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Recent development on the trade war front did not lead to a more serious risk-off episode. Apart from the Chinese stock market, which was hit quite hard yesterday, risk assets recovered at least part of the lost ground. USD/JPY bottomed near 109.5 and is now back above 110. 200 DMA is the immediate resistance on the way to 110.5 and 111.
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Risk off as trade wars continue
Trump is said to have ordered 200B worth of tariffs on Chinese goods. That's an escalation from previous 50B - 100B clips. Risk markets understandably don't like it, and have sold off. Yen is the preferred currency so far today. USD/JPY fell below 200 DMA and 110, to as low as 109.70. We'll see if we get any follow-through as European markets open.
Yen the most wanted currency this week
U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against the commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit with reduced volatility.
My positions today - risk off
Moje pozície sú dnes nastavené na Risk off, to znamená, že som long na japonskom jene a americkom doláre. Moje pozície sú nasledovné:
EURUSD - short - objem 5 mil. - strata 52 pips = -25 000 USD
EURJPY - short - objem 5 mil. - strata 36 pips = -16 000 USD
GBPJPY - short - objem 5 mil. - strata 24 pips = - 11 000 USD
USDZAR - long - objem 5 mil. - strata 600 pips = - 23 000 USD
USDMXN - long - objem 5 mil. - strata 1260 pips = - 35 000 USD
Všetky tieto obchody by som najradšej zatvoril aspoň na n…
EURUSD - short - objem 5 mil. - strata 52 pips = -25 000 USD
EURJPY - short - objem 5 mil. - strata 36 pips = -16 000 USD
GBPJPY - short - objem 5 mil. - strata 24 pips = - 11 000 USD
USDZAR - long - objem 5 mil. - strata 600 pips = - 23 000 USD
USDMXN - long - objem 5 mil. - strata 1260 pips = - 35 000 USD
Všetky tieto obchody by som najradšej zatvoril aspoň na n…
USD/CHF nearing 0.95 level
Yesterday's bout of risk-off in markets didn't impact USD/CHF as much as USD/JPY. The former continues to move in tandem with EUR/USD, especially since U.S. dollar weakness has been driving most pairs recently.
USD/CHF broke the six-month consolidation to the downside and fell below 2011 - 2016 trendline in the process. No sign of SNB as yet but EUR/CHF is well off the floor anyway. Area near 0.95 looks like a strong support with 0.97 the initial resistance.
USD/CHF broke the six-month consolidation to the downside and fell below 2011 - 2016 trendline in the process. No sign of SNB as yet but EUR/CHF is well off the floor anyway. Area near 0.95 looks like a strong support with 0.97 the initial resistance.
AUD/JPY
Technical Indicator used: horizonta/verticall lines
support and resistence
Ema 200 / 100 / 50 / 20
Weekly trend, monthly trend down, the pair has corrected up to the ema 200, the ema 200 acts as resistence at the moment. Atr falling, the pair will stay in sideways move.
Weekly chart:
Monthly Chart:
support and resistence
Ema 200 / 100 / 50 / 20
Weekly trend, monthly trend down, the pair has corrected up to the ema 200, the ema 200 acts as resistence at the moment. Atr falling, the pair will stay in sideways move.
Weekly chart:
Monthly Chart:
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Yen breaks 110
USD/JPY broke below 110 in yesterday's risk-off trading. Stocks fell but later recovered, gold soared, but the main driver remains 10-year UST yield, which closed below 2.30% for the first time since November. Oil continues to recover amid geopolitical uncertainty.
The pair extended its decline overnight. The pullbacks have been shallow so far. 110 is also 50.0% retracement of the Trump rally. A possible target is 1.0850 - 1.09 (Channel support, 200 DMA). Area around 110 should now act as a resi…
The pair extended its decline overnight. The pullbacks have been shallow so far. 110 is also 50.0% retracement of the Trump rally. A possible target is 1.0850 - 1.09 (Channel support, 200 DMA). Area around 110 should now act as a resi…
Swissie pulls back
Swissie staged a massive pullback yesterday, worth about 135 pips with a daily range of 170 pips. Position squaring at quarter-end and before FOMC meeting and U.S. election were all cited as factors for the risk-off move.
The pair broke and closed below 50, 100 and 200 DMA and stalled ahead of 0.9725. It made a marginal new low overnight before a weak rally. 0.9750 - 0.98 looks like a good sell zone. 0.97 is the initial support.
The pair broke and closed below 50, 100 and 200 DMA and stalled ahead of 0.9725. It made a marginal new low overnight before a weak rally. 0.9750 - 0.98 looks like a good sell zone. 0.97 is the initial support.
Loonie still in a range
After falling in five consecutive days, from 1.31 last Tuesday to 1.2825 on Monday, USD/CAD snapped more than half of the decline yesterday.
Nearly 5% fall in oil amid more general risk-off environment saw the pair rising back above 1.30. That puts 1.32 back into view and possibly 1.35 on a successful breakout.
Nearly 5% fall in oil amid more general risk-off environment saw the pair rising back above 1.30. That puts 1.32 back into view and possibly 1.35 on a successful breakout.