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CHFJPY Range Box Effect

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Nov. as Analysis on CHF/JPY, Target: 119.1000, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CHF/JPY #Psychological Number #Range Box
CHF/JPY has been moving slowly from one range box to another one and right now we're at the point of just breaking out of the current narrow range box that has been established between 123.40 top of the range and 121.20 bottom of the range. A break below this level should open up the range towards next big target of 120.00 which is a big psychological number and at the same time around this level we had our last swing low point back in March 2015.

Major Levels to watch:
[list][/list]…
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Daytrader21 29 Nov.

Update 2: As expected we broke below the big psychological figure 120.00 which for the time being can act as resistance and more downside should be followed. Next level of support came at 118.00 from where we should expect a bounce

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Daytrader21 14 Dec.

Update 3: Even though we broke higher and we're back inside the range the price structure looks corrective and we should see a retest of the big psychological number 120.00. Resistance stands at 123.00 while the first level of support for this week stands at 121.80, we need a daily close below this level for further downside

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Daytrader21 20 Dec.

Update 4: We broke to the downside current support level at 122.50 and managed to close below it, which will warn us for more downside. There is not much support to the downside until we hit the big psychological number 120.00 and the bearish trend still looks intact.

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Daytrader21 27 Dec.

Update 5: As expected we continue to push lower and close below the 122.50 support level. Next support level is the big round number 120.00 which needs to be broken in order to see more downside pressure coming in the market. Now the first level of resistance has become the previous support level at 122.50

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Daytrader21 1 Jan.

Update 6: As expected we continued to break down however we weren't able to break below the key psychological number 120.00. We're still almost 100 pips away from my target and the fact the we didn't close below this figure we may take a pause or even get a bounce from here.

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AUD/CHF Inside DownChannel

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Nov. as Analysis on AUD/CHF, Target: 0.7289, Date: 1st of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliott Wave #AUD/CHF #Range Box #Downchannel
On the daily chart we can see that since the SNB black swan event the market has been moving inside a downward channel (see Figure 1) which can also be a diagonal, and based on the Elliott Wave we should see a 5 wave move inside the channel before the market to decide on it's direction. Currently we're in the stage of developing the 4rd wave but first we'll need to hit the upward limit of this channel at around the big round number 0.7300 where a bounce lower should occur.
[…
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Daytrader21 1 Jan.

Update 6:As expected the 0.7150 level has been providing us a good support in previous week and we indeed started to rally. Right now we closed the week at only 1 pips distance from my forecast target of 0.7289. The ideal scenario is for a retest of previous broken swing high at 0.7250 and than a rebound and a retest of my target at 0.7289.

tdbatinkov avatar
tdbatinkov 1 Jan.

good analysis

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 1 Jan.

Great analysis, do you think that a retracement in the Oil forecast could facilitate with this pair some bullish speculation ?

WallStreetBlog avatar
WallStreetBlog 1 Jan.

Very interesting!!!

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 2 Jan.

Great anaysis!

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GBP/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis

Daytrader21 Posted 18 Oct. as Analysis on GBP/CHF, Target: 1.4771, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliott Wave #Snb #GBP/CHF #Psychological Number #Range Box
AfterSNB decided to drop the 1.2000 EUR/CHF floor the price action on CHF crosses has been distorted, however, we can still find a way to guide us through the current mess by simple using support and resistance level and the box trading ranges (see Figure 1). GBP/CHF as being a cross pair has a lot of tendency to consolidate and we can find more often it's moving inside this range boxes. Usually if we have this type of boxes on the left side of the chart, we can see how by s…
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Daytrader21 25 Oct.

Update 1: Since the market wasn't able to close above the big psychological number 1.5000 there is reason to believe it will act as resistance and next week we can expect a pullback. First level of support comes at 1.4850 from where the market can bounce

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Daytrader21 9 Nov.

Update 2: It seems that wave B has extended more than I was expecting but we can call it completed at 1.5350. Right now wave C is developing and we should see a break below the big psychological figure 1.5000. The next big level of support comes at 1.4600 where current sell-off should stop and wave C can be called completed.

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Daytrader21 15 Nov.

Update 3: If GBP/CHF doesn't start selling off right from the beginning of next week than I may be wrong on this trade. We need to break below 1.5150 in order to be able to see more downside and a possible reversal.

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GBP/CHF Range Boxing

Daytrader21 Posted 15 Aug. as Analysis on GBP/CHF, Target: 1.5098, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliott Wave #Snb #GBP/CHF #Support/resistance #Range Box
After SNB decided to drop the 1.2000 EUR/CHF floor the price action on CHF crosses has been distorted however we can still find a way to guide us through the current mess by simple using support and resistance level and the box trading ranges (see Figure 1). GBP/CHF as being a cross pair has a lot of tendency to consolidate and we can find more often it's moving inside this range boxes. Usually if we have this type of boxes on the left side of the chart we can see how by sim…
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Daytrader21 28 Aug.

