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FED tappers Effect

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 21 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Fed #Geopolitical Event #Tapper Risk Aversion #Quantitative Guidance #Qualitative #Hike Rates Yellen
The main event from this week was definitely the Fed Monetary policy Statement and as expected there was no surprise that Fed taper another 10B of assets purchases, despite the general risk aversion sentiment in the market and despite the geopolitical event which is Ukraine. They have ignored all this factors and they are continuing with a gradual taper of $10B/month as they have put it on an autopilot.
The only thing that has surprised the market was the fact that Fed is moving away from qua…
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3 Kommentar
Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 22 Mar.

Well you certanly have good point here buddy.One thing thoug. Personally i think a stronger bearish wave is needed before a rally towards 1.40 price level. I thin that  somewhere betwen 1.36 -1.37 we could have a strong support that could sustain a rally towards 1.40. A rally from current level is possible but  i doubt it.Great  correlation of events. You certainly are  the only person around  who  correlates very well tehnical with fndamentals in a way  that we can all understand. Nice keep it up.

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 22 Mar.

PS: I started trading idexes heavly , DAX, DOW,Nikkei. I would love to see some analytic wiews on these topics to.:).

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 22 Mar.

Metal_Mind Yo buddy:). My personal preference is for eurusd not to go below 1.3700 otherwise it will go more to the downside as it will confirm the false breakout of that big trend line that connects the 2008 and 2011 highs. false breakouts are usually signs of a strong reversal. right now I'm on sideline waiting for the next week to see how the market opens, because we had a weak close this week slightly below 1.3800, I would have loved to see it above that figure. Wish you good luck with the indexes you will be amazed to see they respect far better the technical levels than the fx market.

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Preparing the Week Ahead

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 16 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Boe #Boc #Fed #Easing #Tapering #Geopolitical Event

Not only the market it can become very sensitive to the current geopolitical event which is Ukraine, but next week the economic calendar is very hot as we have the FED monetary policy announcement and the Fed peace of MBS and Treasury purchase program. Don't be fooled that recent event like the EM crisis or this geopolitical event can interfere with tapering, FED tapering is already on autopilot and we should see further $10B/meeting reduction in assets purchase and we should see Fed moving fur…
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5 Kommentar
Convallium avatar
Convallium 16 Mar.

Great blog post!  We should always plan our deal if we want to have profit)

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 16 Mar.

Convallium true, trading is all about preparation and execution.

Convallium avatar
Convallium 16 Mar.

Thank you, Daytrader21, I will use it on this week)

jezz avatar
jezz 16 Mar.

I'm not sure if Draghi can help. His statements are... without authority, to be gentle. The overall negative exchanges between US and Russia are not helping USD at all. If I were Chinese, I would buy the dollar now :P

Convallium avatar
Convallium 16 Mar.

Thank you, Jezz ,for your vision)  I also try to operate with Chinese and USD)

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War bullish or Bearish?

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 5 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Bearish #Bullish #Stock Market #War #Risk Event #Geopolitical Event
Currently the main market driven theme and the high risk event is the geopolitical event happening right now in Ukraine. As we have seen the market has become very sensitive to any risk event The news coming out from Ukraine are escalating very fast the Risk ON-OFF play and usually in time of uncertainties Risk On-Off will play in both sides as things begin to escalate in Ukraine risk aversion will kick in and when things will see some …
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3 Kommentar
Nicco avatar
Nicco 5 Mar.

Very, very interesting, as any post of Daytrader! You dom't find any data to interpolate COLD WAR too? The present situation with Russia-Ukraine-The rest of the World I think isn't a true war (I hope so!) but a cold war, or a freesing war...

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 5 Mar.

Thanks, Nicco. Cold war doesn't necessarily mean direct military action. Unfortunately I don't have any data as per your request

Convallium avatar
Convallium 6 Mar.

yes, Ukraine brought risks!

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Preparing the Week Ahead

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 2 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Boe #Boc #Rba #Ukraine #Risk Event #Geopolitical Event #Save Haven

With the uprising tension in Ukraine and because we are in facto in a war the market action may be disrupted by the events developing right now in Ukraine. If the market will get very sensitive to this geopolitical event we can see massive capital inflows into the save haven instruments like USD,CHF,JPY and Gold which is ultimately the hedge against government not inflation as I've been demonstrating in my previous blog posts.
Above all of this next week economic calendar is very heavy and H…
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Maria_r avatar
Maria_r 2 Mar.

+1

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Olympics and Stock Market Correlation. Cycle of War

Daytrader21 Veröffentlicht 17 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #Russia #Stock Market #Ukraine #Cycles #Geopolitical Event #Olympics #Cold War
A professional trader will look at just about everything that can give him a statistical edge to make a profitable trade. Even myself as a believer and practitioner of market cycles I'm looking for cycles that can be found from presidential election, Inflation figures, Unemployment figures and even the Olympic Games if there is a statistical evidence that you can make a buck from it than I'll trade it.
According to a research from Bespoke Investment Group during the last 26 Olympics Game the…
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Skif avatar
Skif 17 Feb.

Не пишите о том о чем не имеете представления , это сообщение касается вашего мнения относительно событий происходящих в Украине .

jezz avatar
jezz 17 Feb.

Sometimes I feel a strong connection (actually I mean love) between you and fractals :D

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 17 Feb.

@Jezz LOL.........Actually, I'm very fascinated about fractals in general and in particular about the applicability in the Markets as well. You just give me an idea, tomorrow I'm going to update one fractal that I've posted here last year, and guess what the market followed that analog quite astonishing:)))). At that moment many didn't believed it will work. You'll have to wait until tomorrow to see about what fractal I speak about:).

jezz avatar
jezz 17 Feb.

Pascal freaks...

ruwim avatar
ruwim 7 Mar.

very interesting, thanks for your research and good luck.

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