Week Ahead

Jignesh Posted 8 Nov  in #Trader's blog #Fundamentals #Volatility #Data
The Week ahead of us may perhaps show a slowdown in volatility after some big moves that have been witnessed in the first week of November.
Here is a Summary & My interpretation.
China
Inflation data due on Monday & Industrial Production on Wednesday. Usually not major market movers, but can have some impact on the commodity currencies AUD & NZD
New Zealand
Financial Stability report & Press Conference on Tuesday. After last week's weak employment numbers, eyes will be on this event to se…
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End of Week Currency Fundamental Summary

Jignesh Posted 7 Nov  in #Trader's blog #GBP #NZD #USD #Fundamentals
The past week was filled with Fundamental data releases. Here is a summary which may assist in finding trading opportunities in the week to come.
NZD - The early week employment release for New Zealand saw the pair miss in data yet once again. It is quite clear that the labor sector is struggling. We have already seen a larger reversal in several NZD pairs a few weeks back after some temporary strength. At the moment, the single currency may be considered oversold, but any rallies can be expecte…
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NFP Numbers contribute to divergent monetary policy outlook

Jignesh Posted 6 Nov  in #Trader's blog #USD #Nfp #Federal Reserve #Fundamentals #Rate Decision #Fed #Rate Hike #Nfp Release
The numbers coming out of the United States were nothing short of fantastic.
Unlike any previous release, dynamics have changed in the markets.
For a large part of the week, the US Dollar was receiving a strong bid. There was some contributing factors such as negative data out of NZD and GBP, and the markets still considering the negative view point of the EURO where the ECB is seriously considering further QE..
The negative outlooks on several economies, combined with positive data out of the U…
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Beaten up Kiwi takes a strong Rebound

Jignesh Posted 5 Nov  in #Trader's blog #NZD #Fundamentals #Nzdusd #Kiwi #Employment #Nzdjpy #Labor Market
The Kiwi has taken a beating this week as fundamentals have not been in favor of the currency. It started with a bad Dairy number, and then continued with a big miss in Employment change.
Although the Unemployment Rate came in as expected at 6.0%, It was still a drop from previous reading at 5.9, in fact, New Zealand has been posting steady declines in Unemployment since last year this time.
To top that off, the USD has been strong, which has been putting pressure on all the majors. Today, the K…
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RBA Statement Overview and Interpretation

Jignesh Posted 3 Nov  in #Trader's blog #Fundamentals #Audusd #Rba #Inflation #Monetary Policy #Central Bank #Rba Meeting
In Yesterday's blog post I wrote about a technical short setup ahead of the RBA statement. The result turned out to be bullish.
I have taken some time to highlight some key points from my interpretation of the statement. It is included in the image below.
The main impression left from the statement was quite positive. The RBA addressed inflation, as expected as it is a global concern, however they have realistic expectations in regards to the low levels of inflation and expect that may remain so…
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Strong CPI Data - USD Strength or time to Fade?

Jignesh Posted 22 Mag  in #Trader's blog #USD #Federal Reserve #Fundamentals #Inflation #Fundamental Analysis #Usdx #Janet Yellen
Month over Month Core CPI came in at 0.3% versus a forecast of 0.2%. And has caused a boost for the USD in early New York Trading. CPI is an important event from the Inflation data set, as current inflation levels are too low, an issue central bankers are facing globally.
So can this spur new buying into the USD? Is the downtrend finally over and time to start buying again?
Perhaps not the case. Previously this week we saw some mixed reaction off the release of the FOMC minutes. Headlines were s…
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