Update 1: The sell off from the 1.5400 high is a normal reaction to complete wave 4 of 5. Right now based on Elliott Wave we should expect further consolidation before more upside. Support level stands at 1.4600 previous week's low

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Daytrader21 20 Sep.

Update 2: I think that wave 4 is now under the last stage before to finish the sequence. The low of 1.4595 represents wave A of wave 4 and we can expect in the short-term another break lower below 1.48800 to complete wave B and than another push higher.

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Daytrader21 28 Sep.

Update 3: We're still trapped within a narrow range between 1.4750 and with resistance at the 1.5110 level which is also the top of the current range box. Other major level we have to keep in mind is the big psychological number 1.5000 which can give us further insights into where to price will go

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Daytrader21 28 Sep.

Update 4: The path for the coming week is still to remain in this range consolidation zone but since we have already tested the bottom of the range it make sense to expect an upside reaction and a retest of the top of the range. In order for more upside we need a break of the big round number 1.5000.

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AUD/CHF Inside Down Channel

Daytrader21 Posted 15 July as Analysis on AUD/CHF, Target: 0.7055, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliott Wave #AUD/CHF #Channel #Range Box
On the daily chart we can see that since the SNB black swan event the market has been moving inside a downward channel (see Figure 1)which can also be a diagonal, and based on the Elliott Wave we should see a 5 wave move inside the channel before the market to decide on it's direction. Currently we're in the stage of developing the 3rd wave but first we'll need to hit the lower limit of this channel at around the big round number and psychological number 0.6800 where a bounc…
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Daytrader21 26 July

Update 2: After we retested the previous minor resistance at 0.7100 the market has been drifting lower as expected and we had another retest of the big round number 0.7000. since we couldn't mange to get below the round number this week we can expect a false breakout below it and than a quick recovery, at least that's the plan.

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Daytrader21 1 Aug.

Update 3: Once again the big round number 0.7000 has provided some good support in the past week. Still nothing much has happened and as per my forecast we should expect further range activity and for next week look again for 0.7000 to provide support and resistance stands at 0.7130

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Daytrader21 9 Aug.

Update 4: The momentum has pushed this pair to the upside and we stop at key resistance level 0.7300 which is also the top of previous range box and which I'm expecting to hold any upside movement. For coming week first level of support is the round number 0.7200

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Daytrader21 15 Aug.

Update 5: AS expected not only that the upside momentum has fade away but we also found support at 0.7200 level as per my previous update. Right now we can't exclude a retest of previous weeks high at 0.7280 before resuming down. First level of support comes in at 0.7130 level.

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Daytrader21 28 Aug.

Update 6: The sell of has been quite violent and once we broke below 0.6900 the momentum has start accelerating. However the momentum has started to pick up and we can see a "v" shape low

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CHFJPY Range Box Effect

Daytrader21 Posted 15 July as Analysis on CHF/JPY, Target: 132.8700, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Fibonacci Extension #CHF/JPY #Psychological Number #Range Box
CHF/JPY has been moving slowly from one range box to another one and right now we're just breaking out of the current range box with the range between 127.00 support level and 130.00 resistance zone(see Figure 1). Since we broke and manage to get a weekly close above this resistance level we may assume that we're heading higher where another range box should be established.
Major Levels to watch:
[list][/list]…
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Daytrader21 19 July

Update 1: For next week we need 129.00 level to hold up as support even though the market can go as low as 128.50-128.00 the analysis is still intact as long as we have a weekly close above 129.00.

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 27 July

Looking good buddy!

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Daytrader21 1 Aug.

Update 2: We're still inside the range box from 127.00 support level and 132.00 resistance zone and in coming weeks this should be the limits where this pair should be trading. Next week look for 128.00 to hold as support and with the first level of resistance at 129.60 right ahead of bog round number 130.00

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Daytrader21 9 Aug.

Update 3: Unfortunately we have broke again to the downside making this down leg quite strong and it may be the case that I'm wrong on this prediction. However if next week we manage to erase previous week losses it may prove this to be a false breakout, but we need a quick recovery.

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CAD/CHF Range Boxing

Daytrader21 Posted 15 July as Analysis on CAD/CHF, Target: 0.7293, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD/CHF #Psychological Number #Momentum #Range Box
We can see that for the most part cross pairs like CAD/CHF have the tendencies to move in consolidation box, which i call range box effect. Right now we're moving inside one of those range zone between 0.7500 round number and psychological number which is also the bottom of the current box and 0.7700 resistance and top of the box.
Major Levels to watch:
  • 0.7500 Big round number and psychological number and also support level.
…
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Daytrader21 15 Aug.

