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NonFarm Payroll in twhahe spotlight

Daytrader21 Posted 6 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Nfp
Today is the "D" day in the forex market as we all know what a NFP day can do especially in the fx market. Although market expectation see a rebound in the number of jobs created during the month of October I don't see much scope for a lot of dollar strength. Don't get me wrong I do see some dollar strength if the NFP report is good but what I'm trying to say is that the dollar strength can be limited.
Taking in consideration that I'm down 40% of my initial account balance I think I'll stay out …
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First Week After NFP Report

Daytrader21 Posted 6 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #Nfp #Drawdown
Usually the first week after each NFP report is quite important for the overall direction in the FX market as the trends that start during this week will dictate the direction for the entire month unless there are other major forces at work that can disturb the trend. So, in this regard is not wise to ignore this one aspect of the FX market.
My account balance has started to recover after a draw-down of 70%, right now my balance stands somewhere around $67k. Main objective for this coming week w…
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Berkeley avatar
Berkeley 7 Sep.

yeah, plenty of time! wish ya a speedy recovery ;)

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Daytrader21 7 Sep.

wish you the same

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NFP - Downplaying Fed Rate Hike

Daytrader21 Posted 4 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #Nfp #Fed #Interest Rate
Now that the NFP report has come out of line with market expectation the Fed rate hike expectation has also been downgraded, which means that we can forget the rate hike at this month FOMC meeting. This is also in line with my own expectation as I think FED is waiting for the December meeting. This is Deja Vu, as FED has been following the same steps before starting to taper and they start the tapering process in Dec 2014 so the first rate hike in Dec 2015 is 100% in cards unless it's the end of…
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Preparing the Week Ahead

Daytrader21 Posted 2 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #USD #Nfp #Summer Trading
Since we're still under summer trading condition my expectations for the coming week are for further range activity with the major currency pairs. Maybe NFP can give us a directional bias for this entire month and we can see where the USD wanna go. Even though in the long term I'm still bullish the dollar in the short-medium term I play the market both ways as so far I don't see any clear sign that the US dollar wants to resume the upward trend.
Maybe September will be the catalyst for the dolla…
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4 Comments
WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 2 Aug.

You may be right with the upcoming week being slow- thanks for cooling us down:)

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WallStreet6 2 Aug.

I just can't wait to my hands on some pips:)

Berkeley avatar
Berkeley 2 Aug.

Good luck buddy ;)

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Daytrader21 3 Aug.

WallStreet6 keep in mind I might be wrong:)) Berkeley Nice to see you buddy, good luck to you as well

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NFP - The State of US Labor Market

Daytrader21 Updated 2 July  in #Trader's blog #Nfp #Fed #Interest Rate #Unemployment Rate #Labor Market #4Th Of July
Due to the 4th of July US holiday, the NFP report will be release 1 day earlier and not the usual first Friday of the month.
The market forecast for today's reading has quite a big rage starting from as low as 231k to as high as 270k down from previous reading of 280k. The only thing stable and where there is a consensus is for the unemployment rate to drop from 5.4% down from 5.5%.
Despite the recent global turmoil the US job market is quite strong as over the past months we had 15th times rea…
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Preparing The Week Ahead

Daytrader21 Updated 3 May  in #Trader's blog #Nfp #Volatility #Rba #Cable #Crash #Correction #Seasonality #Risk Events #Grexit

The coming week is going to be more important than you may think, not only because there are many risk events on the doc that can spur volatility but also because it can mark the turn in the equity market. Don't call me wrong because I'm not calling a crash just a major correction. Since this can be a major topic on itself I'm not going to talk about it here as there are many details that need to be covered. However I'm just going to give you a major hint and I would recommend to watch ES react…
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fxsurprise8 3 May

great article. Where do you find up to date probabilities for rates?

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Daytrader21 3 May

fxsurprise8 You would have to look at bond yields. Look at the 12 month bill  yielding 1.930%, cash rates are at 2.25% -->big money saying 25 bps cut on Tuesday. Here is a free website where you can look at yields (see above), or you can find the data in excel and construct your charts there. I hope it helps. 

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fxsurprise8 3 May

ah thanks a lot

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CommunitySupport 4 May

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RBA Set to Cut Rates

Daytrader21 Posted 6 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Nfp #Aussie #Rba #Interest Rates #Inter Banking Futures Rates #Iron Ore
First major event risk of the week is set to be RBA interest rate decision. Last time I was correctly predicting a no move from RBZ, basing my decision on the inter banking futures rates which have been predicted 24 of the last 25 RBA decisions correctly. The OIS market is pricing in an 80% chance of a cut in April.
You can read more about it here: RBA Keeps Rates on Hold
When you have an indicator with such a high level of accuracy it's undoubtedly mistakenly to ignore it. Both the, aussie 9…
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The State of US Labor Market

Daytrader21 Posted 3 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Nfp #Inflation #Unemployment #Fed #Liquidity #Seasonality Pattern #Us Labor Market
Going into today's NFP release there is a rumors going on around the markets that NFP figures will be well below consensus. Over the past few months March payrolls have missed on 6 of the last 7 reports this shows a strong seasonality pattern. Since FED has removed "patience" from their
statement the market is more sensitive to the job report as market participants will beat on a rate hike sooner/later depending if the figures comes strong/weaker.
We have to keep in mind that today is holida…
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Weekly Recap

Daytrader21 Updated 7 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Nfp #EUR/JPY #AUD/NZD #Fed #NZD/USD #Qe Programme

Interesting week we had with big developments in the market on the one hand ECB came out with it's QE programme details and on the other hand the US job report has confirmed once again the US labor market is on strong growth path, which may signal that the first rate hike can happen sooner rather than later. See here my previous blog post as why I was expecting NFP figures to beat market expectation: [url=https://www.dukascopy.com/tradercontest/?action=post-read&post…
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NFP - The State of US Labor Market

Daytrader21 Posted 6 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Nfp #EUR/USD #Interest Rates #Fed #Seasonality #Labor Market
The dollar strength has been well supported recently and this is due mainly because of the Fed rate expectations. However this week the market will focus again on the US labor figures which based on market expectation we should see further improvement in the labor market.
I'm expecting that February payrolls will surprise positively due to the seasonality tendencies which shows the average February NFP seasonal adjustment over the past decade to 1.5M jobs(see Figure
1). The market will alwa…
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4 Comments
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CommunitySupport 6 Mar.

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VictoriaVika 14 Mar.

So many repost you have, congrats, friend :)

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CommunitySupport 16 Mar.

yes, he is a top blogger)

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Daytrader21 16 Mar.

VictoriaVika Thanks:) CommunitySupport Thx, I'm trying my best:)

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