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Market Predisposed to Extend the Range

Daytrader21 Posted 3 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Fx Market #Range
Currently there are no sign that the FX market is anywhere near to resume the bigger macro trend and in that case I go with the assumption that the market as a whole is more predisposed to extend current range zone through the last two months of the year. In this regard I guess it's best to adjust you strategy and best way to profit from this environment is fade any move into important support/resistance levels.
I guess that the commodity currencies will be a better option to trade under this ci…
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Market Predisposed to Extend the Range

Daytrader21 Posted 3 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Fx Market #Range
Currently there are no sign that the FX market is anywhere near to resume the bigger macro trend and in that case I go with the assumption that the market as a whole is more predisposed to extend current range zone through the last two months of the year. In this regard I guess it's best to adjust you strategy and best way to profit from this environment is fade any move into important support/resistance levels.
I guess that the commodity currencies will be a better option to trade under this ci…
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Ranging Market - FX Advice

Daytrader21 Posted 20 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Fx Market #Range
So far this is a relative quiet week in the FX world and it seems that current environment will persist for some time. But we have to keep in mind that usually after small ranges the markets will post some bigger ranges and expend so this is also a signal of what may be ahead of us. Once we'll have those breakouts I honestly think that it will not be wise to fade them but rather to go with the flow.
We just need some catalyst to trigger the move and we already know that the CB monetary policy ha…
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EUR/USD Range Activity

Daytrader21 Posted 9 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #Eurusd #Range
This is quite annoying as EUR/USD price is flat on the week as it has barely moved trading for the most part inside a very narrow rage without any clear direction. In the short-term the risk is for an upside movement as September rate hikes are not on the table anymore. I think that EUR/USD won't move that much ahead of next week's FOMC so we should be patience with this trade.
Best Regards,
Daytrader21
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Kiwi COT Extreme

Daytrader21 Posted 15 July as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6813, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Cot #NZD/USD #Kiwi #Range #Support Resistance
NZD/USD has broken key support after support level and it seems now that the bearish trend is already oversold. We can't rule ot another retest of the big round number 0.6500 before going up again. The COT report is already warning us that a reversal or at least a bounce should happen because during this last leg down the commercials have become net buyers and they have been accumulating a lot of contracts as the COT report has been moving to extreme levels again (see Figure 1[/…
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Daytrader21 19 July

Update 1: We had another wave of selling pressure this past week and kiwi found support at big round number 0.6500 which I think will produce a bounce. Not only the seasonality points for a bounce but also the technicals and the COT data. First level of resistance stands at 0.6650

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Daytrader21 26 July

Update 2. The market has finally found some support at big  round number 0.6500 and we saw 2 rally to push higher making each time HH and LH  which suggest we're under accumulation conditions. This is good for my forecast and coming week we should see another attempt towards 0.6680 and ultimately a break above previous week high for more upside pressure

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Daytrader21 1 Aug.

Update 3: Unfortunately we have sold of and erased previous rally towards 0.6700. The market structure still favors the bulls as we're still above key support level and round number 0.6500 which should hold for now and see a bounce. First level of support remain previous week's high at 0.6730

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Daytrader21 9 Aug.

Update 4: Kiwi has posted 3 consecutive weeks of price gains and the psychological number 0.6500 is holding up the price quite well and as per my predictions we should see further upside in coming weeks. Next week we should retest and break previous week high at 0.6740, however we'll need a weekly  closing above that figure for further upside.

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Daytrader21 15 Aug.

Update 5: We're back at around the big figure and support level 0.6500. since we couldn't close below this figure the bulls are still in control. First level of resistance comes in at 0.6620 , a break and a close above this figure should see more upside ahead

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USD/CAD Trapped Between Two Round Numbers

Daytrader21 Posted 30 June as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2388, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Range #Round Number #Seasonality Cycle #Psychological Numbers
Since the summer trading has begin the market has started moving inside some consolidation as the trading activity has chased away. We can tell that the current range is between two big round figures and psychological numbers: 1.2500 current top of the range and resistance and 1.2000 current bottom of the range and support level(see Figure 1).
Important level to watch:
  • 1.2000 = Support, Big round number and psychological numbers;
…
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Daytrader21 10 July

Update 1: So far USD/CAD has not been following the seasonality pattern and instead we had another run towards previous swing high at 1.2700. However taking in consideration the seasonal cycle we may assume there is less upside to follow and we should expect some retracement.