Update 5: As expected we continued to push lower and 0.7500 big round number provided a good resistance. Since we're trading well below that key figure we should expect further downside movement, however we need a close below 0.7400 for more downside pressure.

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Daytrader21 28 Aug.

Update 6: Even though we broke hard below key support 0.7330 level we're back up as we erased the last week sell off. Next week expect a retest of 0.7330 before any downside move to be seen

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Daytrader21 31 Aug.

Update 7: Since Mondays are typically quiet days the current range established between 0.7330 previous week high and resistance level, and the support round number 0.7200 should hold. We're currently just 28 pips away from my forecast target of 0.7293. In the short term it can go both ways however most likely the price pattern should retest previous swing high before to go down.

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Daytrader21 1 Sep.

Final Update: As per my previous update even though we did more than just to retest previous week's high at 0.7330, as we broke above it triggering the stops above and as expected this move didn't had strength as we moved back inside the range. The 0.7293 was also the middle of the current range zone and price gravitated towards that figure. This is quite an impressive forecast as it has 0% deviation.

My Forecast: 0.7293
Market Close at 12:00 GMT 1st of September: 0.7293
Deviation: 0% Deviation.

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 1 Sep.

Congratulation DT21 : )

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CAD/JPY Range Box Effect

Daytrader21 Posted 14 June as Analysis on CAD/JPY, Target: 102.9200, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliott Wave #CAD/JPY #Round Number #Range Box
CAD/JPY has been moving over the paste few years in a big range boxes and that's usually the case with a lot of pair crosses as this is their normal behavior. In Figure 1 we can see how this price action looks like. Usually when we enter in the territory of a new range boxes the new boxes that will form in the right side of the chart will use the middle of the range box from the left as the top and as the
bottom will use the middle of the box from beneath the price action where most likely there…
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Daytrader21 19 June

Update 1: Nothing mush has happened since my forecast we have moved inside a very narrow range between big round number 100 acting as support and 101.10 resistance level. Because of the summer trading conditions we should see further range action

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Daytrader21 26 June

Update 2: We're still inside the range as the market has kept moving between 99.50 support level and 101.00 resistance level. Until we break either of this two side we should expect further consolidation.

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AUD/JPY Strong Seasonality Pattern

Daytrader21 Posted 14 June as Analysis on AUD/JPY, Target: 98.3000, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/JPY #Seasonality #Support/resistance #Range Box
AUDJPY has been moving over the paste few years in a big range boxes and that's usually the case with a lot of pair crosses as this is their normal behavior. In Figure 1 we can see how this price action looks like. Usually when we enter in the territory of a new range boxes the new boxes that will form in the right side of the chart will use the middle of the range box from the left as the top and as the bottom will use the middle of the box from beneath the price action where most likely there …
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Daytrader21 19 June

Update 1: We're still moving inside the range box from Figure 1. Right now support stands at big figure 95.00.  We should continue moving inside this range zone for the most part in the coming weeks because of the summer trading conditions. Resistance stands at 97.00.

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Daytrader21 26 June

Update 2: The market it still reluctant to go higher and right now the 94.50 support level is retested. The fact that we couldn't break it and have a weekly close below it is a sign that we should see higher price into next week. Resistance stands at 96.30.

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GBP/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis

Daytrader21 Posted 14 June as Analysis on GBP/CHF, Target: 1.5026, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliott Wave #Snb #GBP/CHF #Support And Resistance #Range Box
After SNB decided to drop the 1.2000 EUR/CHF floor the price action on CHF crosses has been distorted however we can still find a way to guide us through the current mess by simple using support and resistance level and the box trading ranges (see Figure 1). GBP/CHF as being a cross pair has a lot of tendency to consolidate and we can find more often it's moving inside this range boxes. Usually if we have this type of boxes on the left side of the chart we can see how by simple using those boxes…
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Daytrader21 19 July

Update 4: As expected once we broke previous swing high the momentum has pushed up this pair right into my target and last week high was exactly my forecast target of 1.5026. Next week will be key as we can see another retest of 1.4900 where buyers should show up and see another retest of 1.5026.

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Daytrader21 26 July

Update 5: Since we broke above the 1.4800 which was the top of the previous range box, we should expect the next consolidation range to take place between 1.4800 support level and 1.5200 previous swing high level. 

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Daytrader21 1 Aug.

Update 6: Last Friday rally from below the brig round number 1.5000 has left behind thin liquidity bars which is a sign that we're going to see a fill of that gap and see a retest of the big round number and ultimately getting closer to our target at 1.5026. Monday on london session I see the scenario in the figure attached

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 1 Aug.

Here you have about 70 pips to go- could make it closer on Monday. Once again great job with the analysis!

Mariia avatar
Mariia 2 Aug.

great analysis

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