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NZD/CAD Range Trade Boxes

NZD/CAD has been moving over the paste few years in a big range boxes and that's usually the case with a lot of pair crosses as this is their normal behavior. In Figure 1 we can see how this price action looks like. Usually when we enter in the territory of a new range boxes the new boxes that will form in the right side of the chart will use the middle of the range box from the left as the top and as the bottom will use the middle of the box from beneath the price action where most likely there…
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Update 3: The market has established another range box between 0.9600 resistance zone and 0.9350 support zone with 0.9550 middle of the box. For the next few weeks we should see the market trading between this two extreme points

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Update 4: We retested the 0.9350 support zone and the bottom of our range box.Next week we need a break and a close above the big round number 0.9500 for further upside. We're still in a range and us such we should expect the market to bounce between this levels

Angelwales avatar
Angelwales 18 Apr.

I like the going up ....  nice

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Metal_Mind 26 Apr.

rise and shine . Seem to be going in the right direction

Mani avatar
Mani 26 Apr.

nice

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GBP/CHF Double Bottom

After SNB decided to drop the 1.2000 EUR/CHF floor the price action on CHF crosses has been distorted however we can still find a way to guide us through the current mess by simple using support and resistance level and the box trading ranges (see Figure 1). GBP/CHF as being a cross pair has a lot of tendency to consolidate and we can find more often it's moving inside this range boxes.
Figure 1. GBP/CHF Weekly chart.

Based on the Monthly chart we can spot a big double bottom that is ta…
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Update 2: As expected the momentum continue to push higher and we're near our target. From here on I'm expecting a retracement based on Figure 1 we should see the market ranging between a wide range 1.4750 resistance zone and 1.4000 big round number and support zone

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Update 3: Unfortunately we broke above the key level 1.4750 but we still have to be patience and wait and see if there is any follow through to confirm this breakout.

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Update 4: This pair has broken outside my projection and we the momentum pushed this pair all the way up past the big round number 1.5000 and we had a strong rejection from there making a "v" shape top for now which should keep this pair under pressure in the coming weeks. Next week support stands at 1.4700 level.

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Update 5: As per my previous update I was right we indeed established a "v" shape top. Now we're big round number 1.4500 which should provide some support level for the time being. Next week we should see momentum start picking up.

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Update 6: After 2 weeks sell of this pair has finally found a bottom and we should expect previous week low to hold. So the 1.4200 level should act as support. If we manage to break above 1.4500 round number in the first days of the week there is a chance we'll hit our target

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AUD/CAD Retesting Big Resistance

AUD/CAD has been moving over the paste few years in a big range boxes and that's usually the case with a lot of pair crosses as this is their normal behavior. In Figure 1 we can tell that over the year this range boxes have narrowed and the market it's moving clearly between support and resistance.
Right now the market is at an very important inflection point which is the 0.9800 level, which is a pivot point. this level has provided in the past good opportunities and it has acted both as support…
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Update 1. Last week upside spike was a "throw over" pattern which based on Elliott Wave it signaling a reversal in price. Based on our charts the spike towards big round number 1.000 was a throw over, a false breakout above down channel. It's a also a "V" shape top and if we take in consideration we're in a downtrend we should expect the trend to resume

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Update 2: As per my previous update price has confirmed that we had a false breakout as we're now back within the channel range. Also it appears that based on Elliott Wave we're forming a flat formation in which case we should expect to see a retest of previous low at 0.9400 whihc is also around my forecast level.

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NZD/CAD Downward Channel

NZD/CAD is turning from an bullish trend into a bearish trend after we succeed in breaking the upward channel (see Figure 1) Since mid-2013 we have moved in and consistent upward channel and at the same time bullish trend. But we have turned back after we broke away from this channel and current price structure of this down wave looks very stepper signaling the bears are in control and we should expect further downside movement.
Figure 1. NZD/CAD Weekly Chart

From the weekly cha…
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Update 1: As expected last week the momentum was pressing to the downside but there is a little more to go before we hit our first support zone at 0.8700 level before to see any reaction to the upside. To the upside major resistance level is at 0.8900 ahead of the big round number 0.9000.

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Update 2: As long as we stay below 0.9000 big round number the bearish trend remains intact. Currently the sentiment is neutral at this level as both the bears and bull try to regain control of this market. We need a break and a close below that level before the market to resume downward

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NZD/CHF Trading Box Effect

Nothing much has happened with NZD/CHF in last few years as we are moving in an never ending ranging zones. On the weekly chart (see Figure 1) you can notice this trading range boxes on top of each other which are characteristic in this range environment and which clears further current price structure. Usually the top/bottom of previous range box provides support or resistance for the next trading box as old resistance has become new support and vice versa. But there are times when price do…
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Update 1:  We're still in the consolidation phase and we should expect during this time of the year with low level of liquidity the market to move in narrow ranges. Next support level remains at 0.7400 before any reaction

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Update 2: We're still trading within this big range boxes and we're going to continue to do so especially during this period of the year when liquidity is very low and the market stays within some even more narrow ranges.

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Update 3: The fact that we haven't succeeded to break above previous swing high 0.7685 suggest that we are headed back within the range box and the only way we could hit our target on time is for the market to close below 0.7585 during the Monday session this way the momentum can gain speed to the downside.

