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Slow Week Coming Up!

fxsurprise8 Posted 19 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #Euro #Greece #Greek Elections #Trader's Contest
A slow week is coming up for the forex market. After the conclusion of the all-important FOMC meeting on Thursday, we will back to the usual snooze-fest.
On Sunday we have Greek elections but this should have no material impact on the Euro. As this year has demonstrated, no matter which party gets elected, they will eventually tow the EU line.
Monday and Tuesday there is literally nothing to trade on. The pairs should still be reeling from the volatility caused by the FOMC meeting.
On Wednesday …
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Greek Negotiations Not Going Well

fxsurprise8 Posted 11 July  in #Trader's blog #Euro #Greece #Trader's Contest #Greece Referendum
The negotiations on the 3rd Greek bailout in five years are not going well. A hardline camp led by Germany expressed serious reservations about the Greek proposal. Trust has been destroyed by the Greek attempts to play chicken with the Eurogroup in the past few months. Now even after they've done a complete U-turn, the Germans are not buying it.
According to newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, the German goverment floated the idea of a 5-year Euro hiatus for Greece. Given the recen…
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Stopped Out of Euro Short, Again

fxsurprise8 Posted 6 July  in #Trader's blog #Euro #Greece #Trader's Contest #Greece Referendum
I took only 1 trade today, Euro short. I used the EUR/HKD and exited at a small gain, close to breakeven. I can't tell you the exact prices because some parts of the Dukascopy community don't work atm.
Tonight we have the RBA meeting at 12:30 PM EST, 6:30 AM CET for us Europeans. While the Bank is expected to keep rates on hold, surprises are possible. I'm biased to the short side in this pair. On Tuesday we will have another round of meetings between Eurogroup members. Greece is supposed to sen…
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Back to Breakeven for the Month

fxsurprise8 Updated 4 July  in #Trader's blog #Euro #Week #Greece #Trader's Contest #Recap
In my last post I focused on the Greek referendum and forgot to update my readers on my positions. I took several trades on Friday, the most important of which was an Aussie short. I left a pending sell at 0.7587, this was triggered in the Asian session on Friday. I rode this trade all the way to the close, when I was margin called due to the weekend leverage. Total gain +62 pips.
The margin call was a mistake on my part, I should've adjusted my positions much earlier. With the large volatility …
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EURo to Decline Towards 1.1000

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 June as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1015, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USA #Euro #Europe #EUR/USD #Greece #Us Dollar #Grexit
The Euro will decline toward 1.1000. While the currency pair remains overbought, I think the coming summer season will dampen some of the sell-off. The true Euro losses will be seen in late August, early September. Why am I betting on more losses? Well the mess is Greece is one reason but since this is a technical analysis contest, let's stick to technicals. The chart below shows the trend for the single currency, unmistakeably down.
The EUR/USD has repeatedly failed to break above the 1.1400 ma…
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fxsurprise8 30 July

The Euro resumed its sell-off in July. Each rally has been used by bears to load up on the cheap. We are currently quoted at 1.0930, because we overshoot my 1.1015 target.

But with the summer dull-drums upon us, I expect the EUR/USD to rally back higher. The trend is down but I think the moves will be smaller and more range-bound. On the daily chart we are getting into oversold territory according to the RSI and Stochastic (8,3,3). Hopefully this means we will see a move higher soon.

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fxsurprise8 3 Aug.

The Euro continues to swing widely around the 1.1000 handle. On Friday we broke higher by over 100 pips and hit 1.1113. But by the end of the session, the single currency retreated back to 1.0983. We are currently quoted at 1.0981, still about 25 pips away from my target.

As I explained in my post above, round numbers like 1.1000 can act as magnets for currency pairs, so it's no surprise to see the Euro oscillate above and below this important figure. Hopefully this effect will continue into the end of the contest and the EUR/USD drifts higher towards my forecast.

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EURo Set to Open 140 Pips Lower

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 June  in #Trader's blog #Euro #Greece #Grexit #Trader's Contest
According to early morning prices, the Euro will open at 1.1015, a full 140 pips below Friday's close. The ECB kept the ELA funding at the same level of 89 Billion Euros. This means that with ongoing withdrawals in Greece, the country's banks will be unable to fulfill withdrawals. News reports are saying that the Greek government will introduce week-long capital restrictions, until after the referendum on July 5th. But if other capital restrictions are a guide, it's likely that these restriction…
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