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Trades Update

Daytrader21 Posted 11 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #NZD/USD #USD/NOK
My current positions are both on the US Dollar long side but I've choose to play this view with some crosses and a commodity currency. In this respect I'm long USD/NOK looking for another marginal new high and I'm also short NZD/USD which has quite a clear structure and point towards more dollar strength.
Mondays are usually very bad at least for my trading so I need to be very careful on how I mange this positions. Usually the market start moving more with my rythme from Tuesday so playing defe…
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Kiwi COT Extreme

Daytrader21 Posted 15 July as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6813, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Cot #NZD/USD #Kiwi #Range #Support Resistance
NZD/USD has broken key support after support level and it seems now that the bearish trend is already oversold. We can't rule ot another retest of the big round number 0.6500 before going up again. The COT report is already warning us that a reversal or at least a bounce should happen because during this last leg down the commercials have become net buyers and they have been accumulating a lot of contracts as the COT report has been moving to extreme levels again (see Figure 1[/…
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Daytrader21 19 July

Update 1: We had another wave of selling pressure this past week and kiwi found support at big round number 0.6500 which I think will produce a bounce. Not only the seasonality points for a bounce but also the technicals and the COT data. First level of resistance stands at 0.6650

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Daytrader21 26 July

Update 2. The market has finally found some support at big  round number 0.6500 and we saw 2 rally to push higher making each time HH and LH  which suggest we're under accumulation conditions. This is good for my forecast and coming week we should see another attempt towards 0.6680 and ultimately a break above previous week high for more upside pressure

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Daytrader21 1 Aug.

Update 3: Unfortunately we have sold of and erased previous rally towards 0.6700. The market structure still favors the bulls as we're still above key support level and round number 0.6500 which should hold for now and see a bounce. First level of support remain previous week's high at 0.6730

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Daytrader21 9 Aug.

Update 4: Kiwi has posted 3 consecutive weeks of price gains and the psychological number 0.6500 is holding up the price quite well and as per my predictions we should see further upside in coming weeks. Next week we should retest and break previous week high at 0.6740, however we'll need a weekly  closing above that figure for further upside.

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Daytrader21 15 Aug.

Update 5: We're back at around the big figure and support level 0.6500. since we couldn't close below this figure the bulls are still in control. First level of resistance comes in at 0.6620 , a break and a close above this figure should see more upside ahead

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Kiwi Calling The Bottom

Daytrader21 Posted 3 July  in #Trader's blog #NZD/USD #Bottom #Kiwi #Seasonality #Cot Report
Two days ago in my recent webinar I've been calling out the possibility of a bottom in kiwi. I'm not expecting a full reversal just a rally inside a bearish trend or a correction as nothing goes up or down in a straight line. Even last month I've been warning that we need to prepare for a bounce but also highlighting that timing the bounce is key, you can read what I had to say back then here: NZ Dollar COT Extreme
Figure 1: NZD/USD Seasonality

The reason why I've…
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July FX Seasonality Patterns

Daytrader21 Posted 1 July  in #Trader's blog #GBP #Patterns #Dollar Index #NZD/USD #Seasonality #Cot Report
Since a new month has started, the best way to asserts the probability of where the market is likely to be heading in this month is for us to look at the seasonality patterns. The seasonality cycles will bring in a new dimension in which you can analyse the market. Seasonality are a predictable change in price that repeats every day, week, month, year at the same period in time.
You can find more details how this seasonal patterns affect the exchange rate and more importantly how to correctly us…
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Expeaan 1 July

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Daytrader21 1 July

Expeaan Thanks for the nutritive lessons:)

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NZD/USD COT Report

Daytrader21 Posted 31 May as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7132, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Trendline #NZD/USD #Nzdusd #Psychological Number #Support And Resistance #Cot Report #Open Interest
NZD/USD has broken key support level at 0.7200 which held the price since beginning of the year and it seems now that the bearish trend is ready to resume. First we also need a retest of the broken support which now is expected to act as resistance. We also have confluence if we draw and connect all the high from 0.7750 high, we have a nice trend line which should act as resistance.
Major Levels to watch:
[list][/list]…
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Daytrader21 5 June

Update 1: The market has not managed to break below key support level and big round number 0.7000 but we neither where able to retest the previous broken support level at 0.7250 which as based on my prediction should happen before the downtrend resume

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Daytrader21 14 June

Update 2: This week the COT has continue to widen again and although technically we broke below key support level and round number 0.7000 a reversal is still in place. Next key support level remains at 0.6900 which is a multi year pivot level.

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Daytrader21 19 June

Update 3: Right now the market is trading near an very big inflection zone between 0.6900-0.6885 which should produce a bounce as the COT extreme is still widening suggesting a reversal may come soon. However we still need a break above the big figure 0.7000 in order to see more upside momentum

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NZD/USD Bearish Flag (part 2)

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Mar. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6885, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/USD #Retracement #Seasonality #Projection #Bearish Flag
This is a continuation post from 2 months ago forecast which has not yet reached the final target projected of the bearish flag formation posted on the weekly chart. NZD/USD is posting and interesting bearish flag pattern on the weekly chart which is basically a continuation move. After we failed to make another high above 0.8850 during the last summer we have sold of without any kind of retracement however this doesn't mean we should have a pullback, quite contrary this bearish flag is absorbin…
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Daytrader21 21 Mar.