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NZD/CAD Reversal Pattern

NZD/CAD is turning from an bullish trend into a bearish trend after we succeed in breaking the upward channel (see Figure 1) Since mid-2013 we have moved in and consistent upward channel and at the same time bullish trend. But we have turned back after we broke away from this channel and current price structure of this down wave looks very stepper signaling the bears are in control and we should expect further downside movement.
Figure 1. NZD/CAD Weekly Chart

From the w…
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Update 5: As expected this past week we had another sell off an retest the 0.8700 support level without the market to be able to close below it. Right now we're only 21 pips away from our target and based on intraday charts in the first few hours of Monday we should expect the market to trade between 0.8730-8770 so there is a high chance to hit our target or at least move even closer to it.

bharatholsa avatar

congrats - well done ))

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Jignesh 5 Nov.

Nicely Done!

foreignexchange avatar

Congrats, good job

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Thanks guys:)

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NZD/JPY Sustained Bullish Trend

Since mid 2012 NZD/JPY has started to move in an healthy and sustained bullish trend(see Figure 1) which ultimately will have to retest the 2007 all time high. Usually this type of moves last anywhere between 3-5 years so that's the reason why we can expect current momentum and trend to continue as long as there is no major event to change the course of this trend. If we look on the weekly chart we can see that there is no resistance to stop the price from further advancing so it's wise to assum…
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Update 1: Unfortunately we broke below the 85.60 support level and there is further scope for more downside here. Next weekly support level comes in 82.50 from where we can expect a bounce. It seems that I was wrong on this forecast as i didn't expected this correction

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Update 2: Even though we broke below 85.60 the downside momentum is losing any force and has started moving in tight congestion zones. Only a break above the big round number 85.00 could help the bulls. For next week support stands at 83.75 any break below that level can signal that my analysis is wrong and we may heading down.

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Update 3: It seems that we have put in place a new swing low as the market was unable to take out previous swing low. From here on we should expect only upside movement

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Update 4: It seems that I was right on this one and after we manage to put 83.30 swing low in place although the market spend a lot of time in range after the initial breakout to the upside the move was extended in the direction of the breakout and we come closer to our target. From here on we should expect only upside movement and take as support level current market price of 87.40. First resistance comes in at 88.00 but I'm not sure we have enough time for our target to be meet

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NZD/CHF Trading Box Effect

Nothing much has happened with NZD/CHF in last few years as we are moving in an never ending ranging zones. On the weekly chart (see Figure 1) you can notice this trading range boxes on top of each other which are characteristic in this range environment and which clears further current price structure. Usually the top/bottom of previous range box provides support or resistance for the next trading box as old resistance has become new support and vice versa. But there are times when price do…
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Update 2: Since my last update the market has stayed in a tight congestion between 0.7550-0.7450. based on Elliott wave this is a very common price action as usually during this stage of wave 4 we are moving in an consolidation. However we should complete an abc correction here so we can expect a false break out in either direction of this congestion zone than a move back inside the range before the resumption of the bearish trend

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Update 3: We're only 30 pips away from our target and as expected we where trading inside this range  between 0.7550-0.7450 and we should continue trading inside this range in coming week as well. Key support for next week remains 0.7400 which needs to hold the market in order for our forecast to remain valid.

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Update 4: As expected the market found support at o.7400 as it was unable to break below and we already have some sort of reaction from this level. We have strong supply level at 0.7550 which should provide a good resistance and I'm hoping it will be a level good enough to give a strong momentum for another push down towards 0.7400

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Update 5: Although we broke above 0.7550 supply level it proved to be a false breakout as we're back down. For next week I'm expecting the next resistance level to be at  at 0.7500 big round number as we have a weekly close below this level it suggest further downside. We're now roughly 50 pips away from our target but Monday morning i'm expecting current sell off to resume and get closer to our forecast price.

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Update 6: AT 12:00PM we where only 30 pips away from our target but few hours later our target was hit and  the market found some temporary support right at our target of 0.7438. Overall I'm satisfied by how I've managed to predict the movements in this pair

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The Irony of Trading

Here is my quick review of my first trade:
Currency Pair: USD/TRY
Side: Long
Amount: 5Mill
Time Frame: 1h
Open Price: 2.133467
Close Price: 2.12377
PnL: -97 pips loss
Open date: 04.08.2014 07:00:20
Close Date: 05.08.2014 08:23:20
Reasons Behind the trade: This was supposed to be a quick trade between some intraday support and resistance levels nothing complicated about it. After my order was triggered the market stop moving any further and we stayed in a tight range until next day(see Figure
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Neu_spir8 avatar

Sh!t happens u know, happened to me before and laughed on myself, think all traders experienced things like that, tell u the truth, i laughed on u man,  just a little :), someone like u will overcome things like that, am still laughing, no disrespect pal.

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Neu_spir8 Yes, sh*t happens all the time, I already forgot about it:)..there is no time for crying in this business:))

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scramble 6 Aug.

I thought this was happening only to me!! :PP

Ichimoku6886 avatar

i think it down

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NZD/USD Looking Beyond the Carry Trade

For many of you who are constantly following my blog already know that I'm holding a long kiwi position and even despite recent sell of I still hold this position and you can find the full reasons behind this trade by reading my last article here: Carry Trade Returns Here is another blog post back from April: RBNZ The Most Hawkish CB
In this blog we're going to look beyond the carry trade and have a look at …
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VikaChechenkova avatar

it's so difficult!))

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