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NZD/CAD Summer Rally

NZD/CAD has the tendencies to rally during summer periods(see Figure 1) or at least to make a pause in the trend and stay inside a range. We can see that right from the first few days of Jun the market is starting to rally and more often it puts in place a major swing low. The seasonality are a strong tool to use but they never must be used alone and in combination with other technical tools, because the seasonality it only gives us the tendencies of what we should expect the marke…
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Update 4: As expected we pushed higher from previous week support at 0.8440 and we managed to break and close above the big figure 0.8500 which is another positive sign for the bulls in the short term price action. Next week I'm expecting the big figure to be retested and old resistance to become new support.

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Update 5: Last Friday we saw the power of the big round number 0.8500 and the explosive rally from that level. For Monday we should expect a retrace to at least 0.8590 which is near my forecast target of 0.8591 and which is a previous strong supply area that now can act as support. The plan for Monday will be a break above Friday's high 0.8650 or a retest than a quick fade and a break towards 0.8590

WallStreet6 avatar

really great analysis!

Mariia avatar
Mariia 2 Aug.

well done Daytrader21

anna_n avatar
anna_n 2 Aug.

great thoughts as usual!

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NZD/CAD Summer Rally

NZD/CAD has the tendencies to rally during summer periods(see Figure 1) or at least to make a pause in the trend and stay inside a range. We can see that right from the first few days of Jun the market is starting to rally and more often it puts in place a major swing low. The seasonality are a strong tool to use but they never must be used alone and in combination with other technical tools, because the seasonality it only gives us the tendencies of what we should expect the marke…
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Update 1: It seems that the market is having another go towards the major support level of 0.8800 which is also the bottom of current range box. As long as this level holds my forecast is still valid 

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Update 2: Due to recent RBNZ decision to cut rates the technical landscape has changed and right now with a new swing low being put in place , below 8.8600 the flow has been shifted to the downside. In order for this to regain momentum we need a close above 0.8750

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NZD/CAD Range Trade Boxes

NZD/CAD has been moving over the paste few years in a big range boxes and that's usually the case with a lot of pair crosses as this is their normal behavior. In Figure 1 we can see how this price action looks like. Usually when we enter in the territory of a new range boxes the new boxes that will form in the right side of the chart will use the middle of the range box from the left as the top and as the bottom will use the middle of the box from beneath the price action where most likely there…
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Update 3: The market has established another range box between 0.9600 resistance zone and 0.9350 support zone with 0.9550 middle of the box. For the next few weeks we should see the market trading between this two extreme points

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Update 4: We retested the 0.9350 support zone and the bottom of our range box.Next week we need a break and a close above the big round number 0.9500 for further upside. We're still in a range and us such we should expect the market to bounce between this levels

Angelwales avatar
Angelwales 18 Apr.

I like the going up ....  nice

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 26 Apr.

rise and shine . Seem to be going in the right direction

Mani avatar
Mani 26 Apr.

nice

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NZD/CAD Range Trade Boxes

NZD/CAD has been moving over the paste few years in a big range boxes and that's usually the case with a lot of pair crosses as this is their normal behavior. In Figure 1 we can see how this price action looks like. Usually when we enter in the territory of a new range boxes the new boxes that will form in the right side of the chart will use the middle of the range box from the left as the top and as the bottom will use the middle of the box from beneath the price action where most likely there…
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Update 1: Even though we already hit our target and than we saw a rejection from 0.9430 level this pair is still contained inside a congestion zone between 0.9200 support level and 0.9400 resistance zone.

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Update 2: The price action currently is developing the right box (see Figure 1) with resistance at 0.9447 which is near my forecast level and support level at big round number 0.9000. We also have as the middle of the box the 0.9200 level, from where price could react in both ways, up or down.

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Update 3: As expected the middle of the box, the 0.9200 level has provided a good support level and  we rally back towards my target 0.9429 for the second time. Unfortunately this can retrace back inside the range and retest the previous week low at 0.9300 in which case we'll miss our target. The second scenario I have in mind is for a break higher to retest the big round number 0.9500 and hopefully to see a rejection.

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Update 4: We're still boxing and as such further consolidation is in sights. After the second rejection of the big round number 0.9500 we could clearly see some strong momentum to the downside. There is not much of support to the downside from current level and taking in consideration that we're only few pips away from my target we can expect the market to push further down. However it's important to open next week inside this range for this scenario to hold true.

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Update 5: As expected we consumed the Friday's rally and we're now back retesting the lows. The 0.9400 round number should provide good support for the next couple of hours and there is a chance of a minor reaction from this level.  Right now we're moving inside a narrow range between 0.9400 and 0.9440 resistance level(see Figure attached), and my target is somewhere in the middle (0.9429) The probabilities are that we should keep moving inside this range for the next few hours as  usually nzd pairs only start moving after the NY session.

