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ECB a disappointing story

I'm not sure about everyone else but I wasn't expected ECB not to upgrade their QE program from 60B euro to at least 75B euros. This was a big disappointment even for the market itself as the build up in expectation ahead of the meeting was quite huge. Based on the latest COT report the net speculative short position ahead of the meeting where as high as they where in March when again happened to get a swing low. It never chase to amaze me how accurate this can be use as an contrarian indicator,…
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ECB on the Spotlight

If Mario can't move the euro no one cans, so lets hope he will put a stop to the current never ending ranging EUR/USD market. Let's be honest here EUR/USD has been a pain over the last few months as it has been moving back and forth. We still have to answer one important question on how EUR/USD will move based on whatever the monetary policy may be.
One thing I'm sure of is that they aren't going to expand their easing program at least not before Fed does a move first, with normalizing interest …
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Bimlesh avatar
Bimlesh 22 Oct.

excellent bro.. that's a giant move you took this month...!

Daytrader21 avatar

Bimlesh Unfortunately I left on the table more than 250 pips on this moves. But with this market you never know what you may get so I wanted to look in the profits

Bimlesh avatar
Bimlesh 22 Oct.

that's wonderful... we never no.. me too shifted to the 1min time frame..:)

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ECB On The Spotlight

In today's ECB meeting Mario Draghi will give more details on the ABS program and covered bond purchase programme, as this has been already announced in September meeting.
Also in regard to the TLTRO, ECB will be in waiting mode and wait for the December auction in order to asses the success of the programme so it may be the case there will be no new step taken, this year, towards QE. but this is just my assumption and interpretation of current data and anything can be possible. Right now it's …
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verindur 2 Oct.

ECB minting money with mouth.)))))))))

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What To Expect For FOMC Minutes

Beside the fact that the main risk event for today is definitely the FOMC minutes we also have Mario Draghi speaking lately today. When it comes to the ECB there are different opinions in regards with what will trigger ECB QE. Some members see QE only in an "emergency situation" and others say "ready to take any actions that may prove necessary should downside risks further materialise" like Noyer.
When it comes to FOMC minutes I'm not expecting any market-moving comments coming from Yellen's sp…
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ECB Ready for "Prime Time"

Tomorrow's ECB meeting can be the most important event of the year for euro as low inflation threats can be an obstacle to EU recovery.
The President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi has already signaled the fact that ECB is ready to take action at today's meeting including both conventional and unconventional measures.
What to expect from tomorrow's ECB meeting?

Although the stimulus expectation has certainly picked up, however we can't look at just one aspect, and interest rates
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mag avatar
mag 4 June

Watching Mr. Draghi

Daytrader21 avatar

mag  everyone will be with their eyes on Draghi tomorrow. HelgaPehkel Neither of that, it's hard to believe we're going to move 800 pips :) just based on tomorrow ECB new market policy. However as far as I'm concern the risk is for a downside movement, but it can be a tricky one and it depends on how powerful the credit easing would be, otherwise we can have a big whipsaw, first to the downside and than a squeeze rally.

HelgaPehkel avatar

Of course, I talked about the long term)) not only about tomorrow))

Daytrader21 avatar

HelgaPehkel Long term I'm bearish on EUR/USD. Check out my article from last month, I've been written in details what are my expectation. I hope it will help.

Neu_spir8 avatar

Didn't see this post till now, man you're good.

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Prepearing the Week Ahead


This week's ECB meeting can be the most important event of the year for euro as low inflation threats can be an obstacle to EU recovery. The President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi has already signaled the fact that ECB is ready to take action at this week's meeting including both conventional and unconventional measures.
Market expectation for ECB meeting:
  1. Refi rate to be cut by 15bps to 0.1%;
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sankit avatar
sankit 2 June

Very informative , well done buddy !

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Game Over

Once again I got knocked out at an earlier stage of the contest and my chances to recover are zero , I guess I'll have to live to fight another month for a top rank in the contest. I got a margin call after my long EUR/JPY position went against me. Although initially it went in my favor but my target was missed by 15 pips.
Everything happened just too fast and it seems that Mario Draghi's comments and his willingness to change monetary policy as soon as Jun has put a lot of pressure on eruo. I k…
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Stix avatar
Stix 9 May

I had a look... You can do it, if you put your mind to it. If I suggest one thing, it would be to concentrate on one currency pair till you are at least partially back up. Whatever you decide... Best of luck.

Daytrader21 avatar

Stix Even though I can still recover from this DD I'll have to put too much time and effort into this, I'l better try my luck next month and right now keep my focus on my live account.

Stix avatar
Stix 9 May

Valid point. Myself, I am still my own enemy and think it will take another two weeks. So, likely, I will see you there. Have an awesome month !

cocciolla avatar

OTHERWISE THE POSSIBILITIES ARE ALWAYS THERE, IT IS NOT TRUE THAT ARE EQUAL TO 0

Omela avatar
Omela 14 May

Good luck to you! ))

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What to Expect From ECB

Today we have ECB interest rate decision and later Draghi's press conference which is a big risk event for the euro and it has the ability to move markets more than usual and can initiate some big movements however market expectation for today meeting are very neutral and there is not so much expectation for ECB to act this month as many sees Jun more appropriate for the ECB to take action.
Recent EUR/USD strength has been due to a lot of factors and mainly because:
[…
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mag avatar
mag 8 May

Absolutly agree

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EURO- Verbal Intervention

As expected we have not even started the week and the ECB's heads are trying to talk down the euro but so far, comparing with last week reaction to their words, lets just say they had little success.
I guess they will only take action when the level of pain is reached and we can still see EUR/USD exchange rate at 1.4 before this dumb heads will take action instead of just words. But for now lets just enjoy the show.
This morning we had some comments even from German Finance Minister Schaeubl…
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jezz avatar
jezz 14 Apr.

Maybe they should try to support it with some golden bars?

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ECB Monetary Policy Statement

This is definitely the most awaited ECB meeting since awhile. After weaker EU inflation reading, the CPI figures came in worse than expected at 4 years low, at 0.5% and is well below the ECB's 2% target. Although ECB may feel some pressure as inflation hits new lows, I'm not sure if ECB is going to easing or not as there is no clear view if they are
ready to act and tame down deflationary pressure.
ECB is pretty stationary when it comes to the perception of his monetary policy standing.

A…
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Convallium avatar

            You always write good and useful things! thank you, Daytrader21!

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