Update 1: Due to the high volatility environment we have now retested the big resistance level of 0.7500. The seasonality pattern is working well so far as we should have expected some kind of traction and upside momentum for kiwi this month but by the end of the month we should see this pair trading lower.

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Daytrader21 28 Mar.

Update 2: This corrective move is already showing signs of exhaustion as on the weekly chart we have a bearish PB which is a reversal pattern. Once we manage to break and close below 0.7500 big round number we should expect the down trend to resume. Next week resistance should be at 0.7600 round number and left eye of the PB

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Weekly Recap

Daytrader21 Updated 7 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Nfp #EUR/JPY #AUD/NZD #Fed #NZD/USD #Qe Programme

Interesting week we had with big developments in the market on the one hand ECB came out with it's QE programme details and on the other hand the US job report has confirmed once again the US labor market is on strong growth path, which may signal that the first rate hike can happen sooner rather than later. See here my previous blog post as why I was expecting NFP figures to beat market expectation: [url=https://www.dukascopy.com/tradercontest/?action=post-read&post…
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NZD/USD Bearish Flag

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Jan. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7513, Date: 2nd of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/USD #Retracement #Projection #Bearish Flag
NZD/USD is posting and interesting bearish flag pattern on the weekly chart which is basically a continuation move. After we failed to make another high above 0.8850 during the last summer we have sold of without any kind of retracement however this doesn't mean we should have a pullback, quite contrary this bearish flag is absorbing all the bids. Usually you measure the length of previous sell off and project that move to the downside in order to find the next leg target.
If we project the prev…
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Daytrader21 24 Jan.

Update 1: As expected the bearish flag broke to the downside and momentum is accelerating taking us below 0.7500 big round number. But I'm not expecting this move to be smooth and there is plenty of support all the way down to 0.7400 and 0.7300 where we can see a re-bounce back towards the big round number 0.7500

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Daytrader21 14 Feb.

Update 2: As expected the bearish flag has been working perfectly, however it seems I've been wrong on the speed of the move. Once we broke that pattern the momentum has started picking up to the downside and we broke key support and big round number 0.7500 which was also my target. Based on Elliot Wave we may see kiwi retracing all the way up and retesting the 0.7600 level which is the breakout candle of the bearish flag.

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Daytrader21 22 Feb.

Update 3: As expected and as per my previous update we indeed continued to retrace further up. The wave sequence from 0.7170 low suggest we should see another marginal high at 1.7580 before to continue down again and complete a WXY type of retracement.

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Daytrader21 28 Feb.

Update 4: As expected we indeed had a new marginal high at 0.7580 and we had a strong rejection. For Monday we should expect the Friday's high to provide a great resistance zone and we can see kiwi resuming it's down trend. There is plenty of time to reach our target in the first hours of the new session.

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Daytrader21 2 Mar.

Update 5: We're now at support 0.7515 level(see Figure attached) right ahead of the big round number 0.7500 which should provide good support zone for the entire day, as I'm not expecting any breakout during today. Also to the upside we have another minor resistance level of 0.7540 which should not be broken. Usually kiwi only starts breaking either direction only after the New York session comes in, until that happens we should expect further consolidation. 

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NZD/USD Looking Beyond the Carry Trade

Daytrader21 Posted 14 Sep. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.8042, Date: 3rd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #NZD/USD #Channel #Range #Boxes #H S Pattern
Since current price action of NZD/USD has been greatly influenced by the carry trade this time we're going to look on just the technicals. On the weekly chart (see Figure 1)we can see that starting from around last year NZD/USD has start developing an upward channel which we're currently testing the downward trend-line which will provide a good support at around the 0.8000 big psychological level. Also we can see that we may be developing a H&S pattern on the weekly chart which it may not work b…
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Daytrader21 11 Oct.

Update 1: As expected 0.7700 is a strong support level which will produce a bounce towards the round number 0.8000 in coming weeks as on the daily chart this sell off looks oversold. For next week we have resistance at 0.7930 and support at 0.7750.

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Daytrader21 19 Oct.

Update 2: Over the last 2 weeks we have been moving in a wide range between 0.7700 support level and 0.8000 resistance level. This base that we have develop will provide the momentum for the next up leg. For next week we have support at 0.7840 and resistance at the big round number 0.8000. Only a break and a close above 0.8000 will means the bulls are back in control until than expect further consolidation.

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Daytrader21 25 Oct.

Update 3. Kiwi is completing a double zig-zag pattern in this range from 0.8800 resistance level to 0.7700 support level. But in order to complete wave Y we need another push up towards 0.8800 as the sell of from that level is only wave b of Y and we need another rally to complete wave c of Y

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Daytrader21 29 Oct.

Update 4: As expected we're now in wave c of Y and current rally comes in line perfectly with my last update.  Still this rally is not yet completed until we retest the big round number 0.8800. In order for this analysis to be correct the market should not go below the 0.7900 level.

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NZD/USD Looking Beyond the Carry Trade

Daytrader21  in #Technical analysis #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Carry Trade #NZD/USD #Elliott Wave #Upward Channel
For many of you who are constantly following my blog already know that I'm holding a long kiwi position and even despite recent sell of I still hold this position and you can find the full reasons behind this trade by reading my last article here: Carry Trade Returns Here is another blog post back from April: RBNZ The Most Hawkish CB
In this blog we're going to look beyond the carry trade and have a look at …
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VikaChechenkova 2 Aug.

it's so difficult!))

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