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NZD/CAD Downward Channel

NZD/CAD is turning from an bullish trend into a bearish trend after we succeed in breaking the upward channel (see Figure 1) Since mid-2013 we have moved in and consistent upward channel and at the same time bullish trend. But we have turned back after we broke away from this channel and current price structure of this down wave looks very stepper signaling the bears are in control and we should expect further downside movement.
Figure 1. NZD/CAD Weekly Chart

From the weekly cha…
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Update 1: As expected last week the momentum was pressing to the downside but there is a little more to go before we hit our first support zone at 0.8700 level before to see any reaction to the upside. To the upside major resistance level is at 0.8900 ahead of the big round number 0.9000.

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Update 2: As long as we stay below 0.9000 big round number the bearish trend remains intact. Currently the sentiment is neutral at this level as both the bears and bull try to regain control of this market. We need a break and a close below that level before the market to resume downward

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NZD/CAD Reversal Pattern

NZD/CAD is turning from an bullish trend into a bearish trend after we succeed in breaking the upward channel (see Figure 1) Since mid-2013 we have moved in and consistent upward channel and at the same time bullish trend. But we have turned back after we broke away from this channel and current price structure of this down wave looks very stepper signaling the bears are in control and we should expect further downside movement.
Figure 1. NZD/CAD Weekly Chart

From the w…
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Update 5: As expected this past week we had another sell off an retest the 0.8700 support level without the market to be able to close below it. Right now we're only 21 pips away from our target and based on intraday charts in the first few hours of Monday we should expect the market to trade between 0.8730-8770 so there is a high chance to hit our target or at least move even closer to it.

bharatholsa avatar

congrats - well done ))

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 5 Nov.

Nicely Done!

foreignexchange avatar

Congrats, good job

Daytrader21 avatar

Thanks guys:)

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NZD/CAD Heading Towards New All Time Highs

NZD/CAD previous all time high exchange rate was at 0.9776 which is coming at risk in coming months, as current up trend is developing in full swing as we manage to breakout above current upward channel and the fact that we had a successful retest of the channel and price is holding above it which adds more to the upward momentum (see Figure 1).
Figure 1. NZD/CAD Weekly Chart. Upward Channel.

Daily chart also suggest that in coming week we can expect some further consolidations as we appr…
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Update 1: It seems we have push a little too much lower from my projection of 0.9450 to act as support, now we should look carefully for 0.9300 to act as strong support.and see the market move in a tight rage from here on. The price structure of this move is very weak so don't expect any further downside movement.

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Update 2: As expected we have start consolidating as per my projection from Figure 2(green box). And price structure suggest further consolidation between 0.9250 support zone and 0.9450 resistance zone.

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Update 3: We're now somewhere around the middle box (see Figure 2 green box) which should provide some resistance. Although we have already hit our target as per my analysis we should expect further consolidation. The next big resistance level remains 0.9500 which is an important psychological level, and break above that level can invalidate my analysis

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Update 4: We're still within that green box(see Figure 2) and between 0.9500 resistance level and 0.93 support level. Until one of this two level gives up expect further consolidation. But as per my analysis 0.9300 level should hold and see the market go up

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Update 5: Unfortunately we broke 0.9300 round number and support level which currently makes this pair looks very bearish and I'm not sure if there is enough time to gain momentum back to the upside. In order for that to happen we need here a quick bounce and a regain of the 0.9300 level as soon as possible.

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NZD/CAD Ready for The Final Spike Up

NZD/CAD has been moving in an uptrend since beginning of the summer and based on Elliott Wave it seems is taking shape of an five wave sequence. Currently we are in the final stage of completing wave number 4. According to Elliott Wave the wave number 4 is a corrective wave and thus is formed by a 3 wave sequence. We already completed that and next step is for a final spike up to complete the bigger 5 wave cycle. (see Figure 1).
Also if we look closely to the recent market action we can see that…
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shanziester avatar

very nice analyis

shanziester avatar

analysis**

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Update 1:Although we broke above 0.8780 the market didn't close strong enough to keep the upside momentum going. We should see the market turn back inside the range and close below 0.8780 and become resistance again

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Update 2:It seems the break above 0.8800 resistance level was a false breakout as we turned back into the 0.8560-0.8780 ranging zone. It seems that wave 4 has not been completed and instead of an ABC correction it may form a zig-zag pattern which in turn suggest the market will stay in this range zone for an extended period of time.

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Final Update: Target has been hit as we're just 16 pips away from the ideal 0.8768 target. We had 2 strong rejection from the strong 0.8800 resistance level which has capped the upside movement. As expected based on Elliot Wave analysis wave 4 has been developing in quite a wide range. My forecast was very accurate on this pair.

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