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- Expectations of tapering will rise as labour market continues to show cumulative improvement
- Fed wants to be assured that any progress in labour market will be lasting
- Unemployment and and payrolls have clearly improved but other labour data has not
- FOMC decisions are dependant on data
- Forward guidance and asset buying separate tools but market sees them closely linked creating challenges for Fed
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Fed Bullard: Small taper would still leave very stimulative policy
ECB would do well to keep rates on hold.
ECB would do well to keep rates on hold. For now.
After yesterdays belated market focus on the underlying problems in managing a single strategy for the whole eurozone, it put into sharp focus the policy options facing the ECB. The west has had a ferocious and deadly enemy for the last 40 years, and it was called inflation. All the ammunition and strategy has been directed towards killing this enemy, and the threat has – for the while – gone away. While this battle has been raging however, a new…
After yesterdays belated market focus on the underlying problems in managing a single strategy for the whole eurozone, it put into sharp focus the policy options facing the ECB. The west has had a ferocious and deadly enemy for the last 40 years, and it was called inflation. All the ammunition and strategy has been directed towards killing this enemy, and the threat has – for the while – gone away. While this battle has been raging however, a new…
Forex Americas wrap: Euro lets out a shriek
Forex headlines for October 31, 2013:
•. Initial jobless claims 340K vs 338K
•. Chicago PMI 65.9 vs 55.0 but caveats apply
•. Canadian Aug GDP +0.3% vs +0.1% exp
•. Numerous banks make calls for ECB to cut rates next week
•. BOE’s Weale says unemployment has surprised in the past, could do it again
•. Rand Paul throws in the towel on Yellen blockade
•. Gold down $20 to $1324
•. WTI crude down 50-cents to $96.27
•. CAD leads, EUR lags
The euro fell the most in four months, plunging…
•. Initial jobless claims 340K vs 338K
•. Chicago PMI 65.9 vs 55.0 but caveats apply
•. Canadian Aug GDP +0.3% vs +0.1% exp
•. Numerous banks make calls for ECB to cut rates next week
•. BOE’s Weale says unemployment has surprised in the past, could do it again
•. Rand Paul throws in the towel on Yellen blockade
•. Gold down $20 to $1324
•. WTI crude down 50-cents to $96.27
•. CAD leads, EUR lags
The euro fell the most in four months, plunging…
Dollar up to 98.50 as sterling and euro lose
Dollar yen got a bit nervy in the seconds leading up to the release, falling to 98.06 but then found it’s stride and has pooped up to 98.50, The euro popped to 1.3785 then dropped to 1.3728. Cable has fallen to 1.6025 but has held ahead of support at 1.6020.
Having done a quick text comparison from last months meeting there’s nothing of note between the texts so it’s business as usual. Nothing on the shutdown or Washington shenanigans and I think they may use this card at a later stage like next…
Having done a quick text comparison from last months meeting there’s nothing of note between the texts so it’s business as usual. Nothing on the shutdown or Washington shenanigans and I think they may use this card at a later stage like next…
What to do with the FOMC announcement
We have the usual hyped-up stand-off ahead of the actual announcement. Stop me if you’ve heard this before but I will be waiting to see what actually happens rather than get involved in a crap shoot prior ( and I choose my sporting reference carefully!)
The minutes from the last meeting showed the decision not to taper was a close call but the relevance of this stance has since been reduced/dismissed given the partial US govt shut-down and the less than accurate data releases since then.
So to t…
The minutes from the last meeting showed the decision not to taper was a close call but the relevance of this stance has since been reduced/dismissed given the partial US govt shut-down and the less than accurate data releases since then.
So to t…
Why it is time to bet big on Japan
Will Japan finally get out of its two decade slump?
I have heard that Japan is finally “recovering” from the very beginning of my career. Clearly all those instances have been false starts but this time there are some key differences.
The year of 1984 was a time where Japan was still economically dominant – remember all the textbooks written about Japan’s economic miracle? But Alphaville’s great song also includes the apt lyric “Here’s my comeback on the road again”.
Will the Abenomics “comebac…
I have heard that Japan is finally “recovering” from the very beginning of my career. Clearly all those instances have been false starts but this time there are some key differences.
The year of 1984 was a time where Japan was still economically dominant – remember all the textbooks written about Japan’s economic miracle? But Alphaville’s great song also includes the apt lyric “Here’s my comeback on the road again”.
Will the Abenomics “comebac…
BOJ could re-write the playbook on defeating deflation
What economists don’t like to tell you is that price inflation doesn’t really matter. Prices can only go up for so long until people can’t afford the good.
What matters is wage inflation, which can spiral out of control. Here’s the corollary, what if you’re stuck in a nearly 20-year deflationary cycle? Why not go right to the heart of the matter and target wage increases? That’s…
What matters is wage inflation, which can spiral out of control. Here’s the corollary, what if you’re stuck in a nearly 20-year deflationary cycle? Why not go right to the heart of the matter and target wage increases? That’s…
Photo Crasher!
This little guy has a lot of character!
Change is a fearful process
Change is a fearful process: