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USD/JPY grinding higher

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 121.3800, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Yen #USD/JPY #Fomc #Correction #Range #Bullish Bias #Resistance Zone #Pause
Monthly chart:
The pair still appears to be taking a consolidative pause in a rally towards strong resistance zone, which consists of:
1. Trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998.
2. 23.6% retracement of the November 1982 to October 2011 decline.
3. 2007 high at 124.14.
On the downside, first major support is seen at 200 month SMA and then 105 level.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in December 2014, the pair has been consolidating in 115.50 - 121.85…
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al_dcdemo 18 Apr.

UPDATE 5: As the moves were (again) mostly USD based, price action in the pair was similar to that of the other major pairs. Exception was Monday when Harada's remark about Yen PPP level sent the pair tumbling almost 100 pips. The pair closed below 20, 50 and 100 DMA but remained above April 3 low at 118.72. Weekly candle looks bearish, but the pair didn't manage to close below previous week's low.

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al_dcdemo 19 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Besides Unemployment Claims on Thursday and Core Durable Goods Orders on Friday, which may well be market moving, there's few other low impact economic data releases in the week ahead. Focus will likely be on technicals and whether the pair will break below April 3 (118.72) and March 26 (118.33) lows. If that materializes, there's not a lot in the way of support until 5-month range bottom near 115.50.

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al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 7: The pair remained range-bound in the past week, it surged on the first three trading days and then gave it all back on Thursday and Friday. Current trading range is tight (about 200 pips) and centered on 20, 50 and 100 DMA, but the pair is still contained in broader 5-month range (115.50 - 122.00). Weekly candle signals indecision but the pair made lower high and closed below the three moving averages, so technical picture looks slightly bearish.

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al_dcdemo 26 Apr.

UPDATE 8: There are three events in the week ahead that have significant potential to move the pair: Advance GDP q/q and FOMC Statement on Wednesday and BOJ meeting (Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference) on Thursday. No change is expected from the BOJ, while US GDP has potential to disappoint and FOMC might strike dovish tones. If 118.25 - 118.50 support goes, then the pair will be testing 116.80 - 117.00 quickly, before 200 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 26 Apr.

UPDATE 8: There are three events in the week ahead that have significant potential to move the pair: Advance GDP q/q and FOMC Statement on Wednesday and BOJ meeting (Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference) on Thursday. No change is expected from the BOJ, while US GDP has potential to disappoint and FOMC might strike dovish tones. If 118.25 - 118.50 support goes, then the pair will be testing 116.80 - 117.00 quickly and then 200 DMA.

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Aussie tests lower end of the range

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #Aussie #Momentum #Pause #Pboc #Cycle Low
Despite dovish comments from PBOC governor Zhou over the weekend, Aussie fell more than 100 pips yesterday. The decline stalled on the trendline that was broken last Friday, but the momentum of the move suggests that this may be just a temporary pause before further falls. Weekly Support 2 at 0.7618 and 0.76 level should lend it some support before cycle low at 0.7560.
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USD/JPY to rise slowly

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 121.0900, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Yen #USD/JPY #Rally #Correction #Range #Resistance Zone #Pause #Slower Pace #Price Channel
Monthly chart:
The pair appears to be making a bit of a pause in a rally towards strong resistance zone, which consists of:
1. Trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998.
2. 23.6% retracement of the November 1982 to October 2011 decline.
3. 2007 high at 124.14.
On the downside, the first major support is 200 month SMA and then 105 level.
Weekly chart:
After 600+ pip correction in December 2014, the pair has been consolidating in 115.50 - 121.85 range, though most…
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al_dcdemo 15 Mar.

UPDATE 2: Monday was the day when the pair moved the most. It managed to break above December 2014 cycle high at 121.84, but was rejected and 100 pip pullback ensued. It went sideways from there with another attempt to break lower on Thursday, before settling mid-range to end the week. Where it will go from here will depend mostly on next week's FOMC meeting, but the most likely direction is still up.

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al_dcdemo 21 Mar.

UPDATE 3: The pair started the week in a very tight (less than 50 pip) range and then exploded lower on Wednesday, but the daily range was the smallest among major pairs. In subsequent action, the pair retested pre-FOMC range and then declined 130 pips to close the week just above 120 level. 50 DMA at 119.32 and 100 DMA at 119.18 will act as first strong support levels, should the pair continue to slide.

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 4: Price action in the pair was mostly sideways, with exception of Thursday when it took out stops below 100 DMA but then quickly snapped back to slowly declining range. However, it closed the week below both 50 and 100 DMA, which is strong bearish signal. With month-end, quarter-end (plus fiscal-year-end in Japan) and Good Friday holiday next week, we could be in for some volatile moves on lower liquidity.

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foreignexchange 1 Apr.

Good job

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al_dcdemo 1 Apr.

Thanks! It's 90 pips from the target at the moment, which is fairly good.

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USD/JPY may well continue to linger around current levels

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Jan. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 119.6800, Date: 2nd of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Yen #USD/JPY #Rally #Correction #Range #Resistance Zone #Pause #Monthly Resistance Zone #Slower Pace
Monthly chart:
The pair appears to be making a bit of a pause in a rally towards strong resistance zone, which consists of:
1. Trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998.
2. 23.6% retracement of the November 1982 to October 2011 decline.
3. 2007 high at 124.14.
On the downside, the first major support is 200 month SMA and then 105 level.
Weekly chart:
After 600+ pip correction in December 2014, the pair has been contained in 115.50 - 121.85 range. It appears to be…
Read full story
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10 Comments
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al_dcdemo 28 Feb.

The pair ended the week with nice 60 pip gain, but it was not easy as there were two turnarounds. First one came after Yellen testimony wasn't as hawkish as market expected, and the pair sold off more than 100 pips in response. The second one came after solid CPI and GDP reports. Immediate resistance (trendline off December 8 2014 and February 12 highs) is now seen near 120 and then the next one between 120.50 and 120.75. On the downside, 50 DMA should provide initial support.

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WallStreet6 28 Feb.

It seems to be on the upside, but on Monday it may still get closer to the target.

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al_dcdemo 1 Mar.

Looking at Dukascopy online charts, it closed just below the target at 119.57. Would love a quiet, ranging start to the week. :)

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 2 Mar.

Great analysis, great compatibility with the forecast, detailed Update 
congratulations  : )

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2 Mar.

Thanks! This one turned out really well, as the pair behaved (almost) in the same way as expected :)

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