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Will USD/CAD bottom out in May?

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Apr. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2575, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Blow Off Top #Net Long Positioning #Relentless Pullback
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Loonie started the year with a sharp rally, topping out near 76.4% retracement of the 2002 - 2007 downtrend before reversing. The correction has bee…
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al_dcdemo 9 May

UPDATE 4: After the U.S. dollar reversal last week, Canadian dollar has been one of the currencies that have been hit the hardest. Raging wildfires in Alberta have definitely contributed to the rise in USD/CAD as oil prices remain supported. The pair added more than five cents since Tuesday and is currently trading just below a confluence of the April 18th high, 50 DMA and 1.30 big figure level. 1.30 - 1.3065 (2008 - 2009 highs) seems like a decent sell zone but with current momentum the pair may just slice through.

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al_dcdemo 13 May

UPDATE 5: Last few days felt a bit like a summer in the markets. There was no real trend while volatility declined, particularly in European currencies - Euro's weekly range being currently worth only about 90 pips. Loonie (~250 pips) and Yen (~230 pips) have fared somewhat better. I think UK EU referendum is playing a big part here. The uncertainty is causing many players to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in the current mode for a couple of weeks before things really start to kick off in the run-up to the big event.

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al_dcdemo 19 May

UPDATE 6: Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a big surprise. Rarely do this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September. The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. USD/CAD, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance at 1.30. GBP/USD on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Remain option firmly ahead in polls.

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al_dcdemo 23 May

UPDATE 7: Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were however decent for a Monday and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that. Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23rd).

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al_dcdemo 26 May

UPDATE 9: BOC held rates steady yesterday and didn't deliver a dovish statement as many in the market expected. Canadian dollar adjusted higher after the event while firming oil prices haven't been doing it any harm. Brent broke $50 overnight with WTI trading close to the big figure too. Loonie is back below 1.30 - 1.3065 area, now targeting 50 DMA. That looks like a good spot for a pullback support but, if oil extends above $50, a deeper pullback in the pair seems more likely. The aforementioned area shall remain a near-term sell zone for now.

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USD/CAD to trade higher in April

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Mar. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3575, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Blow Off Top #Relentless Pullback
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Loonie started the year with a sharp rally. It topped out near 76.4% retracement of the 2002 - 2007 downtrend (~1.4690) before reversing. The corre…
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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Major currencies opened the week mostly with small gaps against the U.S. dollar and then went pretty much sideways from there. Chinese CPI and PPI reports came in largely as expected. Yen did make a new marginal high (USD/JPY low) but then consolidated as well. U.S. Q1 earnings season starts after today's market close, so a bit of position squaring in risk sensitive pairs would not be that unexpected.

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al_dcdemo 13 Apr.

UPDATE 6: While commodity currencies already had a great few days, low-yielders such as euro, yen and franc remained supported up until today. Positive risk sentiment finally impacted them as well while the dollar strengthened across the board. U.S. (Core) Retail Sales and (Core) PPI reports and especially BOC meeting later in the day are definitely factors behind some position adjustments, particularly in commodity pairs which have become a bit extended, technically.

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al_dcdemo 14 Apr.

UPDATE 7: After relatively upbeat rate statement yesterday, Loonie hit the lowest level since last July. BOC governor Poloz was less upbeat at the press conference and the pair turned higher, helped by consolidating oil prices. The pair cleared stops below strong 1.28 - 1.285 band (Q1 2015 highs, July and October 2015 lows) and stalled about 70 pips ahead of 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2016 uptrend. 1.30 - 1.3065 zone (2008 and 2009 highs) shall now provide some resistance.

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al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

UPDATE 8: First quarter turmoil seems like a distant memory now as commodities and equity indices turned up. Central banks (ECB, BOJ, PBOC, RBNZ, ...) that acted or didn't act (Fed) earlier in the year are claiming some of the credit for the positive developments but the main driver seems to be the recovering oil. U.S. dollar indeed strengthened across the board last week but another theme was yen weakness and appreciation of risk sensitive currency pairs.

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al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 9: With the exceptions of the British pound and the Canadian dollar, which were the strongest currencies last week, the U.S. dollar opened with a small gap higher against major currencies. Interesting and potentially lively week ahead will feature Fed, BOJ and RBNZ meetings, U.S., E.U., U.K. and Canadian GDP reports, Australian quarterly inflation report and several central bank speakers.

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