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EUR/USD Prolonged Range Trading

Daytrader21 Posted 23 June  in #Trader's blog #EUR/USD #Greece #Range #Psychological Number #Brussels
Despite the Greek drama and the ongoing negotiation between Brussels and Greece government, EUR/USD exchange rate have been very stable and we have been trading inside a very frustrating range without any clear direction. It seems the market is not willing to neither resume the bearish trend nor to break higher and have a deeper correction.
Welcome to the summer range trading conditions when usually volatility subside and trading chase away as traders and hedge fund managers are taking a pause d…
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AUD/USD Range Mode

Daytrader21 Posted 30 May as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7642, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Audusd #AUD/USD #Bearish #Head And Shoulders Pattern #Range #Range Box
Since beginning of the year aussie has been trading in a big range zone with the big round number and psychological figure 0.7500 acting as support and 0.8000 another big round number acting as resistance. It also may be the case we're forming a head and shoulders pattern(see Figure 1) in which case we should expect another rally towards 0.7800 level to form the right shoulder.
Major Levels to watch:
[list][/list]…
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Daytrader21 14 June

Update 1: Aussie has been moving over the past week in a very tight range between 0.7800 resistance level and 0.7600 support level. Next week we should expect another break higher above 0.7800 and find resistance at 0.7850 before going back down.

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Daytrader21 19 June

Update 2: We have been trading inside a very narrow range between 0.7600 support level and 0.7850 resistance level. As long as this level are in place we should see more consolidation. Because of the summer range trading conditions there is a high probability we wont see any major moves

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Daytrader21 26 June

Update 3: Right now we're retesting the 0.7650 level which is also my target. There is still room to retest the 0.7600 round number before to react from this support level. The bias remains that in for the last 2 days of the month the market to trade between 0.7600 and 0.7700 resistance level.

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Daytrader21 29 June

Update 4: Now that we retested the key support level 0.7600 as per my previous update we got bounce and we are trading right now into 0.7700 which should act as resistance. For more downside we need an hourly close below 0.7690

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EUR/AUD Consolidation mode

Daytrader21 Posted 15 May as Analysis on EUR/AUD, Target: 1.3786, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Breakout #Consolidation #Liquidity #EUR/AUD #Range #Momentum
Over the last year EUR/AUD has been moving from large ranging zones to small ranging zones, moving back and forth between this consolidation phases. Right now the current established range is between 1.4400 resistance level and 1.4000 big round number and psychological number. Taking in consideration that we're approaching the summer time whee liquidity usually is low and thus the activity level is very low we should expect the market to move in tight range zones and this is…
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Daytrader21 16 May

Update 1: The market is still inside a wide range and has resistance at 1.4350 and support stands at big round number 1.4000. For the next week we should see the market once again trying to retest the low.

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Daytrader21 22 May

Update 2: We're still consolidating between 1.3900 support zone and 1.4350 resistance level which basically form a range trading box. We should see further consolidation into next week between this 2 extreme levels. Another level we should keep an eye on is the middle of the box which comes at 1.4150

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EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Cycle Completed

Daytrader21 Posted 15 May as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 133.9600, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/JPY #Liquidity #Elliot Wave #Range #Support And Resistance
Based on the Elliott Wave analysis EUR/JPY has completed a five wave sequence from the 2012 bottom and right now we're in a corrective process which should keep this pair in a wide range. For the time being the 136.00 level and pivot point should act as support and because we're entering the summer time period where liquidity is generally low and usually the market is moving in a tight range we should expect the market stay inside the 136.00-130.00 range.
Major Levels to …
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Daytrader21 16 May

Update 1: The level 136.50 is still holding the market for going up as expected and next week we should see a pull-back inside the range. Support stands at 134.00 current bottom of range box. The market is still in consolidation and us such look for more range bound.

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Daytrader21 22 May

Update 2: The market is moving as per my plan and we're still trading inside the range box. Key level to keep in mind for next week are 133.00 bottom of current range and also support level and the middle of the range which comes at around 135.50 which is also a pivot point.

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Daytrader21 29 May

Update 3: As expected from my last week update the 133.00 level has acted as support and we had a strong rally and we're heading for a retest of current box top which comes at around 137.00 which should act as resistance and send price lower again. First level of support for next week comes at the big figure 135.00

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Daytrader21 14 June

Update 4: Unfortunately we broke higher and right now the next range box is about to be established above 136.50 level. We have to wait and see if current high at 141.00 will hold or not in order to validate my forecast or not

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